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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Frances in the Evening
      Wed Sep 01 2004 05:14 PM

10pm
A few of the models trended right, but the consensus still keeps it on track currently. More to come at 11PM.

Original Update
Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!

The 5PM National Hurricane Center update is out, and they have kept the track similar to what they had earlier, which is forcing hard decisions for evacuation orders.

The Florida State Superensemble model still puts the storm through Florida, while two others GFL and GFDL slow it down and turn it more northward. So, unfortunately, confidence in the track is still low. Watches aren't up for Florida yet, but I imagine they would be by 11PM tonight. It is important to note that most of the models still do take it in across Florida.


Image thanks to Skeetobite

How strong the current ridge remains is what may or may not drive Frances inward across Florida. Time will tell, and fluctuations in intensity may happen. 11PM will be telling.

Some other notes include a possible tightening up of the windfield, as found by recon, and perhaps a slight elongation on satellite imagery.

County By County Info: (Updated as received.. in alpha order-- click on county name for County EM website) Updated: 5:12PM
Please use Local Media for the absolute latest information!
Brevard: Brevard County will issue a Mandatory evacuation beginning 2 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 2, for the following areas:

* Barrier Islands, including Merritt Island
* Mobile, manufactured homes countywide
* All primary evacuation shelters (listed in the phone book, page 55) will open at 2 p.m. Thursday Sept. 2

Indian River: Shelters will be opened at noon tomorrow, but evacuation out of Florida may be the better answer. Mandatory evacuations for the barrier island and mobile homes will occur tomorrow beginning at noon. Limited shelters are available because of the intense winds. We will have routes for evacuation tomorrow. Remember, the entire east coast of Florida is going to evacuate because of this storm. School is closed Thursday and Friday. A list of shelters will be available in the morning.
Flagler:
A voluntary evacuation of the area east of I-95, mobile homes and homes in flood prone and low lying areas in Flagler County will go into effect at noon Thursday.
Lake:: School Closed Friday
Martin: plans to urge up to 7,500 residents to evacuate low-lying areas starting at noon tomorrow.
Orange: School Closed Friday
Osceola: School Closed Friday
Palm Beach: Mandatory Evacuations for Barrier Islands and lowlying areas begin tomorrow 2PM.. some may start earlier. School half day Thursday, closed Friday
Seminole: School Closed Friday
St. Lucie: Click link for updates. Announcements tomorrow AM.
Volusia: Community college and public schools are closed Thursday and Friday.
Request for info (With source) for these type of announcements!
Please listen to local media for updated information on these areas.


Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)



