Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

4:50 PM August 2006
Chris has held itself as a Tropical Storm today, but is still fairly organized, it has weakened a hair due to a bit of shear, but likely will recover somewhat overnight.

The forecast track was shifted slightly south today because of more models coming together. There is still a great deal of uncertainty past a few days. The most likely track still places the system into the Florida Straights, but the cone reaches toward Central Florida south through Cuba. Anyone from Cape Canaveral on the east coast into Cuba needs to continue to watch this system. It's small size will likely keep the affected area relatively small.

Hurricane Watches are up for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

See Clark's blog below for more details.

11:30 AM August 2006
The latest Advisory keeps Chris as a strong Tropical Storm, however some models are starting to get a better handle on the environment around the storm. The ridge to the north may cause Chris to stay further west, and possibly over Hispaniola, but there is enough uncertainty that I think that anyone in the Cone needs to watch, from the islands to the south to Southern Florida.

More to come later.

7 AM 02 August 2006
Based on Recon Reports, Chris is gaining toward Hurricane Strength, with near 65-70MPH winds now.

Chris has gained better structure overnight, but is listed as a medium to strong Tropical Storm wtih 60MPH winds. What is striking about Tropcial Storm Chris is how small it is, relatively. It is a compact storm and has the ability to spin up with winds (or spin down) very quickly. So intensity forecasts are about useless. That said, it does have the potential to become a major hurricane at some point, as it looks like it will indeed thread the needle between the upper lows. Doing so will actually enhance outflow, and give the system a chance to spin up.

Other factors could cause it to spin down too, such as a bit of dry air, but again since Chris is a compact system, it has a better chance of not being affected by that. Expect possiblity drastic fluctuations in intensity with Chris, both up and down.

The forecast track has shifted a bit more north, most models still are having a problem initializing Chris because of the small size, this means most models are nearly useless at the moment, but this may change.

Because of the model uncertainty, and the general uncertanty with intensity, Chris must be watched closely. Chris is a big cheater with the usual round of model predictions. If anything the current forecast track is a bit too far south, but if you are in the cone, you should at least monitor the situation. We still have a few days yet to get a better idea of where Chris will go.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Chris has strengthened during the day to a 60MPH Tropical Storm, it is now forecast to become a hurricane and skirt north of the Caribbean islands and enter the Bahamas. This places the cone of uncertainty well into south Florida, and will force everyone to watch this over the next several days. Currently it is more likely for the track to error north than south, but there are many factors invovled.

Folks in the Caribbean will want to watch it, as well as the Bahamas, and Central to South Florida should maintain vigilance on Chris.

Over the course of the afternoon, Chris decided it wanted to develop a Central Dense Overcast, type of feature. Complete with banding patterns typically associated with moderate to strong tropical storms. And Lo and behold, that's what we have right now. As noted in Clark's earlier blog post below, Chris will likely have intensification in fits and spurts for the next couple of days.

There willl likely be a bit of leveling off into the early morning hours before the next "leap" (if you will) of organization takes place -- before we see steadier intensification. This, of course, assumes that the storm stays off of Hispaniola. The only way it does not do that is if the ridge builds in much stronger than forecast, which is possible but is not very likely.

Even if there is a trough fracture-induced upper low that forms in a few days behind Chris, it is not going to affect the forecast thinking from the earlier blog...and may even provide another outflow channel to worry about. Clark is already starting to get worried about the organization of the storm leading to better outflow to the north and west in the short-term. Persistance and what happens there first is key before getting to the long term.

There isn't much to keep it from organzing more other than the standard organizational hurdles.
The Upper Level Low pressure area near the Bahamas, is already starting to retrogress; the trough it is connected to that extends on an east-west line some distance north of Chris should lift out in the next day or so.

In short, this means a major hurricane is possible from this one in the next 5 days while a storm of at least minimal hurricane intensity is likely in the next day or two. How strong the ridge builds in will determine the track forecast over the next 4-5 days and what parts of the extreme southwestern Atlantic need to worry; the intensity of the storm plus the timing and location of any waves in the flow aloft will determine what happens if and when Chris gets into the Gulf.

Overall, the National Hurricane Center cone width looks good, but Clark would shift it all about 100 miles to the north at 5 days. This means everyone in the Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Florida needs to watch this one for the weekend...points beyond Florida will have to wait..

Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Radar Imagery
Flhurricane long term radar recording of Chris
Flhurricane/HCW long term High Resolution Level 3 Radar Recording of Chris
San Juan, PR
Martinique Radar

Model; Plots (More at bottom of main page):
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Chris:

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot of Chris
Google Map Plot of Chris
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Post Extras

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