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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 48 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Nate Lounge
      Thu Oct 05 2017 09:59 PM

Kudos, GFS. One of a few times this season that the new and improved version has edged out the Euro, with the latter now playing catch up and taking Nate, or "Nate," depending on organization, more up towards Louisiana instead of Florida - the result of the High to his northeast being stronger, with the non-tropical trof and closed surface low now in the northeastern Gulf tracking further west, and not developing or redeveloping east of Florida.

Track-wise, Nate, or "Nate," is now more certain, but intensity remains unusually uncertain, with the following factors, and others, making this part of the forecast decidedly unreliable.

* Tropical Cyclone Nate is embedded within a large Central American Gyre, or CAG (See main page), and this serves both to provide Nate with a moist cocoon, but also hold back the TC a bit, like a parent clutching its offspring too close, keeping it at home with younger siblings, not allowing it to fully stand on its own. This is readily apparent today with the explosion of deep convection to his southwest that is blowing off thunderstorm tops to the northeast and imparting modest southwesterly shear over the cyclone, which was not well handled by models (and other small scale features that are of too small a resolution for globals to generally nail down with much accuracy, if at all).

* Nate is a smaller TC, and these tend to be susceptible to outside forces in an outsized way, with much higher potential to rapidly strengthen, weaken, or even fall part, than average to large size TCs.

* Provided Nate does not fall apart over land (low, but non-zero chance), the cyclone is about to cross over some outrageously warm waters in places - potential fuel for any fire.

* However, Nate's steering currents are about to increase rapidly out of the south-southeast to southeast, limiting his time over these pockets of exceptionally warm waters - and, additionally, potentially even making it a challenge for the cyclone to remain closed off. It is thus possible that Nate makes landfall as a very, very strong wave (low, but non-zero chance), or have something of a lopsided nature.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* HURRICANE Nate MikeCAdministrator Thu Oct 05 2017 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Nate Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 06 2017 03:14 AM
. * * Re: Nate Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 07 2017 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Nate Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 07 2017 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Nate Lounge Genesis   Sat Oct 07 2017 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Nate Lounge richg   Sat Oct 07 2017 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Nate Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 07 2017 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Nate Lounge BloodstarModerator   Fri Oct 06 2017 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Nate Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 06 2017 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Nate Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 06 2017 02:35 AM
. * * Re: Nate Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 06 2017 02:06 AM
. * * Re: Nate Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 05 2017 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Nate Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 06 2017 10:50 AM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 04 2017 02:03 AM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 04 2017 06:05 AM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) Lamar-Plant City   Wed Oct 04 2017 12:26 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) Marknole   Wed Oct 04 2017 07:19 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) Keith B   Wed Oct 04 2017 07:37 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) Keith B   Wed Oct 04 2017 08:28 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) JMII   Thu Oct 05 2017 10:58 AM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) Prospero   Thu Oct 05 2017 07:03 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) JMII   Fri Oct 06 2017 10:45 AM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 05 2017 07:14 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) Prospero   Thu Oct 05 2017 07:47 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 04 2017 01:03 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 04 2017 02:49 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) OrlandoDan   Wed Oct 04 2017 06:44 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) OrlandoDan   Tue Oct 03 2017 08:48 PM

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