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#Ernesto expected to be Post-Trop by tonight. #99L falling apart as it enters "the graveyard" of E Caribbean. Watching #Lane in E Pac.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 313 (Nate) , Major: 331 (Maria) Florida - Any: 341 (Irma) Major: 341 (Irma)
45.6N 36.4W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Moving:
Ne at 25 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Not Much Change
      Wed Mar 09 2005 06:55 PM

The Atlantic Tropical Basin looks pretty much like it should for this time of year with a few subtle differences from last March. The ITCZ is rather zonal this year and extends across the entire basin at about 5N. Last year the ITCZ had more of a west southwesterly dip to it and nudged into the Southern Hemisphere as it approached South America.

ENSO neutral conditions are expected for the entire upcoming season with the Atlantic expected to be slightly warmer than normal from 10N to 30N by August - which would generally favor an active season.

Ridging persists through the entire Caribbean Sea - again a little different from last year when it was a bit more prone to storm activity. The Caribbean Sea is about the only location in the basin with very little shear thanks to a firm high pressure pattern.

Still a bit too early to nail down any specifics, however, the current pattern would likely forestall any development for about the next three months, i.e., any chance for an early season storm would not be very likely. Even a June storm seems uncertain at the moment - but we'll keep an eye on the basin - just in case something changes.
Cheers,
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Not Much Change Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Mar 09 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Not Much Change Cycloneye11   Mon Mar 21 2005 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Not Much Change LI Phil   Mon Mar 21 2005 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Not Much Change Cycloneye11   Tue Mar 22 2005 05:59 AM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release danielwAdministrator   Tue Mar 22 2005 08:45 PM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release Beaujolais   Wed Mar 23 2005 08:39 AM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release Lysis   Wed Mar 23 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release MikeCAdministrator   Wed Mar 23 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release MoparMitch   Fri Mar 25 2005 09:57 AM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release Clark   Sat Mar 26 2005 02:49 AM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release Storm Cooper   Sat Mar 26 2005 06:12 AM
. * * Dr Gray speaks Lysis   Sat Mar 26 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks B.C.Francis   Sat Mar 26 2005 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks Vero Beach   Thu Apr 14 2005 01:27 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks B.C.Francis   Thu Apr 14 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Circulation off NC Coast Cycloneye11   Thu Apr 14 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Circulation off NC Coast James88   Thu Apr 14 2005 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Circulation off NC Coast HanKFranK   Thu Apr 14 2005 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Circulation off NC Coast Lysis   Thu Apr 14 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Circulation off NC Coast B.C.Francis   Thu Apr 14 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks danielwAdministrator   Sun Mar 27 2005 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks B.C.Francis   Sun Mar 27 2005 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks javlin   Thu Mar 31 2005 06:27 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks B.C.Francis   Thu Mar 31 2005 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks Lysis   Thu Mar 31 2005 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks HanKFranK   Thu Mar 31 2005 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks Heather   Thu Mar 31 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks Clark   Sun Apr 03 2005 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks HanKFranK   Sun Apr 03 2005 01:54 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks B.C.Francis   Fri Apr 01 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Circulation in NW carib MapMaster   Sat Apr 02 2005 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Circulation in NW carib east coast   Thu Apr 14 2005 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Circulation in NW carib B.C.Francis   Sat Apr 02 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Circulation in NW carib Lysis   Sat Apr 02 2005 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Circulation in NW carib B.C.Francis   Sat Apr 02 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks Cycloneye11   Sun Mar 27 2005 07:03 AM
. * * Re:SST's 3.4 Nino javlin   Thu Mar 17 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Not Much Change Steve hirsch.   Thu Mar 17 2005 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Not Much Change javlin   Thu Mar 17 2005 10:08 PM
. * * Off S. America MapMaster   Thu Mar 17 2005 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Off S. America Beaujolais   Thu Mar 17 2005 01:48 PM
. * * Re: EPAC Disturbance MapMaster   Thu Mar 10 2005 12:00 PM
. * * Re: EPAC Disturbance LI Phil   Sun Mar 13 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Not Much Change Storm Cooper   Wed Mar 09 2005 08:18 PM

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