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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: HUR Jose Lounge
      Fri Sep 08 2017 01:11 PM

Recon flew into Jose for the first time today and found the center to be a little south of prior estimates. Additionally, winds were also stronger than satellite derived estimates, and Jose is now a 150 MPH high-end Cat 4. There were some SFMR returns suggestive of Cat 5, but they may have been contaminated. Either way, Jose is now a very powerful and compact high-end Major, with a track that puts some of the very same islands just hit by Irma at risk again. Recon vort:
Quote:


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 14:56Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 12 in 2017
Storm Name: Jose (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 13:58:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°12'N 56°54'W (16.2N 56.9W)
B. Center Fix Location: 280 statute miles (450 km) to the NE (40°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,576m (8,451ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 125kts (~ 143.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NW (312°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 41° at 142kts (From the NE at ~ 163.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NW (316°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 940mb (27.76 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) which was observed 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the E (83°) from the flight level center at 12:08:00Z




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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* HURRICANE Jose Lounge cieldumortModerator Fri Sep 08 2017 01:11 PM
. * * Re: HURRICANE Jose Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 22 2017 09:37 PM
. * * Re: HURRICANE Jose Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 18 2017 09:05 PM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 11 2017 08:41 PM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge Major Sharpe   Thu Sep 14 2017 05:03 AM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 14 2017 07:37 AM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 14 2017 12:40 PM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge BloodstarModerator   Fri Sep 15 2017 01:30 AM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 15 2017 05:27 AM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 15 2017 08:18 AM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Sep 15 2017 09:47 AM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 15 2017 12:06 PM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge doug   Mon Sep 18 2017 12:20 PM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge Prospero   Sat Sep 16 2017 09:43 PM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge JMII   Tue Sep 12 2017 11:55 AM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge OrlandoDan   Mon Sep 11 2017 11:34 PM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 09 2017 03:18 PM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge Major Sharpe   Mon Sep 11 2017 09:45 AM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 09 2017 01:19 PM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 09 2017 05:49 AM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 08 2017 01:11 PM
. * * Re: HUR Jose Lounge flnative   Fri Sep 08 2017 05:40 PM
. * * Re: E Atlantic Tropical Wave BloodstarModerator   Sun Sep 03 2017 12:51 PM
. * * Re: E Atlantic Tropical Wave MissBecky   Thu Sep 07 2017 04:16 AM
. * * Re: E Atlantic Tropical Wave cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 07 2017 06:50 AM

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