Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast

10:30PM Update
A tropical storm watch is now up from Titusville north to Flagler beach.

4PM Update
Latest recon fix shows TD 16 to be about the same intensity as the 11am initial advisory -- pressure of 1008mb, flight-level (here, near-surface) winds of 27kt. They'll be sampling the storm for some time to come still, so it remains to be seen as to whether or not they find anything stronger.

Some models have it dissapating (which would be nice), but I'm not so sure about that at the moment.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from Jupiter to Titusville as the 16th Depression of the Season forms off the Coast of Florida. Points further north will likely come later this evening. TD#16 is not moving much, and may be over water for the next few days as it crawls slightly to the north and west.

Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com

It is expected to make landfall in East Central or North Florida as a tropical storm. It is moving very slowly and may take a long time to move westward and northwestward. The Tropical Storm Warnings may be extended further north later today.

The forecast moves the system extremely slowly toward the northwest and north northwest. There is some uncertainty, so it may make landfall anywhere in the rather large cone. Intensity wise, it is likely to hold itself as a Tropical Storm. However, depending on how slow the motion goes the chance of it making minimal hurricane status is there. The National Hurricane Center, however, is holding with Tropical Storm Warnings. We may have windy conditions along the coast for an extended amount of time with the current forecast track, with them gradually increasing.

Hopefully people won't be caught off guard if it stays offshore a bit longer and becomes a minimal hurricane, which is possible, but not likely at the moment. Folks along the east coast of Florida will want to pay attention. The forecast isn't certain and if it strengthens more rapidly than expected we could have Hurricane Watches or Warnings up by tomorrow.

Recon aircraft are going out there this afternoon, and we'll hopefully know more when they do.