10:30 PM Update Tropcial Depression #1 is still a depression, and the forecast takes it just south of the big bend of Florida. Also the current intensity forecast has it arriving as a weak to moderate tropical storm. Mainly because a high amount of southwesterly shear exists.
A tropical storm watch for western central Florida and north toward the big bend may occur early as tomorrow morning.
Original Update Tropical Depression One has formed. Advisories have been issued.
This system is still not poised to strengthen too much quickly, at least now. Most of the convection is on the eastern side of the storm, which means Florida will likely see more rain from it. Models are still not all that reliable as to future location, but Cuba and the Southeaster Gulf will want to watch it.
The current official forecast takes the system near Cedar Key (north of Tampa and south of the big bend). However, the hurricane center states that the track is highly uncertain, and after crossing Florida it would likely transform into an extratropical system and head northeast near the US coastline. It is projected to remain a Tropical Storm at this time, roughly 60 mph winds as it nears the coast. However if shear keeps it in check, it could be weaker. This and the track could change so keep an eye out on it.
Tropical Storm warnings are recommended, but not yet issued by the Cuban government for Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth.
It's fairly likely to become Alberto sometime today as well.
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