Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

Hi folks.
Chris washed out yesterday, and will have a hard time recovering (but the remnant low will get a couple days across the Gulf). There are several other areas of interest that have appeared since Friday, and one now is taking the forefront. Deep out in the Atlantic a new invest took shape overnight, 91L, the 12th of the year. It is about 600-700 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands, between 30-35W. The circulation is broad but has become detached from the ITCZ since yesterday, and it has some deep convection near the center as well. The upper air environment looks good for it to track WNW and intensify... usually a system at this stage out there is between 12-36 hours from classification, dependent on how quickly the convection can organize around the center. So, later today or tomorrow it is likely we'll see TD 4 and Debby.
Meanwhile there is more going on closer to home. The remnants of Chris, after an impressive convective burst in the evening, are over Western Cuba and in the Florida Straits. The remnant low is now essentially a surface trough, but is tracking WNW and in a more favorable environment than two days ago. It has some chance of redevelopment, but they're not great.
Further northwest, off the Louisiana coast, a broad surface circulation and mid-level low are attended by a persistent area of convection, with a decent upper environment here too. The system is close to the coast and has little time to develop (maybe a day before it moves west and inland over Texas), but has shown quite a bit of resilience for a former mesoscale thunderstorm complex. It also does not have great chances, but combined with those of erstwhile Chris it would not be surprising to see a weak but active system over the Gulf somewhere tomorrow.
Last but not least are three minor features. A well-defined wave nearing the Caribbean has a weak rotation far to the south on its axis--west of Trinidad. It has scant chances. An old frontal boundary is dying off the east coast and has spawned thunderstorms the last two days as it stalls and fades, though nothing currently indicates it will develop a low. Another upper low with two related surface lows are out in the northeastern Atlantic and unlikely to threaten anywhere, but may further develop as a hybrid system over the next few days.
There is maybe only one guaranteed system out there right now, but given the way things look it wouldn't be a huge surprise if we have more even more 'business' to deal with this week.

The features in the Gulf.

And those in the open Atlantic.

AL912006:

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Early dynamic/statistical runs on Invest 91L.

Various Links:
NRL Monterrey
RAMSDIS Satellite Imagery
NASA GHCC Satellite Imagery
Skeetobite's Page
SFMWD Page
MOE Models from FSU
Recent NCEP Model Runs
ECMWF Model

Edited by MikeC (Tue Aug 08 2006 09:13 PM)

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