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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go
      Sun Nov 13 2005 11:09 PM

The area of disturbed weather in the southeastern Caribbean sea has developed into a tropical cyclone, based on radar and surface reports from the Windward Islands.

Caribbean Weather Reports

The system is forecast to move generally westward, and the NHC is suggesting that it expects a hurricane later in the week. For the near term it is under considerable shear, though an anticyclone is forecast to develop aloft in the path of the system by midweek. There is always the chance that it will crash ahead into shear and rid us of tropical worries; that appears an unlikely scenario at this point. Next name on the list is Gamma.

Models are not terribly convergent on it's future, though the ones that have been correctly forecasting this system's development show a significant hurricane reaching the western Caribbean later in the week. Some of the dynamic models favor a track further south, near the coast of South America.

Storm 27 Model Plots

In the long range, the synoptic pattern would tend to favor one of three things--a speeding track into Central America, a sharp recurvature across Cuba, or a potential stall/meander scenario later in the week.
There are a couple of other areas of interest--they are real longshots. Modeling is showing the potential for low pressure further east of 27, though none show more than broad, weak lows. There is still low pressure near Panama in some model runs as well. This area is persisting even though convection became scarce there today. There is also a deep layer low forecast to dive southwest over the central Atlantic during the coming days. GFS shows way too much shear over it for any development, but it may have the profile distorted. It will penetrate into the tropics, if nothing else.
There don't appear to be any U.S. threats, but any system in the Caribbean is a worry for plenty of people. This is not a fish-storm scenario as some tend to call it, unless it acts really weird (check Marco in 1996 for a proxy Caribbean fish-storm).

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1996/MARCO/track.gif

The forecast track may end up resembling Joan of 1988, for those of you into climo-history.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1988/JOAN/track.gif

Or for an alternate scenario, try:

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1932/10/track.gif

It's late season, and only the real hurricane buffs are still around--so feel free to post away.
-HF

TD #27 (from Skeetobite)

Click for full size:

Animated Model Graphic Skeetobite
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TD#27 - Static Image
cimss TD#27 Page


