Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4

Don't have a lot of time to go back through and reply to everything relevant, though it seems like everyone else did a pretty good job at it. Sounds like you all had a nice little diversion there awhile back as well with the music, haha. I just kept picturing someone playing "Rock Me Like a Hurricane" over and over again...alas, on to business.

Ivan's just a few hours from shore. The SW side of the storm appears to be less defined than before, though the eyewall is trying to hang in there. This could be significant, however, as to sparing a portion of the coast west of where Ivan makes landfall. The storm looks to be heading about 015-025 degrees, or NNE, of late with it's eye set on Mobile Bay. If current trends continue, however, the torn of Mobile may be spared the worst -- assuming that the eye and center move east of town. If the eye moves over the center of town, then all bets are off. Areas along the immediate coastline from Mobile Bay to the AL/FL border and slightly eastward to Pensacola look to take the brunt of this storm....and, unfortunately, the pictures out of that region are going to be devestating.

Regions well to the east of the center, up and down the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers & thereabouts, are also feeling effects from this storm in the way of numerous tornadoes. The cells have been racing from the south and southwest and spinning up vortices and tornadoes as they move on shore. A few more are on the way and will likely pass between Panama City and Tallahassee -- near Marianna -- in the coming hours. This threat will continue even well after Ivan makes landfall.

To those in Ivan's path -- stay safe and here's hoping for the best.

Jeanne -- NHC path looks good, actually, if only to slow it down a bit due to weaker steering currents. There is some correlation between what Ivan does and the future path of Jeanna, and I'm not 100% convinced I see it in the models yet. However, the further left track is similar if a bit north and faster of my thinking from yesterday and, like the NHC said, is only right of the GFDL and Superensemble...and in both cases, it's not by much (certainly not as much as earlier with the GFDL taking it into Florida). No one along the SE coast is out of the woods with this one yet, and it is still too far out to hazard a guess as to what it will actually do, so everyone from Key West to Cape Hatteras needs to watch this one. It's entirely possible it pulls a Floyd, getting near to shore before turning, while it's also possible this thing pulls and Erin and bends back west late in the period. It could also die out if it crosses too much land. Just need to watch it closely.

I do think the circulation will become a bit disrupted by Hispaniola, so I would lower the intensity forecast a tad. The circulation is small and the precise path, now that it is exiting Puerto Rico, will play a role in intensification. A ragged eye-type feature appears to be forming on radar imagery from San Juan, so it's not inconceiveable that this storm reaches hurricane intensity in the short-term in the Mona Passage, only to be knocked down a bit again as it passes Hispaniola. In any case, squalls will continue to affect the island of Puerto Rico through Thursday associated with a rather intense feeder band just nearing the eastern shore of the island now.

There's plenty of time to follow Jeanne and the E. Atlantic invest later, however, except for those in Puerto Rico dealing with the storm now. Hope all is well on the island there, though I'm sure we will hear reports of some wind damage in higher locales and flooding in the low-lying areas.

Here's hoping this erosion of the SW side of Ivan is a trend to shore and not a blip on the radar...it could well be significant in the long-term. This is going to be a major event well inland, and I hope people are prepared for the worst. Best wishes to all in its path.

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