The depression is going to take a while to get going, assuming it ever really gets going at all (I'm still not 100% convinced it will hold together). The hardest part about storms like these, particularly at night, is there is no real effective way to see incremental changes that occur as the storm gets organized. By the time you're seeing any real organization on the IR or WV loops, it's not a depression anymore (most lkely). I'm just as guilty as everyone else about looking for the next frame of the sat loops and wondering to myself... what are we seeing? (Kinda like reading tea leaves, only a little more obscure). Usually it's easier to take things in 3 - 6 hours increments. Even with well developed hurricanes a small fluctuation may mean nothing but a course wobble, or it could portend a major shift in intensity or direction. It's really hard to tell.
I hope this isn't coming across as a slam at anyone, it's not. it's just that the incremental changes to look for take a few hours to show up definitively on the sat images.
As an aside, what are some good weather related links to browse while we wait for the next set of images? something that would take a while to read and digest and perhaps give us neophytes some information to chew upon. Something basic, and then some more advanced links as well....
Ok, now on to the meat of the post (Standard Disclaimer: IANAM, and what i say should be taken with a grain of salt (or a nice big ole salt lick if you prefer)). From what I'm seeing, The biggest development has been the convection coming off of Honduras and forming a potential spiral arm. At the same time, The thunderstorms collapsed on the western side of the depression. However there is more thunderstorm activity near the center now than at any point in the storms life. It looks like the outflow is getting better (hey, in my book a little outflow is better than *no* outflow), but there still is no convection on the southern side of the storm (not counting the storms off of Honduras...) I'd say the depression is a bit stronger now than 6 hours ago. However still not a tropical storm by any stretch.
Questions to ponder: Will the convection remaining on the eastern side of the storm 'pull' the llc to the right (east)? Will High pressure build in enough to push the storm to the west? The shear appears to be relaxing to the west, will it continue to relax and potentially enhance outflow?
Just my musings, don't take it too seriously. -Mark
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2018.
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