Looks like the Atlantic is about to enter a short period of less activity that will probably last until about August 20th, give or take a couple of days. Shear zones are still persistent and the west Atlantic off-shore trough has been reinforced by an uncommon August cold front. Dr Gray recently lowered his expectations by one storm, due to an expected weak El Nino.
In retrospect, my January Outlook of 10/5/1 was probably too low and my June update of 15/8/3 now seems too high - reality at season end is likely to be somewhere in between - closer to 12/7/3.
Invest 91L (the former TD 2) gave it's best, but could not overcome a significant west to southwest shear. This morning it is difficult to locate any circulation - maybe near 17N 78.4W at 13Z, moving west northwest with very little convection - although another flare-up could still happen today. It may not be done yet, but its getting close to extinction.
Invest 92L, with overnight convection currently on the wane, is a complex system with multiple centers of rotation from 22N 52.5W to 23N 55.5W moving west northwest and fighting southwesterly shear. It will still encounter that shear for the next 36 to 48 hours and as it approaches the west Atlantic trough, movement will likely become more northwesterly. It too is running out of time for any significant development.
A large well-formed tropical wave with spotty convection near 9N 43W at 13Z is moving to the west northwest under light southerly shear. The wave is benign at the moment, but could become the 'sleeper' in the basin with some chance for additional development on Monday.
A small weak tropical wave with good convection to the east was located near 12N 62W at 13Z. It was moving to the west northwest into an area of drier air. Another weak to moderate CV wave will enter the Atlantic early tomorrow while the remains of Alex head toward the British Isles.
I think that pretty much covers the basin, and while I don't expect much development, we'll leave the light on just in case. ED
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