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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic
      Thu Sep 02 2004 04:39 PM

Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!

(Click here to read personal reports from the Bahama Islands),

Tropical Depression #9 forms in the East Atlantic has a good chance to become Ivan .... ,moving west toward the Caribbean... Time to watch later.

Next..

The 5PM position of Hurricane Frances remains on track, slightly adjusted right (closer to Melbourne)... however... it bends it back more left to raise the chances of a Gulf of Mexico event as well..

The windspeed is also slightly down and pressure a little up, but i'm thinking it will fluctuate around this intensity for a while.



Here's an important notice from the Melbourne NWS office and Tony Christaldi:

1) Because of the oblique angle at which Frances is expected to approach the coast... emphasis *still* should not be placed on the point of the projected landfall of the cetner. Frances' wind field is very large: Tropical storm force or greater winds ecompass more than 50 thousand square miles. Preperations should be made throughout the watch/warning area assuming a *direct* hit from a major Hurricane.


2) Attempting to extrapolate short term (1 to 3 hour) trochiodal wobbles into a longer term motion is prone to be erroneous... especially given the current forward speed. Which is about 10 MPH less than what Hurricane Charley was moving at landfall.

3) For those looking for Comparisons to Hurricane Floyd. The synoptic patterns between Floyd and Frances are completely different. There is no short wave trough of significant amplitude over or approaching the southeast United States or western Atlantic ocean.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:

Melbourne (East Central Florida)
Miami (South Florida)
Key West (Florida Keys)
Tampa Bay (West Central Florida)

Local county by county information will no longer be updated unles there is breaking news here -- it's just impossible to keep up because of the size of the area under Hurricane Watch. Use the links in the last article to view county emergency management webpages. Florida Disaster.org is the state em page, with links to locals as well.

Definitely more to come later...

** SITE NOTE ** This website is receiving way beyond record traffic today, it will be slow, it will go down ocasionally, but should be back up shortly when that happens. We've done everything we can to help this along short of dumping zillions into bandwidth and hardware to keep it going. Apologies in advance.

Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
TD#9 Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)



