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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      Mon Sep 23 2002 08:35 PM

Tropical Storm Isidore spent most of the day completing a cyclonic wobble over the Yucatan but in the past couple of hours he hints at a northeast movement. The overall cloud structure has changed from an east-west orientation to a north-south orientation - which tells me that an eventual movement to the north may slowly get underway. The convective core is long gone and should the cyclone finally get back into the Gulf - and I think that it will - it will take awhile for that core to rebuild. Remember, over water the storm develops the CDO as it grows in intensity. Low pressure doesn't mean instant success - it just means that the system has a better chance of success in the rebuilding process. Isidore may only grow to a shadow of his former self, especially if he starts to speed up, but Cat II certainly seems reasonable. Fast moving tropical cyclones seldom intensify much.

Where will Isidore go? Who knows! Probably further east than originally projected - the atmosphere has changed a bit since Izzy first made landfall. Speaking of projections, the landfall certainly wasn't (except for a crazy looking GFDL run which we all ignored). My point is that the models are not the gospel - they certainly missed the southward movement - use them cautiously and listen closely to your local met office or your local broadcast met that you trust (unsolicited plug for Greg and Jason ) Why hasn't Isidore moved? Easy - zero steering currents. The total circulation envelope of the cyclone is so huge that the only current currents (ah, what a double!) are the cyclones' circulation itself. If it's own upper air pattern alters enough it will likely start an eventual movement to the north - if not, well tropical cyclones do meet their demise over land.

Tropical Storm Lili - finally! Actually I've had this system at tropical storm strength since about 2pm yesterday afternoon. NHC may have been a little too cautious with this system. Satellite imagery said 'TS', and since a TD was already underway, you can't always wait on an aircraft report - but enough of that. From a meteorological perspective Lili looks like she has gotten her act together. What scares me is that my 72 hour position and the NHC 72hr position match - exactly! St Lucia is next in her sights (one of my favorite Caribbean islands - worth going to if you get a chance).

Where will Lili go? So far, this one is a lot easier than Isidore. Clips Haiti - crosses Cuba - pay attention in south Florida. If it moves further west, then Jamaica could get hit again - they sure don't need that - crosses western Cuba - pay attention in southwest Florida. Expect Lili to reach hurricane strength within 24 hours, and nothing much to weaken it until it hits Cuba. Right now it looks like Puerto Rico is okay, but that does not mean to ignore it. This is a bit of a stretch (timewise), but probably a Sunday event for Florida - more track details later on in the Storm Forum. Keep in mind that Kyle is part of the steering problem. As he slowly intensifies and drifts southwestward, his circulation is helping to reinforce the ridge to his southwest - not much, but a little.



If you live along the Gulf coast or the Southeast coast, keep your eyes on this dynamic duo.

Cancun, Mexico Radar

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [ Ed Dunham ]

Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 23 2002 11:04 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Sep 23 2002 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Rick   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Frank P   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Rick   Tue Sep 24 2002 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Frank P   Tue Sep 24 2002 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts meto   Tue Sep 24 2002 06:11 PM
. * * I agree....... SirCane   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:04 PM
. * * It's moving NE... wxman007   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:22 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:39 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... joepub1   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:31 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... Kevin   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:29 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... Stmwtcher   Tue Sep 24 2002 06:11 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... mbfly   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:28 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:27 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... wxman007   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:30 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... MelbDave   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:37 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... wxman007   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:39 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... joepub1   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:47 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... wxman007   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:49 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 06:03 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 06:20 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 06:25 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... wxman007   Tue Sep 24 2002 06:33 PM
. * * izzyinmobile RickinMobile   Tue Sep 24 2002 06:50 PM
. * * Re: izzyinmobile Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:00 PM
. * * Re: izzyinmobile mbfly   Tue Sep 24 2002 06:56 PM
. * * Re: izzyinmobile Rick   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:03 PM
. * * question for Jason capesanblasfl   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:22 PM
. * * Re: question for Jason wxman007   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:31 PM
. * * Re: question for Jason caneman   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:44 PM
. * * Re: question for Jason Ricreig   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:25 PM
. * * where are we...? HanKFranK   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:44 PM
. * * Re: where are we...? alan   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:14 PM
. * * Re: question for Jason ShawnS   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:34 PM
. * * Re: question for Jason Rick   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:50 PM
. * * The Cape and Florida... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:37 PM
. * * Re: The Cape and Florida... joepub1   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:53 PM
. * * Yo Jo... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:07 PM
. * * Talk About Large WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:42 PM
. * * Re: The GFDL models Rick   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:02 PM
. * * Re: The GFDL models joepub1   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:13 PM
. * * Evening all Frank P   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:24 PM
. * * Opal Rickinmobile   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:03 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... Lorraine   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:57 PM
. * * Re: It's moving NE... wxman007   Tue Sep 24 2002 06:02 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts meto   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 03:26 PM
. * * About the "Appears to be heading NE"... Steve   Tue Sep 24 2002 03:50 PM
. * * Re: About the "Appears to be heading NE"... joepub1   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts usufruct   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:05 PM
. * * That's it for me.......... SirCane   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:08 AM
. * * Re: That's it for me.......... ShawnS   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:14 AM
. * * Shawn Frank P   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:25 AM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 03:16 AM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Domino   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:05 AM
. * * 4am update out... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:47 AM
. * * 2 Systems WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:22 AM
. * * Question Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 06:22 AM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Floridacane   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts DopplerGal   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts HanKFranK   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Frank P   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts mp3reed   Mon Sep 23 2002 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts wxman007   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:10 PM
. * * Latest model runs... OH JOY Frank P   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY joepub1   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY Justin in Miami   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:36 PM
. * * Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY Londovir   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:48 PM
. * * Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY troy2   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY Frank P   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY troy2   Mon Sep 23 2002 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY troy2   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:09 PM
. * * back in the bath before sunrise rickinmobile   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:19 PM
. * * Re: back in the bath before sunrise Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:22 PM
. * * already moving, unless I am seeing things... rick in mobile   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:32 PM
. * * Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things... Floridacane   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:39 PM
. * * Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things... Floridacane   Mon Sep 23 2002 10:41 PM
. * * Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things... Houstontracker   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:14 PM
. * * Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things... Kimmie at home   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:28 PM
. * * My Two Cents Worth! ShawnS   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:39 PM
. * * Re: My Two Cents Worth! troy2   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:44 PM
. * * My question troy2   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:48 PM
. * * hmm... Anonymous (HF)   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:07 AM
. * * Re: My question Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:51 PM
. * * Re: My question Floridacane   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:20 AM
. * * Re: bsnyder   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:27 AM
. * * Re: My Two Cents Worth! Anonymous   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:48 PM
. * * Re: My Two Cents Worth! wxman007   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:51 PM
. * * Re: My Two Cents Worth! Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:06 AM
. * * Re: My Two Cents Worth! wxman007   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:08 AM
. * * Re: My Two Cents Worth! Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:16 AM
. * * Re: My Two Cents Worth! scottsvb   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:31 AM
. * * Re: My Two Cents Worth! Londovir   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:37 AM
. * * Re: My Two Cents Worth! Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:43 AM
. * * The 00z AVN... wxman007   Tue Sep 24 2002 01:07 AM
. * * Re: The 00z AVN... wxman007   Tue Sep 24 2002 01:15 AM
. * * Jason Frank P   Tue Sep 24 2002 01:34 AM
. * * NHC confirmed the northerly motion Frank P   Tue Sep 24 2002 01:50 AM
. * * I'll stay with what I said yesterday. Rasvar   Tue Sep 24 2002 06:50 AM
. * * My thoughts this morning... Frank P   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:16 AM
. * * Re: My thoughts this morning... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:33 AM
. * * Re: My thoughts this morning... Frank P   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:28 AM
. * * Opal, and others Rick in Mobile   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:36 AM
. * * Re: Opal, and others Rasvar   Tue Sep 24 2002 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Opal, and others Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 09:11 AM
. * * Lili info Mike   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Lili info joepub1   Tue Sep 24 2002 09:22 AM
. * * houma Anonymous (HF)   Tue Sep 24 2002 09:32 AM
. * * For the record... Steve   Tue Sep 24 2002 10:53 AM
. * * Re: For the record... Frank P   Tue Sep 24 2002 11:11 AM
. * * Warnings and Watches mbfly   Tue Sep 24 2002 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Warnings and Watches joepub1   Tue Sep 24 2002 02:57 PM
. * * Isidore and Lili Kevin   Tue Sep 24 2002 03:43 PM
. * * Kevin - I disagree on Lili... Steve   Tue Sep 24 2002 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili... Kevin   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili... doug   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:47 PM
. * * One girl against two guys? joepub1   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:04 PM
. * * Re: One girl against two guys? Kevin   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:26 PM
. * * Re: One girl against two guys? Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:54 PM
. * * Agree on slight NNE drift for Isidore last few frames... Steve   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Agree on slight NNE drift for Isidore last few frames... clyde w.   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Agree on slight NNE drift for Isidore last few frames... clyde w.   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili... Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili... Joe   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Izzy and Lizzy...err Lili Rasvar   Tue Sep 24 2002 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Warnings and Watches Rasvar   Tue Sep 24 2002 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Warnings and Watches joepub1   Tue Sep 24 2002 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Warnings and Watches jlauderdal   Tue Sep 24 2002 03:42 PM
. * * Dummies at the NWS reset the storm totals! Steve   Tue Sep 24 2002 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Dummies at the NWS reset the storm totals! Rasvar   Tue Sep 24 2002 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Warnings and Watches andy1tom   Tue Sep 24 2002 02:36 PM
. * * Re: For the record... recmod   Tue Sep 24 2002 11:04 AM
. * * Re: For the record... Frank P   Tue Sep 24 2002 11:21 AM
. * * IKL HanKFranK   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:12 PM
. * * Lili is There Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Lili is There Anonymous   Tue Sep 24 2002 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Lili is There joepub1   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Lili is There joepub1   Tue Sep 24 2002 02:03 PM
. * * Just lookin.... wxman007   Tue Sep 24 2002 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Just lookin.... Frank P   Tue Sep 24 2002 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Just lookin.... VolusiaMike   Tue Sep 24 2002 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Just lookin.... Rasvar   Tue Sep 24 2002 10:51 AM
. * * Lookin at Lili recmod   Tue Sep 24 2002 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Just lookin.... joepub1   Tue Sep 24 2002 11:09 AM
. * * Kyle Robert   Tue Sep 24 2002 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Lili info tom5r   Tue Sep 24 2002 08:32 AM
. * * one more thing Frank P   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:35 AM
. * * looks like izzy is getting frizzy RickiinMobile   Tue Sep 24 2002 07:13 AM
. * * Lili Lifting Up? Londovir   Tue Sep 24 2002 12:03 AM
. * * Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things... Floridacane   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:28 PM
. * * Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things... troy2   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:27 PM
. * * Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things... Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 23 2002 11:42 PM

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