your el nino or active theory is an interesting one i agree that it probably favors a more active season, because in 1997 the EPAC had 3 storms by now; currently they have had only one, and none this month and there is nothing likely tor form 1996 in the Pacific also started out rather quiet in terms of not having a named storm at all until June 22, and there were 8 storms that year and in the Atlantic there were 13, and nine were hurricanes and six of those were major
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