General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Frances in the Evening MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 01 2004 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Neptune   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening 52255225   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening MikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening spook   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Mooshie-SC   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening recmod   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:20 PM
. * * Re: best sat ever seen... MIkeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:25 PM
. * * wobbles, eyewall stunts HanKFranK   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts recmod   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:40 PM
. * * Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts rickonboat   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:38 PM
. * * Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:40 PM
. * * Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts WeatherNLU   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:39 PM
. * * Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts Rasvar   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:07 PM
. * * Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts recmod   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:14 PM
. * * Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts Rasvar   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:26 PM
. * * 11:00 will be telling... LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:21 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... recmod   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:41 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... Brett Adair   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Dropsondes.... Big Lot Specials next month Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:02 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:01 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:29 PM
. * * 11pm Discussion Justin in Miami   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes recmod   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes Jeffmidtown   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes BabyCat   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:45 PM
. * * Outflow Improving recmod   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Outflow Improving HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Outflow Improving wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Outflow Improving DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Outflow Improving Jeffmidtown   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Outflow Improving HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:58 PM
. * * WOW...see comments... LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Re: WOW...see comments... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:20 PM
. * * Re: WOW...see comments... LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: WOW...see comments... Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: WOW...see comments... Redbird   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:19 AM
. * * New Thread John C   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:24 AM
. * * Re: WOW...see comments... meto   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:34 PM
. * * Re: WOW...see comments... HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:29 PM
. * * Re: WOW...see comments... scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: WOW...see comments... LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Outflow Improving Seele   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Outflow Improving Jeffmidtown   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Outflow Improving scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Melbourne Weather Statement recmod   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Melbourne Weather Statement RevUp   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:31 PM
. * * Three Key Statements from Stewart..... did you catch em Florida Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:39 PM
. * * Now it's a tad more clear... LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Now it's a tad more clear... Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Now it's a tad more clear... Bev   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Now it's a tad more clear... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Dropsondes ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Watches WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:24 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... RevUp   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:51 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:43 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... RockledgeRick   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:56 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:02 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:52 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:49 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:03 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:05 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:54 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... StormHound   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:01 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... RevUp   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:00 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... Rasvar   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:07 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... RevUp   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:26 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... Rasvar   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 will be telling... nppam   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:05 PM
. * * Pretty good loop... teal61   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:14 PM
. * * Excellent forecast from Gary Gray Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:32 PM
. * * from left field HanKFranK   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:12 PM
. * * Re: best sat ever seen... kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:31 PM
. * * Re: best sat ever seen... MikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:47 PM
. * * Re: best sat ever seen... SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:31 PM
. * * Re: best sat ever seen... Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:15 PM
. * * Still no Hurricane Watch for South FL BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Duval County and St. Johns County Neptune   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Duval County and St. Johns County kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Duval County and St. Johns County ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Humanriff   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:26 PM
. * * Re: whats up with link? fred08   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Janill   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Heather   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening bobbi   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening luki   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Tarpon   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening spook   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Tarpon   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:39 PM
. * * GFDL Doombot!   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:46 PM
. * * Models SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Re: GFDL teal61   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:54 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Chad   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:15 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Doombot!   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:09 PM
. * * Re: GFDL wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:15 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Shawn W.   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:13 PM
. * * Re: GFDL annon.   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:18 PM
. * * Re: GFDL rjp   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:15 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Chad   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:02 PM
. * * Palm Beach County WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:07 PM
. * * Re: GFDL spook   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:05 PM
. * * Re: GFDL BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:18 PM
. * * For all you Wobble Watchers Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:23 PM
. * * Re: For all you Wobble Watchers DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:36 PM
. * * Re: For all you Wobble Watchers wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:40 PM
. * * Re: For all you Wobble Watchers DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:57 PM
. * * Re: For all you Wobble Watchers CantoreFan   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:03 PM
. * * Re: For all you Wobble Watchers eligrace   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:04 PM
. * * Cantore LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 PM
. * * Re: For all you Wobble Watchers Keith234   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:03 PM
. * * Re: For all you Wobble Watchers ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Re: For all you Wobble Watchers MikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:56 PM
. * * Re: For all you Wobble Watchers recmod   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:55 PM
. * * Re: For all you Wobble Watchers MikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:02 PM
. * * Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy zacros   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy nppam   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy MikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy PFSThunder   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:08 PM
. * * Re: For all you Wobble Watchers BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:28 PM
. * * Re: For all you Wobble Watchers ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:31 PM
. * * A request & A challenge... LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:53 PM
. * * Frances WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Frances Kevin   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Frances andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Frances ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Chad   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening 52255225   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening JeffSD   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Humanriff   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:15 PM
. * * won't get in the gulf with this one... rickonboat   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:34 PM
. * * Cat 5 Rick Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:58 PM
. * * Re: won't get in the gulf with this one... 52255225   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:52 PM
. * * Re: won't get in the gulf with this one... Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:37 PM
. * * Eyewall Doombot!   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Eyewall BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening HanKFranK   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening InitinORL   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Jeffmidtown   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening BillD   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening WeatherWoman   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Chad   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:11 PM
. * * Hurricane Audio... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening fred08   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:37 PM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Robert   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Jeffmidtown   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Jeffmidtown   Wed Sep 01 2004 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Alex K.   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:39 PM
. * * Upon further review... Kevin   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening DroopGB31   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:23 PM

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