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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
      Wed Sep 15 2004 11:01 PM

7AM Update
From the NHC
THE EYE OF IVAN CROSSED THE COAST AROUND 0700Z JUST WEST OF GULF
SHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY NOW IS 100
KNOTS AND BECAUSE IVAN IS ALREADY INLAND...FURTHER WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED.

Jeanne is close to hurricane strength...and has continued westward across the Mona Passage.
Midnight (EDT) Update
Ivan now about 50 miles south of Mobile Bay and indeed moving just east of due north - which would make landfall just east of the Bay (and avoid at least some of that flooding). Lets hope so anyway for the sake of those in the Mobile area.

Original Post:

Hurricane Ivan
From NHC at 16/03Z:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST
OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA.



At 16/02Z, Hurricane Ivan was about 70 mles south of Mobile, Alabama, moving north at about 10mph. Landfall should be around 05Z near the west point of Mobile Bay with sustained winds of 130mph gusting to at least 160mph. If this landfall point verifies, the backwater flooding in Mobile Bay will be extreme. Expect a storm surge of 16 feet from Mobile to Pensacola with a few spots exceeding 20 feet. From Pensacola to Destin, storm surge of at least 13 feet and from Destin to Mexico Beach the surge should be around 10 feet.

With such a slow moving and powerful storm, hurricane force winds in the area immediately to the east of landfall will prevail for 8 to 10 hours and will extend well inland. For those that are in Ivan's direct path, eye passage wil last about two hours and, except for the storm surge, this is one of the most dangerous timeframes for injury - near darkness, broken glass, weakened structures and downed power lines. Exercise extreme caution should you venture outside during passage of the eye. Ivan will continue a slow north to north northeast movement and may stall out in northern Alabama - producing a significant flood event in the Southeast over the next few days.

Tropical Storm Jeanne
From NHC at 16/03Z
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD TO LA PLATA. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM LA PLATA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA.

AT 11 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO
DOMINGO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
PUERTO RICO. ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.



Jeanne departed the northwest tip of Puerto Rico around 16/01Z and almost immediately regained excellent structure and began to develop a weak eye. She should aquire hurricane status tomorrow morning. For the last couple of hours Jeanne has been moving due west , which means an almost certain close encounter with Hispaniola and its high terrain. Jeanne is a very compact storm and I expect her to skirt the coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Jeanne could pose a threat to Florida and the Southeast - perhaps on Tuesday. The GFS 18Z run takes Jeanne on a wild ride through South Florida, then west southwestward toward the Yucatan, and then zips her back across the peninsula again - a track that would just about drive Floridians over the edge (at least those that are not already there). Strong Atlantic high pressure, surging southwestward, should certainly delay any turn to the north, so Jeanne needs to be carefully watched over the next few days.

Invest 91L
Located near 11N 26W at 16/00Z and is still not very well organized, however, slow development seems likely over the next couple of days...and another strong wave is about to exit the coast of west Africa. By next Thursday, its not out of the question that we will all be tracking 'Karl' and 'Lisa'.
ED


Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orleans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop

