9AM Update Isidore down to a tropical storm, still meandering over land. I think the threat of a major on the US Coast has gone down, but not far enough to be comfortable. Isidore may never make it back over the open water. I'll wait until the 11AM advisory set to make the next real update.
11PM Update Isidore moved south onto the Yucatan peninsula and is now stalled near Meridia. Dumping tremendous amounts of rain... after plenty of wind and probably storm surge. I believe it has gone as far south as it will. Now it will hang out and eventually move back over the water. I do think it'll restrengthen and head north still.
It has weakened, and may a bit more first.... Still watching and waiting, and still nowhere in the gulf is in the clear yet.
Isidore move totally inland... and is moving southwest. The storm is still strong. A bit of a wildcard was thrown into the forecast. More later...
Isidore is jogging a bit south now. But not as west as much, which may make things interesting. It's a borderline Cat 3/4 system, and the hurricane center is keeping it a 3 for now due to being so close to land.
Now it's time to eat a bit of crow and admit it'll probably make landfall briefly (as in very... I doubt the entire eye will make it over) on the Yucatan from the north side. (Rare) Then it's still anyone's guess. Yes Mexico seems more likely now, but it isn't as likely as you may think. It still has one more good shot at getting pulled to the north later. Still isidore will be with us for a bit.
The models are still all over, but my previous guess of landfall between TX/LA and FL/AL borders stands unchanged. All of the gulf still has to remain on alert. I just can't rule anything out at this point. Mexico is a close second to the TX/LA - FL/AL call.
Confidence in any of these models or landfall calls:
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