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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser

Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida

SHIPS model
Sun Aug 28 2005 09:49 AM

Quote:

What do you think the odds are that the track might shift East?? 48hrs seems a little stretched for Cat V winds... I would think that it would go under Cat V strength within an hour or two (of course depending on how strong it is when it comes ashore).

I don't think the official forecast will shift east of the AL/MS line, but it could shift a bit east to Gulfport/Biloxi - and even a 10 mile shift in the landfall would be significant in terms of the complete destruction - The cone is what people need to focus on, definately - widespread significant damage is certain, but whereeever the eye crosses and within 10 miles to the east could simply cease to exist. If that shifts even 10-20 miles east or west, it's significant to those people in that 10-20 miles. It's also unpredictable which is why EVERYONE needs to GET OUT if you're in the cone near the coast.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)

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