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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 441
Loc: Georgia Tech
Musings and my take on the depression
      Wed Jun 08 2005 10:08 PM

The depression is going to take a while to get going, assuming it ever really gets going at all (I'm still not 100% convinced it will hold together). The hardest part about storms like these, particularly at night, is there is no real effective way to see incremental changes that occur as the storm gets organized. By the time you're seeing any real organization on the IR or WV loops, it's not a depression anymore (most lkely). I'm just as guilty as everyone else about looking for the next frame of the sat loops and wondering to myself... what are we seeing? (Kinda like reading tea leaves, only a little more obscure). Usually it's easier to take things in 3 - 6 hours increments. Even with well developed hurricanes a small fluctuation may mean nothing but a course wobble, or it could portend a major shift in intensity or direction. It's really hard to tell.

I hope this isn't coming across as a slam at anyone, it's not. it's just that the incremental changes to look for take a few hours to show up definitively on the sat images.

As an aside, what are some good weather related links to browse while we wait for the next set of images? something that would take a while to read and digest and perhaps give us neophytes some information to chew upon. Something basic, and then some more advanced links as well....

Ok, now on to the meat of the post (Standard Disclaimer: IANAM, and what i say should be taken with a grain of salt (or a nice big ole salt lick if you prefer)). From what I'm seeing, The biggest development has been the convection coming off of Honduras and forming a potential spiral arm. At the same time, The thunderstorms collapsed on the western side of the depression. However there is more thunderstorm activity near the center now than at any point in the storms life. It looks like the outflow is getting better (hey, in my book a little outflow is better than *no* outflow), but there still is no convection on the southern side of the storm (not counting the storms off of Honduras...) I'd say the depression is a bit stronger now than 6 hours ago. However still not a tropical storm by any stretch.

Questions to ponder:
Will the convection remaining on the eastern side of the storm 'pull' the llc to the right (east)? Will High pressure build in enough to push the storm to the west? The shear appears to be relaxing to the west, will it continue to relax and potentially enhance outflow?

Just my musings, don't take it too seriously.
-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Clark Wed Jun 08 2005 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Domino   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Jeffmidtown   Wed Jun 08 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Droop31   Wed Jun 08 2005 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Rabbit   Wed Jun 08 2005 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean cyclone_head   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Droop31   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean BigTK99   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean LI Phil   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean Steve   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean *DELETED* Beaujolais   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:49 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Storm Cooper   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:51 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track rmbjoe1954   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:36 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track dem05   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:15 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Clark   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:43 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Orlando, FL   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:57 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:02 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track HanKFranK   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:40 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Droop31   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track GuppieGrouper   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:33 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track LI Phil   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:40 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:52 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Droop31   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:09 PM
. * * NWS Posts tropical storm warning mysticalmooons   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:18 PM
. * * Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning Jamiewx   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:21 PM
. * * Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:34 PM
. * * Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning mysticalmooons   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:26 PM
. * * Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning HanKFranK   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:36 PM
. * * Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning Rabbit   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:35 PM
. * * Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning hurricanejhkj   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:33 PM
. * * Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning Jamiewx   Wed Jun 08 2005 07:42 PM
. * * Is this the LLC? Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? *DELETED* hurricanhoij   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? Droop31   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? Terra   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:33 PM
. * * Musings and my take on the depression Bloodstar   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Musings and my take on the depression javlin   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Musings and my take on the depression wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Musings and my take on the depression Storm Cooper   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Musings and my take on the depression RedingtonBeachGuy   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:37 PM
. * * Chat Room is open... wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Musings and my take on the depression MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Musings and my take on the depression Rabbit   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:34 PM
. * * Re: where is this? JohnM   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? LI Phil   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? Droop31   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:02 PM
. * * where to post?? ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:55 PM
. * * Re: where to post?? Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:06 PM
. * * Hype Machine At Full Speed StormHound   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed Tazmanian93   Thu Jun 09 2005 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed mysticalmooons   Thu Jun 09 2005 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed Clark   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:09 AM
. * * reformation HanKFranK   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:23 AM
. * * Re: reformation Droop31   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed mysticalmooons   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed Clark   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:24 AM
. * * Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed mysticalmooons   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:29 AM
. * * Re: recon decoder vvvteddybearvvv   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:37 AM
. * * Re: recon decoder Rabbit   Thu Jun 09 2005 02:58 AM
. * * Looking better WeatherNLU   Thu Jun 09 2005 02:53 AM
. * * Re: Looking better Droop31   Thu Jun 09 2005 02:59 AM
. * * Re: Looking better Kevin   Thu Jun 09 2005 03:08 AM
. * * Re: 6 AM Quick Look danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 09 2005 06:11 AM
. * * Re: 6 AM Quick Look hurricane_run   Thu Jun 09 2005 06:19 AM
. * * It's now Tropical Storm Arlene Cycloneye11   Thu Jun 09 2005 07:28 AM
. * * Re: Looking better Hurric   Thu Jun 09 2005 06:10 AM
. * * Prototype Model maps SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed Tazmanian93   Thu Jun 09 2005 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed mysticalmooons   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed Tazmanian93   Thu Jun 09 2005 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed StormHound   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed LI Phil   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:47 PM
. * * Re: 11pm adv MikeG   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:49 PM
. * * Re: 11pm adv Southern4sure   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:52 PM
. * * Re: 11pm adv Southern4sure   Wed Jun 08 2005 11:01 PM
. * * Re: where to post?? LI Phil   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:04 PM
. * * Re: where to post?? Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? Storm Cooper   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? javlin   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:48 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? Frank P   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? Frank P   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? vvvteddybearvvv   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? Colleen A.   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? javlin   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:03 PM
. * * Re: 00z runs JohnM   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:48 PM
. * * Re: 00z runs wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Is this the LLC? wxman007   Wed Jun 08 2005 09:48 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Steve unplugged   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:45 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Steve-ack   Wed Jun 08 2005 06:46 PM
. * * Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track Rich B   Wed Jun 08 2005 05:55 PM

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