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Event RelatedLinks
Dauphin Island Updates
Flhurricane Mobile, AL Webcam from Joseph Johnston
Animated Version of the Mobile webcam
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Mobile Radar
Dauphin Island Weather Station Reports
Police , fire and rescue scanner, and other live video/audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Storm Surge Maps for Alabama
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Another Mobile Radar
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Mark Sudduth and Hurricanetrack.com are in Gulf Shores - Hurricanetrack.com HIRT team webcam
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 16 2004 06:54 AM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Sep 15 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Exit Ivan - Enter Jeanne RevUp   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:59 AM
. * * I am tired Kdubs   Thu Sep 16 2004 08:34 AM
. * * Re: I am tired FireAng85   Thu Sep 16 2004 08:41 AM
. * * Re: I am tired Kdubs   Thu Sep 16 2004 08:45 AM
. * * Wave Heights cjzydeco   Thu Sep 16 2004 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico Kent   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:22 PM
. * * 10 pm CDT WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico rule   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico belleami   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:25 PM
. * * If you have power and no cable...read this Kent   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:33 PM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this cjzydeco   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:36 PM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this meto   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:44 PM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this leetdan   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:45 PM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:49 PM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this belleami   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this cjzydeco   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:03 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this Kent   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this belleami   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:00 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this Kent   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this belleami   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this FlaRebel   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:12 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this belleami   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:18 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this Kent   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:31 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this Lisa NC   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:36 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:51 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this andy1tom   Thu Sep 16 2004 01:01 AM
. * * Re: FrankP Update danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 16 2004 01:13 AM
. * * Re: FrankP Update andy1tom   Thu Sep 16 2004 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Vortex Update danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 16 2004 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 16 2004 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update Clark   Thu Sep 16 2004 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update Matt033   Thu Sep 16 2004 05:12 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update (Jeanne) GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 16 2004 05:46 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update (Jeanne) LadyStorm   Thu Sep 16 2004 06:03 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Update (Jeanne) GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 16 2004 06:10 AM
. * * Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 16 2004 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 16 2004 06:27 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle Cane Watcher   Thu Sep 16 2004 06:44 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle BillD   Thu Sep 16 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 16 2004 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 16 2004 07:05 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle leetdan   Thu Sep 16 2004 07:13 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 16 2004 07:22 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle dani   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane LONNY307   Thu Sep 16 2004 07:56 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Keith234   Thu Sep 16 2004 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 16 2004 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Steve hirschb.   Thu Sep 16 2004 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane BillD   Thu Sep 16 2004 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane HMY   Thu Sep 16 2004 08:56 AM
. * * New model forecasts MrSpock   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:28 AM
. * * Re: New model forecasts Keith234   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:34 AM
. * * Re: New model forecasts *DELETED* MrSpock   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:00 AM
. * * Re: New model forecasts Keith234   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:06 AM
. * * Re: New model forecasts MrSpock   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:11 AM
. * * Frank P - reporting in - late but safe Frank P   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe RevUp   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe MrSpock   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe Frank P   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe LI Phil   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe tpratch   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe BeachBum   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe Rasvar   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe BeachBum   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe MrSpock   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:08 AM
. * * PHIL.... trinibaje   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:48 AM
. * * Re: PHIL.... LI Phil   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:04 AM
. * * Re: New thread Jack Love   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:14 AM
. * * re: I-10 Bridge staggy   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:23 AM
. * * Re: re: I-10 Bridge dani   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane andy1tom   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane kelcot   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Mongo   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane kelcot   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Bloodstar   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane RevUp   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane kelcot   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Fletch   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane RevUp   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane kelcot   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:19 AM
. * * Re: New Thread up staggy   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Ed in Va   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane MrSpock   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane sprinterblue   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Keith234   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane jlauderdal   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Keith234   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane GaryC   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Rasvar   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:46 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane tpratch   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:31 AM
. * * Navarre zmdz01   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane dani   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane HMY   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Rasvar   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Steve hirschb.   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane Fletch   Thu Sep 16 2004 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane GaryC   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane tpratch   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane GaryC   Thu Sep 16 2004 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane jlauderdal   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane FireAng85   Thu Sep 16 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane KC   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane sprinterblue   Thu Sep 16 2004 08:54 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane doug   Thu Sep 16 2004 09:21 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 16 2004 07:04 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this LI Phil   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:47 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:19 AM
. * * To all those still on line... LI Phil   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: To all those still on line... danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:39 AM
. * * Re: To all those still on line... Justin in Miami   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: To all those still on line... jlauderdal   Thu Sep 16 2004 02:06 AM
. * * Re: To all those still on line... danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne meto   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne cjzydeco   Thu Sep 16 2004 01:08 AM
. * * 11 pm CDT WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this Kent   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:11 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this Justin in Miami   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:06 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this Lisa NC   Thu Sep 16 2004 12:11 AM
. * * Re: If you have power and no cable...read this Kent   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Frank P Justin in Miami   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Bouy Data Mozart   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico Londovir   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico Kdubs   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico rule   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico Londovir   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico leetdan   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico Fletch   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico rule   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico Mozart   Wed Sep 15 2004 11:07 PM

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