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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3951
Loc: Orlando, FL
Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica
      Sat Sep 11 2004 08:15 AM

Overnight Ivan deepened at one point, possibly briefly to Camille levels, but then lstarted an eyewall replacement cycle and weakened a bit.

That's not the real news, however, that is although Jamaica still received very heavy rains and wind, and likely lots of problems, the eye of the Hurricane remained to the south of the island. Hurricane Ivan 's currently just southwest of the Island. Which is great news.

Although the storm was forecast to clip the western edge of Jamaica, the overnight "wobble" to the west will keep it from doing so. It's still not clear Jamaica now, so currently their winds are getting high, but Jamaica was spared the extreme worst part of the storm.

This leftward motion has increased the chance for a panhandle strike later on, but the cone of error is still extremely large. It's interesting to note that forecasts have been overdoing the motion to the right. It will be interesting watching the trends as it heads closer to Cuba.



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Event RelatedLinks
Jamaican Radar (long and short range)
Jamaican Weather Service
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica MikeCAdministrator Sat Sep 11 2004 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica Cane Watcher   Sat Sep 11 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica Crystal   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:42 AM
. * * Hurricane winds in Orlando? Hurricaned   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:26 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? Kdubs   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:30 AM
. * * Spaghetti model down? belleami   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Spaghetti model down? Terra   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Spaghetti model down? RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? InOrlando   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? Ronn   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:52 AM
. * * Ronn SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:55 AM
. * * GOM fo sho rickonboat   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:09 AM
. * * Re: GOM fo sho RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:16 AM
. * * Re: GOM fo sho trinibaje   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:17 AM
. * * Re: GOM fo sho 52255225   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:24 AM
. * * Re: GOM fo sho HCW   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:21 AM
. * * Re: GOM fo sho Kimster   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:58 AM
. * * Re: GOM fo sho RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:31 AM
. * * Re: GOM fo sho Redbird   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Ronn SC Bill   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Ronn RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Ronn HMY   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Ronn RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Ronn Redbird   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Ronn RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Ronn 52255225   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Ronn Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Ronn RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Ronn SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Ronn scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Models Storm Cooper   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Models HCW   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Models LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Models Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Models Redbird   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Models MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Models Redbird   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:48 PM
. * * eye wall rebuilding project rickonboat   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: eye wall rebuilding project rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:36 PM
. * * cranking up again rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:56 PM
. * * Re: cranking up again MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:58 PM
. * * Re: eye wall rebuilding project tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re: eye wall rebuilding project tazmanian93   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: eye wall rebuilding project FireAng85   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: eye wall rebuilding project tazmanian93   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: eye wall rebuilding project FireAng85   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:02 PM
. * * Re: eye wall rebuilding project FireAng85   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:24 PM
. * * Re: eye wall rebuilding project Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Trough's Effect On Ivan SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan willy   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:08 PM
. * * Willy SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan James88   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan ShaggyDude   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan HMY   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan Second Shift   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:16 PM
. * * Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:33 PM
. * * is the canadian model reliable? waatcher   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:36 PM
. * * Re: is the canadian model reliable? Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson StormHound   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson willy   Sat Sep 11 2004 03:06 PM
. * * Willy SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Willy willy   Sat Sep 11 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Opinions on current motion Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Clark SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan Second Shift   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan AgentB   Sat Sep 11 2004 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan DroopGB31   Sat Sep 11 2004 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:45 PM
. * * Canadian Club for Steve? LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:53 PM
. * * What? Western Gulf? SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:57 PM
. * * current path rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:50 PM
. * * Re: current path rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:58 PM
. * * Re: current path LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:59 PM
. * * 912 mb Frank P   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:55 PM
. * * Re: 912 mb mud1967   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:11 PM
. * * Re: current path MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:29 PM
. * * Jason234 SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan Steve   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:38 PM
. * * Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:56 PM
. * * North? SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:58 PM
. * * Re: North? tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: North? Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? James88   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? clyde w.   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? 52255225   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? 52255225   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? 52255225   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? 52255225   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status? tazmanian93   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: eye wall rebuilding project KJJBCr   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Models LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Models Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Models Clark   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Models Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Models Second Shift   Sat Sep 11 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Models scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Models HMY   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Models scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Models Storm Cooper   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Models scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Ronn Chad   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? Ronn   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? willy   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:07 AM
. * * Alabama Takingforever   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Alabama tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Alabama mbfly   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:28 AM
. * * New Projected Path Terra   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:13 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? Storm Cooper   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:22 AM
. * * NW path rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:06 AM
. * * Clark - last night quote belleami   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica scottsvb1   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:35 AM

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