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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL
Steering Currents
      Thu Sep 23 2004 11:14 AM

4:40pm Update
5PM Advisories are coming in and the forecast track has shifted a little westward. More to come soon.

3:30pm Update
The Northwestern Bahamas are now under a hurricane watch.

Original Update:

Hurricane Jeanne and Tropical Storm Ivan are the areas of most concern right now.



With Jeanne there is both good and bad news. The bad news is that the steering currents are still weak, and the forecast still makes Florida a target... and we should definitely watch it here in Florida. The slow movement, however, puts a lot of question marks on where exactly it may go.

I know many will be watching its wobbles wondering if it is a trend or not, persistance is the key doing that. Don't read too much into it until a definite movement overal a few hours has occured.


(Thanks Skeetobite)

The National Hurricane Center has moved the forecast track a bit left again and I don't see any reason to doubt it other than the general slow movement of the storm. Since it is moving so slowly things can change, so we all must watch it.

The current timeline is on Sunday if the track verifies.

The good news is that Jeanne probably won't be more than a category 2 storm at landfall, which is enough to cause problems similar to Frances. However, with all the uncertainty with the slow movement it would be prudent to heed warning and advisories that may come up. Prepare a bit and plan actions if Hurricane Watches or Warnings are set up on advice of local agencies.


Ivan has strengthened this morning to a 60MPH Tropical storm, but winds won't be Ivan Part ]['s claim to fame this time. More on Ivan later. Steering currents are weak for Ivan as well, so we may still not be done with Ivan even after it landfalls on the TX/LA coastline.

Lisa and Karl still are Fish Spinners, but the system behind Lisa will need to be watched later on.

More to come.

Event Related Links
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Ivan Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne

General Links

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Steering Currents MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 23 2004 11:14 AM
. * * Sunday & Monday SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday COgal   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday Steve hirschb.   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Who to blame? Kent   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Who to blame? danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Who to blame? AgentB   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:41 PM
. * * What AgentB said... LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:59 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... AgentB   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:13 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... MO Stormspotter   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... Thunder   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:59 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... from Gainesville   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:02 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:08 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:04 PM
. * * Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Kent   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Dawn   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Liz C   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Florida Nurse   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:35 PM
. * * Not Anxious Anymore about Storms Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent sthorne   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent Kent   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent sthorne   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:37 PM
. * * Ditch Witch Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Ditch Witch Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Ditch Witch Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Ditch Witch Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:08 PM
. * * Jeanne Justin in Miami   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne leetdan   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Justin in Miami   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne jlauderdal   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:33 PM
. * * Is Jeanne Growing? Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Is Jeanne Growing? Sadie   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Is Jeanne Growing? danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Is Jeanne Growing? AgentB   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Is Jeanne Growing? AdmittedHacker   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... Thunder   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:03 PM
. * * Re:Noon visible shots danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:07 PM
. * * Re: What AgentB said... AgentB   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday Steve hirschb.   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Sunday & Monday SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:23 PM
. * * Ivan SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Liz L.   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Steve   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Kal   Thu Sep 23 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents AgentB   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents AdmittedHacker   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents cocoa Beach   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents schmoo   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents AdmittedHacker   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Vladimirr   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents schmoo   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents jlauderdal   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents AdmittedHacker   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents lawgator   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Kdubs   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Rasvar   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents flbeachbumz   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:27 PM
. * * Weak attempt at Ivan Humor Bloodstar   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Weak attempt at Ivan Humor Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Weak attempt at Ivan Humor flbeachbumz   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Kal   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:30 PM
. * * 2 Landfalls in Florida? Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: 2 Landfalls in Florida? Kal   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:11 PM
. * * Link Ed in Va   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:12 PM
. * * Jeanne Forecast scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Forecast WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Forecast LONNY307   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:40 PM
. * * Vortex Data Recon Kdubs   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Data Recon leetdan   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Data Recon davet   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Data Recon Vladimirr   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Data Recon SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:34 PM
. * * SSD still hasLisa and 93L Bloodstar   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Vortex Data Recon Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Forecast Fletch   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Link palmetto   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents clyde w.   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents CarolinaGurl   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Ormond Suzie   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents clyde w.   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Ormond Suzie   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Frank P   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents andy1tom   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LanceW   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LanceW   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Katie   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Rasvar   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents rhendryx   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents rhendryx   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Rabbit   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Kdubs   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:41 PM
. * * New fly in the ointment??? WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:46 PM
. * * where is discussion lois   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion leetdan   Thu Sep 23 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion Heather   Thu Sep 23 2004 05:07 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 23 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Ivan Allison   Thu Sep 23 2004 06:10 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:57 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion leetdan   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion Staggy   Thu Sep 23 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion Rabbit   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:58 PM
. * * Re: where is discussion Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Nothing but wonderful news WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 23 2004 05:10 PM
. * * 5 Jeanne Ed in Va   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents FireAng   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:14 PM
. * * Floater Images lawgator   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne gailmm   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne StormKrone   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne Redbird   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:09 PM
. * * Ivan SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Rasvar   Thu Sep 23 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Fletch   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents tartan   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents ABWATCHER   Thu Sep 23 2004 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents clyde w.   Thu Sep 23 2004 02:09 PM
. * * JB LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:55 AM
. * * Re: JB Steve   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:58 AM
. * * Re: JB FlaRebel   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents cmdebbie   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents leo   Thu Sep 23 2004 09:18 PM
. * * Climatology Says.... WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Climatology Says.... Rasvar   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Climatology Out the window this year LoisCane   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Climatology Out the window this year Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:02 PM
. * * well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some lois   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Re: well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:50 PM
. * * Re: well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:16 PM
. * * ps lois   Thu Sep 23 2004 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Steering Currents LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Kdubs   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents leetdan   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Steering Currents Colleen A.   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:50 AM
. * * when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t lois   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:25 AM
. * * Ugh LI Phil   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Ugh jth   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Ugh leo   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Ugh Kdubs   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:51 AM
. * * hard time with Jeanne Frank P   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re: when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t Tally   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:36 AM
. * * Re: when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t AdmittedHacker   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:31 AM
. * * Re: when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t leetdan   Thu Sep 23 2004 11:35 AM

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