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Although still very unlikely to develop or be very strong, there could be an area to watch in the in little more than a week out from energy currently associated with the systems in the East Pacific.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 607 (Milton), US Major: 607 (Milton), FL Any: 607 (Milton), FL Major: 607 (Milton)
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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2002 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - SW Atlantic
      Sat Aug 24 2002 03:46 PM

Not too much to monitor in the basin, however a tropical wave east of Tobago has retained a weak LLCC near 9.5N 56W at 24/18ZThe convection, which had moved westward away from the center, is once again attempting to rebuild toward the center. The low level center itself seems to be anchored in place at the moment with little movement over the past six hours. SST in the area is 28.5C or about 0.5C above normal. On an eventual WNW track the system would encounter increasing westerly shear. The Caribbean Sea, usually an area of drier airmass, has a higher than normal water vapor level. The system has already moved well to the west of any area of significant subsidence, but it could entrain some drier air from the northern sections of South America. A WNW then NW track into oblivion (shear) seems likely. If the system takes a course just north of west it would stay north of the South American coast and just south of the significant shear zone (but this is not a likely scenario). If the system should eventually move more directly north it would avoid most of the significant shear (a possible scenario).
Cheers,
ED

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* Area of Interest - SW Atlantic Ed DunhamAdministrator Sat Aug 24 2002 03:46 PM

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