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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE
      Thu Sep 21 2017 12:52 PM

While a technical La Niña for the coming fall and winter is not a sure bet (forecast is about a 55-60% chance), even the cooler bias is useful in forecasting activity trends in the Atlantic basin for at least the rest of this year.

ENSO neutral conditions actually tend to be even somewhat more favorable for big-time banner years (2005, 2017, etc.) overall, but La Niña is very supportive of active to hyperactive Atlantic seasons.

Speaking just about the months of October, Octobers during La Niñas are usually about 50% more active than neutral - and October is right around the corner.

A few other things La Niñas can usually be counted on for: Increasing odds of sub-tropical cyclone formation, many of which go on to become fully tropical. Also, lowering of shear over the Caribbean, thus helping cook up and fuel deeply warm-cored tropical cyclones there.

This lowering of shear over the Caribbean heading into the back-half of this already hyperactive 2017 season raises some alarm bells, especially for the Yucatan, Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Bermuda. Many late-season tropical cyclones that begin in the Caribbean go on to impact these areas. (See image below)

Dr. Ryan Truchelut recently touched on all this with a good article in the Tallahassee Democrat (Link).




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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator Thu Sep 21 2017 12:52 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 27 2017 10:16 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 27 2017 10:18 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 27 2017 10:20 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 04 2017 09:35 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 04 2017 09:46 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 07 2017 12:26 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 07 2017 02:38 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 14 2017 04:22 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 14 2017 04:50 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 14 2017 10:31 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE doug   Wed Oct 18 2017 02:02 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 14 2017 04:53 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 24 2017 04:01 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 24 2017 03:59 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 24 2017 12:18 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 22 2017 01:21 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 20 2017 09:34 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE craigm   Thu Sep 21 2017 08:56 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 21 2017 12:52 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 21 2017 03:17 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE Keith B   Thu Sep 21 2017 06:56 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE Keith B   Fri Sep 22 2017 04:48 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 20 2017 06:24 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? DarlynDeville   Wed Sep 20 2017 07:01 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? DarlynDeville   Wed Sep 20 2017 08:35 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 20 2017 03:22 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 18 2017 08:26 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 18 2017 04:53 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 13 2017 11:12 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 11 2017 02:26 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 10 2017 02:51 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 08 2017 05:55 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 08 2017 01:45 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 07 2017 04:03 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 06 2017 07:30 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 06 2017 06:50 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 06 2017 07:22 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 03 2017 12:48 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 01 2017 09:34 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 01 2017 09:03 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 01 2017 08:44 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Thu Aug 31 2017 10:02 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Mon Aug 14 2017 12:10 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? MichaelA   Tue Aug 22 2017 12:54 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 22 2017 03:32 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 09 2017 02:26 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? Keith B   Wed Aug 09 2017 06:22 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 09 2017 06:48 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Thu Jul 20 2017 07:04 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Thu Jul 20 2017 05:52 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Thu Jul 20 2017 05:34 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Thu Jul 20 2017 04:34 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Sun Jul 16 2017 07:49 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Tue Jul 18 2017 09:19 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Tue Jul 18 2017 09:47 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Mon Jul 10 2017 01:40 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Jul 05 2017 10:04 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Tue Jun 20 2017 03:30 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Sat Jun 17 2017 04:06 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 06 2017 02:15 AM

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