11:00AM Katrina is now a 60mph tropical storm, with the potential to intensify into a minimal hurricane over the next few hours before it makes landfall in southern Florida near midnight tonight. A recent reconnaisance report suggests that the pressure with the storm is lower -- now 990mb -- with flight level winds of 60kt on the S side and 55kt on the N side of the storm. They'll be providing reports throughout the day, so stay tuned for the latest.
6:30AM There is some good news this morning regarding Katrina's intensity, as far as getting beyond much more than a category one hurricane. However, this still leaves south Florida with an approaching storm.
Katrina has not shaken the dry air intrusion like it appeared it might last night, keeping the storm a Tropical Storm, and reducing the chance for rapid strengthening a great deal. It looks like the forecast will hold as a minimal Category 1 hurricane at this time. It still has the chance to develop during the day. Mainly due to radar presentation
The track looks good, although the National Hurricane Center admits the error for direct landfall could be anywhere from slightly north of the current track all the way to the Keys. Some features may want to bend the system back south a bit, while others would trend it more north. This is important since the storm is forecast to slow forward movement during the day. The entire warning area still needs to prepare for the system.
More to come during the day...
Report conditions in your area/read other folks reports at this link(Registration not required):p/url] Original Update Katrina has strengthened some tonight, and is moving more west northwest tonight. It is expected to slow down and strengthen some more.
Hurricane Warnings are now up from Vero Beach to Florida City, including Lake Okeechobee.
Folks in the warning areas will need to prepare for the storm as soon as possible. I'd prepare for a Category 2 storm, even if it doesn't make it that high. The uncertainty with intensity is high enough to cause concern. Especially in Broward and Palm Beach counties. If you are in the warning areas, listen to local media and governmental agencies.
The current forecast track seems good, it did make the westerly turn earlier as expected, after elongating a bit and finding a real center. It's currently moving westward toward Florida, and the forward speed is expected to slow.
If the current National Hurricane Center forecast verfies it will place a 90MPH hurricane near Broward County Friday morning.
Convection around the center is high, and conditions are becoming more favorible for strengthening.
Other factors for strengthening include the relatively small core of the storm, and the slow movement across south Florida will put up a potential for floods as well.
Event Related Links General Links
Report Katrina conditions in your area/read other folks reports at this link (Registration not required):p/url]
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