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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean
      Sun Jul 03 2005 05:12 PM

TD3 Update - Monday, 8PM
Tropical Depression #3 in the southern Gulf of Mexico is showing signs of better organization. Although fighting southwesterly shear throughout most of Monday, the cyclone has weathered the storm (pardon the pun). At 05/00Z I estimate the position to be 23N 89W - not quite as far west or north as the official NHC position. TD3 has slowed down a bit - probably more like 8mph rather than the earlier 13mph, and the motion, at least for the moment, seems to be due north rather than north northwest. Frankly, I'd expect a northerly or even north northeasterly motion - primarily because the expected westward extension of the mid-Atlantic ridge across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico has not materialized as previously advertised by many of the forecast models. Given the shear (although rather light) and the lack of any significant trend toward rising pressure across Florida, I think that a more northerly course can be anticipated. If the current reorganization continues, TD3 should become a TS on Tuesday. The amount of intensification is still a problem. The slower speed gives the cyclone a greater amount of time over warm water, but if light shear continues there might only be a limited increase in strength. Unless the Atlantic ridge suddenly springs to life and extends westward, we could see some adjustments of the forecast track a little to the right. Don't take that for the gospel - I never seem to do too well with Gulf systems. ED

8AM 4.July.2005
Tropical Depression Three is over the Yucatan now. And the official track has shifted a little to the right, giving more concern to the western central Gulf coastline. Intensity forecasts still keep it a Tropical Storm, but this will need to be watched over the week.



The area near the windward islands this morning is also a potential area to develop later this week. The longer range models insist that we watch this system.

The chance for development graph for the Windward system:
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------*-------------]





Original Update
The Third Tropical depression of the year has formed in the far western Caribbean, it is about to move over the Yucatan peninsula and after that, enter the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The current focus is toward the Western Gulf Coast, and texas. Other areas east of Texas will want to keep tabs as well. Because of land interaction with the Yucatan, it is currently expected to be no stronger than a Tropical Storm.

We will be watching it.




This has spun up from the Southwestern Caribbean area that didn't look likely for development earlier in the week, but has now moved finally into an area more favorible for development. The Yucatan Peninsula will keep it in check.

Other activity is going up for this week so there may be more to watch this week. Like for example, in the Atlantic east of the Windward Caribbean islands.

For those in the US, have a good independence day holiday.

More to come later.

Event Related Links:

TD#3:
Animated Model Plot of Tropical Depression #3
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of TD#3

TD#4:
Animated Model Plot of Tropical Depression #4
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of TD#4



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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Sun Jul 03 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Here we go again lee haycook   Tue Jul 05 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean the watcher   Sun Jul 03 2005 10:49 PM
. * * Tropical Depression #3 Update danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 03 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Sun Jul 03 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update Old Sailor   Sun Jul 03 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update dem05   Sun Jul 03 2005 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update Old Sailor   Sun Jul 03 2005 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update dem05   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update Old Sailor   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update dem05   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update dem05   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:52 AM
. * * td 3, company HanKFranK   Mon Jul 04 2005 02:33 AM
. * * TD 3 and company? danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 04 2005 05:59 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Tazmanian93   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Big tk   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:16 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Tazmanian93   Mon Jul 04 2005 08:59 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? LadyStorm   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:30 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Big Tk   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:35 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Terra   Mon Jul 04 2005 08:32 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? javlin   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? doug   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:13 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? javlin   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Tazmanian93   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:10 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? javlin   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:56 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Rich B   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:16 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? javlin   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:11 AM
. * * td 3 structure, the playa HanKFranK   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa javlin   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa --lysis   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa HanKFranK   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:08 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Lysis   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:20 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Orlando, FL   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Lysis   Mon Jul 04 2005 02:26 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa GuppieGrouper   Mon Jul 04 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Gainesville, FL   Mon Jul 04 2005 02:49 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:01 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Lysis   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa GuppieGrouper   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:21 PM
. * * trouble HanKFranK   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:17 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa MissBecky   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:31 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Tazmanian93   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa dem05   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:50 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:52 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa doug   Mon Jul 04 2005 04:24 PM
. * * T.D 3 becoming Cindy... Keith234   Mon Jul 04 2005 04:46 PM
. * * No Intensity Change wxman007   Mon Jul 04 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change Keith234   Mon Jul 04 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change javlin   Mon Jul 04 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change Keith234   Mon Jul 04 2005 05:51 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change Prospero   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:47 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change Prospero   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:15 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change Colleen A.   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:52 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change HurricaneChaser   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Possible T.D.4 path lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Colleen A.   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Old Sailor   Mon Jul 04 2005 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path RedingtonBeachGuy   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path StormHound   Mon Jul 04 2005 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Terra   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Colleen A.   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:00 PM
. * * Main Page Updated Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Main Page Updated stormchazer   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Main Page Updated Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Main Page Updated StormHound   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Main Page Updated HCW   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:17 PM
. * * New Advisories Trickling In.... wxman007   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:35 PM
. * * Re: New Advisories Trickling In.... dem05   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:43 PM
. * * Re: New Advisories Trickling In.... danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:52 PM
. * * Re: New Advisories Trickling In.... WeatherNLU00   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:28 PM
. * * Re: New Advisories Trickling In.... danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:45 PM
. * * New Thread danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 05 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re: New Advisories Trickling In.... Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Colleen A.   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:06 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change Rich B   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:39 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Doombot!   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:38 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa stormchazer   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:49 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Lysis   Mon Jul 04 2005 02:43 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa FlaMommy   Mon Jul 04 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:19 PM
. * * same opinion HanKFranK   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: same opinion Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:51 AM
. * * Re: same opinion FlaMommy   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:07 PM
. * * Re: same opinion Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? GuppieGrouper   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Sun Jul 03 2005 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Sun Jul 03 2005 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean ShanaTX   Sun Jul 03 2005 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean dem05   Sun Jul 03 2005 09:42 PM
. * * Eastern Caribbean and Lesser Antilles danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 03 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Eastern Caribbean and Lesser Antilles javlin   Sun Jul 03 2005 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean KN4LF   Sun Jul 03 2005 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 03 2005 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean the watcher   Sun Jul 03 2005 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean Ryan   Sun Jul 03 2005 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean Old Sailor   Sun Jul 03 2005 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean Rich B   Sun Jul 03 2005 06:29 PM

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