Edited by MikeC (Mon Nov 14 2005 07:19 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go HanKFranK Sun Nov 13 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Possible TD 28? Rich B   Thu Nov 17 2005 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Possible TD 28? ltpat228   Thu Nov 17 2005 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Possible TD 28? damejune2   Thu Nov 17 2005 11:29 AM
. * * winds are the issue not the heat LoisCane   Thu Nov 17 2005 11:35 AM
. * * Re: winds are the issue not the heat damejune2   Thu Nov 17 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: winds are the issue not the heat typhoon_tip   Thu Nov 17 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: winds are the issue not the heat damejune2   Thu Nov 17 2005 01:48 PM
. * * Re: winds are the issue not the heat typhoon_tip   Thu Nov 17 2005 02:33 PM
. * * Re: winds are the issue not the heat dave foster   Thu Nov 17 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Recon & Wilma Brad in Miami   Thu Nov 17 2005 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Recon & Wilma Brad in Miami   Thu Nov 17 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Recon & Wilma doug   Thu Nov 17 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Recon & Wilma Margie   Thu Nov 17 2005 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Recon & Wilma doug   Thu Nov 17 2005 04:42 PM
. * * nothing yet, but it ain't over HanKFranK   Fri Nov 18 2005 12:17 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Hootowl   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:05 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over HURRICANELONNY   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:13 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Lysis   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Fletch   Fri Nov 18 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Brad in Miami   Fri Nov 18 2005 01:01 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 02:08 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 02:29 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over doug   Fri Nov 18 2005 02:47 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:06 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Storm Hunter   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:15 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over DJINFLA   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over scottsvb   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over DJINFLA   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:22 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Weather Report WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Weather Report Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:42 PM
. * * Re: GAMMA IS BORN Tropics Guy   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Weather Report Storm Hunter   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Weather Report Clark   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:16 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 12:18 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Lysis   Fri Nov 18 2005 12:30 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Ron Basso   Fri Nov 18 2005 12:28 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 12:47 PM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 10:10 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:06 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over lawgator   Fri Nov 18 2005 10:52 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over LoisCane   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:16 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over damejune2   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:33 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over jusforsean   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over HanKFranK   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over saluki   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Special Tropical Disturbance Statement Cycloneye11   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:26 AM
. * * NHC STDS 11/18 090 Mike   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:25 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go SMOKE   Tue Nov 15 2005 06:29 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Tropics Guy   Tue Nov 15 2005 11:29 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Steve H1   Tue Nov 15 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Rich B   Tue Nov 15 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Margie   Tue Nov 15 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Rabbit   Tue Nov 15 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go damejune2   Tue Nov 15 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 15 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Lysis   Tue Nov 15 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 15 2005 05:31 PM
. * * things going crazy HanKFranK   Tue Nov 15 2005 06:56 PM
. * * Re: things going crazy Toto   Tue Nov 15 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: things going crazy HanKFranK   Wed Nov 16 2005 01:47 AM
. * * TD27 demise?? danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 16 2005 05:39 AM
. * * Re: TD27 demise?? Thunderbird12   Wed Nov 16 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: TD27 demise?? Steve H1   Wed Nov 16 2005 10:14 AM
. * * recon timetable HanKFranK   Wed Nov 16 2005 10:30 AM
. * * Re: recon timetable Steve H1   Wed Nov 16 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: recon timetable ltpat228   Wed Nov 16 2005 05:56 PM
. * * alrighty then HanKFranK   Thu Nov 17 2005 12:43 AM
. * * Re: alrighty then danielwAdministrator   Thu Nov 17 2005 03:02 AM
. * * Re: alrighty then UKCloudgazer   Thu Nov 17 2005 05:40 AM
. * * Re: alrighty then Hugh   Thu Nov 17 2005 06:54 AM
. * * Could get wet ina few days... Beach   Thu Nov 17 2005 08:02 AM
. * * Re: things going crazy ltpat228   Tue Nov 15 2005 08:08 PM
. * * Re: things going crazy Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 15 2005 08:25 PM
. * * Re: things going crazy HanKFranK   Tue Nov 15 2005 09:30 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go saluki   Sun Nov 13 2005 11:53 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 14 2005 12:31 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 14 2005 11:34 AM
. * * UK Met accuracy LoisCane   Mon Nov 14 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 14 2005 12:29 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go scottsvb   Mon Nov 14 2005 12:36 PM
. * * uk met pulls gamma north? LoisCane   Mon Nov 14 2005 02:00 PM
. * * Re: uk met pulls gamma north? Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 14 2005 02:03 PM
. * * Re: uk met pulls gamma north? Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 14 2005 05:37 PM
. * * Re: uk met pulls gamma north? HomesteadGirl   Mon Nov 14 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: uk met pulls gamma north? CoalCracker   Mon Nov 14 2005 07:26 PM
. * * Re: uk met pulls gamma north? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 14 2005 08:25 PM
. * * Re: uk met pulls gamma north? Random Chaos   Mon Nov 14 2005 10:35 PM
. * * take HanKFranK   Mon Nov 14 2005 11:49 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 14 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go CoalCracker   Mon Nov 14 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Clark   Mon Nov 14 2005 01:23 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go UKCloudgazer   Mon Nov 14 2005 03:56 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go lawgator   Mon Nov 14 2005 10:14 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go lawgator   Mon Nov 14 2005 11:03 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Margie   Mon Nov 14 2005 11:19 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Random Chaos   Mon Nov 14 2005 07:36 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go damejune2   Mon Nov 14 2005 09:09 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 14 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 14 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go damejune2   Mon Nov 14 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 14 2005 09:38 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go Ron Basso   Mon Nov 14 2005 10:10 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go mojorox   Mon Nov 14 2005 02:30 AM
. * * Here we go...again danielwAdministrator   Mon Nov 14 2005 12:05 AM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go CoalCracker   Sun Nov 13 2005 11:47 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go LoisCane   Sun Nov 13 2005 11:39 PM
. * * Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go lunkerhunter   Sun Nov 13 2005 11:25 PM

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