Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Tropical Cyclone Forecast - 2002
Thu May 02 2002 10:51 PM
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Once again, its time to take a look at the upcoming Atlantic tropical season, and once again, an active season seems likely. Last year, an unexpected 15 named storms were recorded, and while I don't believe that this season will be quite as busy, it will be busy enough. The much heralded El Nino had shown signs of early development in the equatorial Pacific, however in the past three weeks it has totally collapsed into neutral sea surface temperature conditions. Even if the El Nino should redevelop, it would be weak at best and would not have an influence on the upcoming season. Sea surface temperatures in the central and southern Caribbean Sea are already uncommonly warm for this time of year with readings in the low 80s. An Accuweather analysis notes that when an early Spring El Nino stutter-steps and stops, the southeastern U.S. often experiences a dry and hot period. The analysis also notes that this is usually followed by a moderately active hurricane season. The best analog years for this type of ENSO event are 1959, 1988 and 1970. Upper air patterns in the tropical Atlantic support a tropical season similar to 1959. The upper trough off the east coast, which had protected the U.S. coastline for the past two years, has eroded and lifted to the northeast. The tropical jetstream which had extended from Central America to the Bahamas has become more zonal in its flow and has moved east and south to lower latitudes in the central tropical Atlantic. This all points to a rather quiet Cape Verde season and a much more active Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Season. It also increases the risk for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf and southeast U.S. coastlines. An early season (June) storm is possible and I believe that the season will extend into late October. I anticipate two U.S. hurricane landfalls this season (and one of those landfalls will probably be a major hurricane - 3 of the 5 best analog years had a major hurricane landfall along the U.S. coast). Here are my numbers for the 2002 season:
12 named storms
7 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes
Hurricane preparations which are made just before a storm strikes are hurricane preparations which are made too late. This is the time, before the Atlantic gets busy, to start thinking about what you would need and what precautions you would take should a storm threaten your area.
Cheers,
ED
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