Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2019 and ends on Nov 30th, 2019.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 164 (Michael) , Major: 164 (Michael) Florida - Any: 164 (Michael) Major: 164 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
Loc: Orlando, FL
Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain
      Sun Sep 22 2002 02:03 PM

9AM Update
Isidore down to a tropical storm, still meandering over land. I think the threat of a major on the US Coast has gone down, but not far enough to be comfortable. Isidore may never make it back over the open water. I'll wait until the 11AM advisory set to make the next real update.


11PM Update
Isidore moved south onto the Yucatan peninsula and is now stalled near Meridia. Dumping tremendous amounts of rain... after plenty of wind and probably storm surge. I believe it has gone as far south as it will. Now it will hang out and eventually move back over the water. I do think it'll restrengthen and head north still.

It has weakened, and may a bit more first.... Still watching and waiting, and still nowhere in the gulf is in the clear yet.

8PM Update

Isidore move totally inland... and is moving southwest. The storm is still strong. A bit of a wildcard was thrown into the forecast. More later...

Original Update

Isidore is jogging a bit south now. But not as west as much, which may make things interesting. It's a borderline Cat 3/4 system, and the hurricane center is keeping it a 3 for now due to being so close to land.

Now it's time to eat a bit of crow and admit it'll probably make landfall briefly (as in very... I doubt the entire eye will make it over) on the Yucatan from the north side. (Rare) Then it's still anyone's guess. Yes Mexico seems more likely now, but it isn't as likely as you may think. It still has one more good shot at getting pulled to the north later. Still isidore will be with us for a bit.



The models are still all over, but my previous guess of landfall between TX/LA and FL/AL borders stands unchanged. All of the gulf still has to remain on alert. I just can't rule anything out at this point. Mexico is a close second to the TX/LA - FL/AL call.

Confidence in any of these models or landfall calls:

code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--*-------------------]



Ie almost nil.

Keep watch folks, this tracking ride's steepest hill has yet to be climbed.

Too add yet another oddity, the mass of clouds east of Isidore, south of Cuba looks like it may becoming its own entity.

Earlier BillD gave me some animated cancun radar loops from last night you can find them here and also here.

TD#13 is moving almost too quickly for it to develop much soon, and may fall apart a bit, although I think it'll regain itself and become lili sometime tomorrow.

