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General Discussion >> Hurricane History
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Average Start - Busy Finish
      Sun Aug 24 2003 10:47 PM

I'll start this look back in history with an excerpt from NHC:

"For example, by the beginning of September in an average year we would expect to have had four named systems, two of which would be hurricanes and one of which would be of category 3 or greater in strength."

Well we haven't had a 'major' yet, but we have had 5 named storms, so it certainly fits the definition of an average start. I decided to take a look back using the following criteria:

A season total of 10 to 15 storms (i.e., an average to above average season).
Seasons with at least 4 named storms on or after October 1st (i.e., those seasons that had a busy finish - no matter how they started).
The number of storms that had been classified by August 25th.

Here are the results:
1891 - 11/5/3 (11 total / 5 on or after Oct 1st / 3 storms by 8/25)
1906 - 11/5/3
1916 - 14/4/5
1932 - 11/4/2 (one in May)
1934 - 11/4/4
1942 - 10/4/3
1950 - 13/6 (all in October)/3
1953 - 14/6 (one in Dec)/2 (one in May)
1961 - 11/4/1 (only one storm prior to Aug 25th)
1990 - 14/4/8 (busy start and busy finish - not much during the peak)
1996 - 13/4/6 (ditto 1990)
1999 - 12/4/5 (does this one sound like this year?)
2001 - 15/7/4

So far, we've got a very normal season and even if September (which is still a week away) turns out to be relatively quiet, we'll probably make up for it in October. It just seems to me to be one of those kinds of years.
Cheers,
ED

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* Average Start - Busy Finish Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Aug 24 2003 10:47 PM

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