Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear
Sat Oct 09 2004 09:08 AM
Saturday 5PM Update:
From the NHC: AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
I sense a little gamesmanship at NHC (differing opinions) but at any rate, Matthew is a minimal Tropical Storm again with sustained winds of 35 knots. Matthew still moving just east of north toward the central Louisiana coast. The center is once again exposed and the weather remains to the east of the center.
Saturday 11AM Update:
Matthew is now a Tropical Depression moving to the NNE at 10mph - caught up in the low-level southerly flow ahead of a strong front - so much for the earlier analysis (see below). He is heading for the central Louisiana coast within 24 hours with most of the rain expected to the east of the landfall area. One for the global models - they nailed this one.
Matthew is barely surviving this morning and the TS rating is certainly generous. The cyclone is currently under about 30 knots of west to southwest wind shear and the convection is to the northeast of the center. The shear is expected to decrease to about 20 knots on Monday, however I doubt that Matthew can regain tropical storm strength again. The official forecast moves the storm to the northeast and north northeast around a cutoff upper level low - but the low is forecast to develop over southeast Colorado and the Texas panhandle - and that is a long way from the storm. Upper level winds along the northern Gulf coast are still expected to remain southwesterly - even westerly - so I'm still having my doubts about the anticipated eventual turn to the north. Matthew will likely remain a TD for the remainder of its existence and move northeast toward the north Florida coast.
Invest 96L south of Bermuda is also encountering strong southerly shear with convection removed well to the north of the well defined low level circulation center - looking very subtropical at the moment. Still some chance for additional development when the shear weakens in about two days.
The remainder of the basin remains quiet with nothing on the immediate horizon.
Event Related Links
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Matthew Models -- This image animated over time
Matthew Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Matthew Plots from Weather Underground
Matthew Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays
Matthew Radar Image
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
Mount st. Helens Volcanocam animation
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.