Cancun, Mexico Radar

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain MikeCAdministrator Sun Sep 22 2002 02:03 PM
. * * Hazardous Wind Arrival wes   Tue Sep 24 2002 11:41 AM
. * * Lili Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:41 AM
. * * Re: Lili Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:44 AM
. * * With Isidore having become a TS... SirCane   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:23 AM
. * * Re: With Isidore having become a TS... Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:42 AM
. * * west jog ??? Frank P   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:02 AM
. * * will turn north tonight at midnight Frank P   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:07 AM
. * * will re-emerge from the dead...believe it Rickinmobile   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:19 AM
. * * Re: will turn north tonight at midnight Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:16 AM
. * * I agree Mr. Jimmy Frank P   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:26 AM
. * * Hey Cat 5 Rick Frank P   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Hey Cat 5 Rick Kimster   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:45 AM
. * * DRIFTING EASTWARD Frank P   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:59 AM
. * * Another very important factor Frank P   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:09 AM
. * * Hmmmm StormHound   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:14 AM
. * * Re: DRIFTING EASTWARD BabyCat   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 06:28 AM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain J.J.   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain anon   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:33 AM
. * * consider HanKFranK   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:33 AM
. * * Re: consider Floridacane   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Floridacane   Mon Sep 23 2002 08:17 AM
. * * Izzy may be done! ShawnS   Mon Sep 23 2002 08:09 AM
. * * Re: Izzy may be done! Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 08:17 AM
. * * Re: Izzy may be done! Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 08:15 AM
. * * Caught in between the two scenarios Frank P   Mon Sep 23 2002 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Caught in between the two scenarios StormHound   Mon Sep 23 2002 08:29 AM
. * * Re: Caught in between the two scenarios Floridacane   Mon Sep 23 2002 08:38 AM
. * * Frank P... Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 08:36 AM
. * * Then again... Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 08:41 AM
. * * Confident...... Frank P   Mon Sep 23 2002 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 06:21 AM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:50 PM
. * * If I remember correctly........ SirCane   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:29 PM
. * * TD13 Domino   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:40 PM
. * * Re: TD13 Joe   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:50 PM
. * * South ShawnS   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:56 PM
. * * Re: TD13 Joe   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:54 PM
. * * Re: TD13 Joe   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:59 PM
. * * Hmmmmm.......Oh Frank.......... Southern4sure   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Hmmmmm.......Oh Frank.......... Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:35 PM
. * * Don't buy the loop scenario ... yet Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:42 PM
. * * Shawn... moving soooooooo slow Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:52 PM
. * * Hey Frank.. Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:13 PM
. * * HT... per your request Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Hello, Frank NoviceMS   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:41 PM
. * * unforseen (except maybe by the gfdl) HanKFranK   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:57 PM
. * * Evening NoviceMS Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Evening NoviceMS Justin in Miami   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Evening NoviceMS Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:20 PM
. * * Re: HT... per your request Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:36 PM
. * * Re: HT... per your request BillD   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:58 PM
. * * GOOD GRIEF Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:13 PM
. * * Re: GOOD GRIEF joepub1   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:28 PM
. * * Re: GOOD GRIEF LoisCane   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:49 PM
. * * Re: GOOD GRIEF Floridacane   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:26 PM
. * * Re: GOOD GRIEF Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:35 PM
. * * Speaking of getting serious... Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Speaking of getting serious... Floridacane   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:45 PM
. * * Looks like he's on the move again. Houstontracker   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Looks like he's on the move again. BillD   Mon Sep 23 2002 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Looks like he's on the move again. Floridacane   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Looks like he's on the move again. Domino   Mon Sep 23 2002 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Looks like he's on the move again. Floridacane   Mon Sep 23 2002 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Looks like he's on the move again. Domino   Mon Sep 23 2002 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Looks like he's on the move again. Floridacane   Mon Sep 23 2002 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Looks like he's on the move again. Domino   Mon Sep 23 2002 01:59 AM
. * * nah.. HanKFranK   Mon Sep 23 2002 02:33 AM
. * * Re: nah.. Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 02:50 AM
. * * Middle of the night Domino   Mon Sep 23 2002 04:35 AM
. * * 5 a.m. WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 23 2002 05:16 AM
. * * Re: Looks like he's on the move again. Floridacane   Mon Sep 23 2002 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Looks like he's on the move again. Domino   Mon Sep 23 2002 01:51 AM
. * * excellent link, Houstontracker RickinMobile   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:53 PM
. * * westward jog? Rickinmobile   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:41 PM
. * * Re: GOOD GRIEF Floridacane   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:40 PM
. * * Re: GOOD GRIEF Justin in Miami   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:30 PM
. * * Re: GOOD GRIEF izzy brown LoisCane   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:22 PM
. * * Re: GOOD GRIEF Justin in Miami   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:17 PM
. * * Re: GOOD GRIEF Rick In Mobile   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:21 PM
. * * Re: HT... per your request joepub1   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Hmmmmm.......Oh Frank.......... ShawnS   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:40 PM
. * * will emerge over the Yucatan in about 12-14 hours RickinMobile   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:51 PM
