A few things to consider and remember: - Climatologically this system's genesis fits quite well if you are going to get a June spin up. - Believe it or not, it is rare for a full bird hurricane to make a direct strike from New Orleans and points W along the Gulf. This does not mean it cannot happen, but is merely stated to elucidate that the current track guidance envelope fits well with climatologically favored track. - About 12-24 hours from now we see a rapid expansion of H588 heights across the deep S, subtending to some areas of the N Gulf. It is unclear to THIS Meteorologist whether the weakness promoting a "would-be" Alberto N motion will actually stay open long enough to really see HPCs guidance come to reality. ...They are doing the right thing when analyzing the means of the ensembles (all groups I've seen) as well as understanding the "overall" synoptic evolution over the Eastern CONUS region, as well as the tropical guidance its self. But that does not mean there is not room for debate in the matter. - The GFDL at 12z yesterday was flagging 104kts at impact...ah, CAT 3 folks! One must wonder how rare it would be to have your first impactive tropical cyclone event of any given year, be a major hurricane - should that happen. A remarkable thing I suspect. Anyway, point being...there is some conceptual issues regarding the intensification profile..disagreements notwithstanding... I can see either winning, BUT, an error tempo over the last 10 years is disturbing: It seems the curve of "realized intensity " has been verified UP the scale relative to the average "predicted intensity" - meaning, whatever the forecast has been, odds were (and I fear may continue during the AMDO 2 decade interval) that the event was stronger after the fact. Take your pick, this is true when considering just the last 5 years alone... Isabel, Wilma, Katrina...on and on, at one point the 72 hour prediction was a Cat 3 and much to everyone's chagrin the storm went through some form of exotic physics and wound up off the charts. - I am not saying that will take place this time, but, lending to some possibility that the intensity is underdone here is related to the points above regarding the synoptics and the reduction of NW shear in the area. One thing I have noticed over the years of my education, fascination and experience studying these phenomena, is that when they fester in one area and fight, they tend to have a particularly prolific intensification production at earliest convenience to do so.. That means...the shear relaxes for 10 minutes and BOOM. Also, there is a geographical SST concern here that this event is passing right over some very warm waters - as others have alluded to in this thread - and we should take lessons from Charley in this situation! -Oh, an additional point... I am a little weary of expecting that because we see the majority of the convection on the E semi we will see any subsequent propensity for storm characteristics over Florida... There is a storm morphology concern here, that if such a reduction if shear takes place, all current storm construct will probably rendor meaningless in a hurry in this situation.
I may post more later after I have had a chance to study some of the available guidance... My personal feeling when putting all this together are the following 2 points: a) Need to be wary of a potential and unexpectedly slow ..or delayed timing, because subsidence evolving through the mean column of the Gulf. That may cause a +PP exertion, perhaps poorly modeled at this time. Higher pressure might inhibit some of this N motion, to put it simply. b) Intensity favors being at the upper end of the available envelope of guidance/reasoning, not just because of recent climate behavior, but because with a rather abrupt reduction of shear (as currently modeled at 24 hours) while an already impressive S outflow channel exists S of would be Alberto, a period of more rapid intensification could take place as a mass conservation argument combines with high oceanic heat content.
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