General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 02 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic Robin   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Winds down at 11pm Jamiewx   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Winds down at 11pm LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Winds down at 11pm- correction Jamiewx   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Winds down at 11pm- correction Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:15 PM
. * * NEW THREAD! LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Winds down at 11pm JaxBeachMan   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Winds down at 11pm LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Winds down at 11pm RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Winds down at 11pm Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Winds down at 11pm HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Models danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Winds down at 11pm Joe   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Winds down at 11pm Rabbit   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic jiml9   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic jimmy99   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic 4192   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic luki   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic Hawdon Supreme   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic Waiting   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic *DELETED* Karen   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic obshaz   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic spook   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:01 PM
. * * Frances Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Frances Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Frances recmod   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Frances SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Frances RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Re: Frances SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Frances AmateurJohn   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Frances Bev   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic obshaz   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic bobbi/lois   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic bell   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic RevRandy   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:54 PM
. * * Lakeland taking down street lights... Londovir   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:50 PM
. * * Dumb newbie question about the new map and "red" and "blue" areas Hurricaned   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Dumb newbie question about the new map and "red" and "blue" areas SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Dumb newbie question about the new map and "red" and "blue" areas ThirdRay   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Updates WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Updates tony   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Updates BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Dumb newbie question about the new map and "red" and "blue" areas jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic mp3reed   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:08 PM
. * * Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!! dhcp   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!! Pam was in Vero   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!! Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!! WeatherNLU   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!! Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!! 4192   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!! 4192   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!! Cathy   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!! spook   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:05 PM
. * * Closer... more detail/cities/streets SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets francois   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:42 PM
. * * Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:51 PM
. * * NEW THREAD!!! LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets francois   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets Ricreig   Fri Sep 03 2004 12:14 AM
. * * Sats... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Sats... spook   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:51 PM
. * * Track WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Sats... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Sats... WeatherNLU   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Sats... spook   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:47 PM
. * * Curfews WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Sats... MIAMIFL   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Sats... Hawdon Supreme   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Sats... Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Sats... Hurricaned   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Sats... Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Sats... unregistered   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Sats... jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Sats... jlauderdal   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Sats... GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Sats... RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Sats... kirdona   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Sats... jlauderdal   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:21 PM
. * * Reports from the Bahamas LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Reports from the Bahamas cjzydeco   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Reports from the Bahamas SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Reports from the Bahamas Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Sats... BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Sats... doug   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Sats... cjzydeco   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Sats... doug   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Sats... spook   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:11 PM
. * * main board content HanKFranK   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:26 PM
. * * Definite west jog IMO Frank P   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:20 PM
. * * 8:43 vortex message Londovir   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: 8:43 vortex message WeatherNLU   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:33 PM
. * * Re: 8:43 vortex message teal61   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:45 PM
. * * Really Starting To Wrap Up! SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Really Starting To Wrap Up! danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Sats... doug   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Sats... BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:33 PM
. * * Old Met Vet Nash Roberts Frank P   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Sats... LONNY307   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Sats... Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Sats... Bruce   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Sats... HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Sats... TBAJE   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Sats... SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Sats... spook   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Sats... FlaRebel   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets FlaRebel   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:41 PM
. * * I find the Orlando information confusing! Hurricaned   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:07 PM
. * * Re: I find the Orlando information confusing! Clark   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:31 PM
. * * NHC Update... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:33 PM
. * * Re: NHC Update... SOUTHFLAHAPPTGAL   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:40 PM
. * * Re: NHC Update... Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:40 PM
. * * Re: NHC Update... SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:36 PM
. * * Re: I find the Orlando information confusing! Bell   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:16 PM
. * * Re: I find the Orlando information confusing! BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:37 PM
. * * Miami, poured for five minutes and sky was blue a minute later LoisCane   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Miami, poured for five minutes and sky was blue a minute later Hurricaned   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:45 PM
. * * Orlando outlook. Doombot!   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:49 PM
. * * Re: I find the Orlando information confusing! Cocoa Beach   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:12 PM
. * * Re: I find the Orlando information confusing! alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:10 PM
. * * Re: I find the Orlando information confusing! Hurricaned   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:12 PM
. * * Re: I find the Orlando information confusing! alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:18 PM
. * * frances get stuck HanKFranK   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:35 PM
. * * Re: I find the Orlando information confusing! spoo   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:26 PM
. * * Re: I find the Orlando information confusing! casps   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic Tropic Mark   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic AgentB   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:18 PM
. * * New Vortex wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: New Vortex caneman   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic elcuco   Fri Sep 03 2004 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic clyde w.   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic Chopper Davie   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic Doombot!   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic Chopper Davie   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:34 PM
. * * another 6 hours.... rickonboat   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:32 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... Todd   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:55 PM
. * * San Salvador.... rickonboat   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:07 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:02 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... Todd   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:05 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:10 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... SirCane   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:31 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... spook   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:22 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... Rabbit   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:29 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... meto   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... spook   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:40 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... Karen   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:15 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... spook   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:23 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... AgentB   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:38 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:42 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... spook   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:31 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... 52255225   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:31 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... Todd   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:17 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:35 PM
. * * New Eye Reformation? SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:42 PM
. * * 5pm Advisory StormHound   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:37 PM
. * * Re: 5pm Advisory DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:47 PM
. * * Re: 5pm Advisory wxnole   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Re: 5pm Advisory AgentB   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:11 PM
. * * Re: 5pm Advisory BillD   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:17 PM
. * * Re: 5pm Advisory spook   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:28 PM
. * * Re: 5pm Advisory wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:52 PM
. * * Re: 5pm Advisory spook   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:12 PM
. * * Re: another 6 hours.... 52255225   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:35 PM
. * * Lower wind speed at landfall? StormHound   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Lower wind speed at landfall? clyde w.   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Lower wind speed at landfall? StormHound   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Lower wind speed at landfall? casps   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Lower wind speed at landfall? LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Lower wind speed at landfall? cas   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Lower wind speed at landfall? casps   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic rich   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:57 PM

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