. * * MOVEMENT WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:32 PM
. * * IR fix for Lat and Long Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:22 PM
. * * Re: IR fix for Lat and Long BillD   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:48 PM
. * * MOVEMENT WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:57 PM
. * * Re: MOVEMENT Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:09 PM
. * * jog se LoisCane   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:30 PM
. * * Re: MOVEMENT ShawnS   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:14 PM
. * * Well, looks like the fun continues.... wxman007   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:53 PM
. * * go west..young man... Rickinmobile   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:38 PM
. * * Rick ShawnS   Sun Sep 22 2002 10:55 PM
. * * Shawn Rick in Mobile   Sun Sep 22 2002 11:11 PM
. * * New Models ShawnS   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:53 PM
. * * Frank P ShawnS   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:31 PM
. * * Re: TD13 canman32   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:53 PM
. * * Re: If I remember correctly........ canman32   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain meto   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:49 PM
. * * Last post for tonight Kevin   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:57 PM
. * * Hey Kevin........ SirCane   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Hey Kevin........ Kevin   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Hey Kevin........ canman32   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Hey Kevin........ Kevin   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:01 PM
. * * I don't know! ShawnS   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:18 PM
. * * Re: I don't know! joepub1   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:39 PM
. * * Re: I don't know! Kevin   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:33 PM
. * * Here's the Deal ShawnS   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Here's the Deal joepub1   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Here's the Deal Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Here's the Deal FlaRebel   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:19 PM
. * * Go figure... Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Go figure... recmod   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Go figure... brew   Sun Sep 22 2002 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Go figure... joepub1   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:41 PM
. * * Hey Joe Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Here's the Deal canman32   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:09 PM
. * * MERIDA WEATHER WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Here's the Deal joepub1   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:50 PM
. * * MOVEMENT WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 22 2002 08:00 PM
. * * Re: I don't know! Domino   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Hey Kevin........ canman32   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:14 PM
. * * Hey Rick in Mobile troy2   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:10 PM
. * * Inland ShawnS   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Inland troy2   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:37 PM
. * * situation/long set of forecast options HanKFranK   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:17 PM
. * * Re: situation/long set of forecast options mr jimmy   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:30 PM
. * * Re: situation/long set of forecast options cappycat   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:57 PM
. * * Re: situation/long set of forecast options turkeyman   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:36 PM
. * * a short post for once HanKFranK   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:42 PM
. * * Re: 7 pm advisory bsnyder   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Inland wobbles Kevin   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Inland joepub1   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:33 PM
. * * mbfly... Steve   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:14 PM
. * * barometric pressure question? cappycat   Sun Sep 22 2002 05:54 PM
. * * Re: barometric pressure question? Justin in Miami   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:21 PM
. * * Re: barometric pressure question? cappycat   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Kylein Pensacola   Sun Sep 22 2002 03:33 PM
. * * Model Agree? Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 03:45 PM
. * * eh? HanKFranK   Sun Sep 22 2002 04:00 PM
. * * Re: eh? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 22 2002 04:38 PM
. * * LINK WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 22 2002 04:42 PM
. * * Re: LINK Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 22 2002 05:44 PM
. * * Sat Picture MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 22 2002 05:50 PM
. * * Re: eh? Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 04:04 PM
. * * Re: eh? Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 04:42 PM
. * * Re: eh? canman32   Sun Sep 22 2002 04:52 PM
. * * WATCH OUT U.S. WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 22 2002 04:57 PM
. * * Re: WATCH OUT U.S. Kevin   Sun Sep 22 2002 05:11 PM
. * * Effects here in Pearland? ShawnS   Sun Sep 22 2002 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Effects here in Pearland? joepub1   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Effects here in Pearland? joepub1   Sun Sep 22 2002 05:38 PM
. * * Florida Panhandle Marcie   Sun Sep 22 2002 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Florida Panhandle Justin in Miami   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:29 PM
. * * loop to New Orleans, Mobile, Pensacola RickinMobile   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:40 PM
. * * Re: loop to New Orleans, Mobile, Pensacola troy2   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical assults Kevin   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Florida Panhandle Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Florida Panhandle troy2   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Florida Panhandle Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:13 PM
. * * I'll catch up on the reading later... Steve   Sun Sep 22 2002 05:33 PM
. * * Re: I'll catch up on the reading later... mbfly   Sun Sep 22 2002 05:54 PM
. * * GOTTA HIT NEW ORLEANS Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 05:53 PM
. * * Re: GOTTA HIT NEW ORLEANS Justin in Miami   Sun Sep 22 2002 06:44 PM
. * * Re: GOTTA HIT NEW ORLEANS Frank P   Sun Sep 22 2002 07:55 PM
. * * LANDFALL WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 22 2002 04:35 PM
. * * Re: LANDFALL joepub1   Sun Sep 22 2002 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain Anonymous   Sun Sep 22 2002 03:44 PM
. * * Mid-day tropics. Kevin   Sun Sep 22 2002 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Mid-day tropics. squirralee   Sun Sep 22 2002 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Mid-day tropics. squirralee   Sun Sep 22 2002 03:10 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *
Thread views: 47049

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center