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#TD2 Forecast to Become Barry. Tropical Storm Warning Issued for much of Veracruz. Flhurricane.com
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Next up, Debby
      Sun Aug 06 2006 09:01 AM

Hi folks.
Chris washed out yesterday, and will have a hard time recovering (but the remnant low will get a couple days across the Gulf). There are several other areas of interest that have appeared since Friday, and one now is taking the forefront. Deep out in the Atlantic a new invest took shape overnight, 91L, the 12th of the year. It is about 600-700 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands, between 30-35W. The circulation is broad but has become detached from the ITCZ since yesterday, and it has some deep convection near the center as well. The upper air environment looks good for it to track WNW and intensify... usually a system at this stage out there is between 12-36 hours from classification, dependent on how quickly the convection can organize around the center. So, later today or tomorrow it is likely we'll see TD 4 and Debby.
Meanwhile there is more going on closer to home. The remnants of Chris, after an impressive convective burst in the evening, are over Western Cuba and in the Florida Straits. The remnant low is now essentially a surface trough, but is tracking WNW and in a more favorable environment than two days ago. It has some chance of redevelopment, but they're not great.
Further northwest, off the Louisiana coast, a broad surface circulation and mid-level low are attended by a persistent area of convection, with a decent upper environment here too. The system is close to the coast and has little time to develop (maybe a day before it moves west and inland over Texas), but has shown quite a bit of resilience for a former mesoscale thunderstorm complex. It also does not have great chances, but combined with those of erstwhile Chris it would not be surprising to see a weak but active system over the Gulf somewhere tomorrow.
Last but not least are three minor features. A well-defined wave nearing the Caribbean has a weak rotation far to the south on its axis--west of Trinidad. It has scant chances. An old frontal boundary is dying off the east coast and has spawned thunderstorms the last two days as it stalls and fades, though nothing currently indicates it will develop a low. Another upper low with two related surface lows are out in the northeastern Atlantic and unlikely to threaten anywhere, but may further develop as a hybrid system over the next few days.
There is maybe only one guaranteed system out there right now, but given the way things look it wouldn't be a huge surprise if we have more even more 'business' to deal with this week.



The features in the Gulf.



And those in the open Atlantic.

AL912006:

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Early dynamic/statistical runs on Invest 91L.

Various Links:
NRL Monterrey
RAMSDIS Satellite Imagery
NASA GHCC Satellite Imagery
Skeetobite's Page
SFMWD Page
MOE Models from FSU
Recent NCEP Model Runs
ECMWF Model

Edited by MikeC (Tue Aug 08 2006 09:13 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Next up, Debby HanKFranK Sun Aug 06 2006 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Cat 5orBust   Tue Aug 08 2006 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby harmlc.ath.cx   Tue Aug 08 2006 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby SirCane   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:48 AM
. * * debby misses her audition HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:22 AM
. * * Re: debby misses her audition cieldumort   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:39 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Cat 5orBust   Tue Aug 08 2006 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby cuidado   Tue Aug 08 2006 10:28 AM
. * * stuff HanKFranK   Tue Aug 08 2006 11:21 AM
. * * Re: stuff doug   Tue Aug 08 2006 11:36 AM
. * * Re: stuff Ed in Va   Tue Aug 08 2006 11:46 AM
. * * Re: stuff Steve H1   Tue Aug 08 2006 12:36 PM
. * * 91l hurr789   Tue Aug 08 2006 01:12 PM
. * * Re: 91l harmlc.ath.cx   Tue Aug 08 2006 01:37 PM
. * * Re: 91l scottsvb   Tue Aug 08 2006 01:49 PM
. * * Re: There is little left to develope stormtiger   Tue Aug 08 2006 02:00 PM
. * * Re: There is little left to develope hurr789   Tue Aug 08 2006 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Analog - 1936 MapMaster   Tue Aug 08 2006 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Analog - Dr. Grey stormtiger   Tue Aug 08 2006 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Yesterday morning I thought we'd have one today. stormtiger   Tue Aug 08 2006 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Yesterday morning I thought we'd have one today. amonty   Tue Aug 08 2006 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Yesterday morning I thought we'd have one today. cieldumort   Tue Aug 08 2006 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Yesterday morning I thought we'd have one today. *DELETED* amonty   Tue Aug 08 2006 04:53 PM
. * * Re: There's dry air surrounding the system stormtiger   Tue Aug 08 2006 04:59 PM
. * * Re: It's now or never MapMaster   Tue Aug 08 2006 05:45 PM
. * * Re: It's now or never HanKFranK   Tue Aug 08 2006 05:54 PM
. * * Re: There's dry air surrounding the system allan   Tue Aug 08 2006 05:08 PM
. * * Re: There's dry air surrounding the system Colleen A.   Tue Aug 08 2006 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Yesterday morning I thought we'd have one today. cieldumort   Tue Aug 08 2006 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Yesterday morning I thought we'd have one today. Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 08 2006 04:48 PM
. * * Re: It certainly popped of more thunderstorms stormtiger   Tue Aug 08 2006 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Yesterday morning I thought we'd have one today. doug   Tue Aug 08 2006 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Yesterday morning I thought we'd have one today. nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Aug 08 2006 04:28 PM
. * * Re: 91l allan   Tue Aug 08 2006 01:21 PM
. * * Re: stuff allan   Tue Aug 08 2006 11:50 AM
. * * Re: stuff allan   Tue Aug 08 2006 11:45 AM
. * * Re: 91L...L as in eLongated MapMaster   Tue Aug 08 2006 11:34 AM
. * * Re: stuff SirCane   Tue Aug 08 2006 11:32 AM
. * * Re: 91L is getting ready to be hammered from the SE again. stormtiger   Tue Aug 08 2006 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Cat 5orBust   Mon Aug 07 2006 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby allan   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Colleen A.   Mon Aug 07 2006 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Colleen A.   Mon Aug 07 2006 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Randrew   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:05 AM
. * * Re: I attached another link of the ULL stormtiger   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:34 AM
. * * 91L/future debby HanKFranK   Mon Aug 07 2006 12:35 PM
. * * Re: 91L/future debby Ed in Va   Mon Aug 07 2006 01:19 PM
. * * Re: 91L/future debby harmlc.ath.cx   Mon Aug 07 2006 01:35 PM
. * * Re: 91L/future debby Randrew   Mon Aug 07 2006 02:24 PM
. * * Blow up near Puerto Rico NewWatcher   Mon Aug 07 2006 02:20 PM
. * * Re: 91L/future debby Storm Cooper   Mon Aug 07 2006 01:53 PM
. * * Re: 91L/future debby Black Pearl   Mon Aug 07 2006 01:34 PM
. * * Re: 91L/future debby newbie   Mon Aug 07 2006 02:06 PM
. * * Re: 91L/future debby Randrew   Mon Aug 07 2006 01:24 PM
. * * Re: The dry air is retreating West stormtiger   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby scottsvb   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Colleen A.   Mon Aug 07 2006 03:12 PM
. * * Re: "80 degrees" MapMaster   Mon Aug 07 2006 05:07 PM
. * * Re: "80 degrees" HanKFranK   Mon Aug 07 2006 05:15 PM
. * * Re: We all saw Chris stormtiger   Mon Aug 07 2006 05:33 PM
. * * Re: We all saw Chris HanKFranK   Mon Aug 07 2006 05:39 PM
. * * Re: We all saw Chris Margie   Mon Aug 07 2006 07:44 PM
. * * 91L danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 07 2006 07:54 PM
. * * Re: 91L Margie   Mon Aug 07 2006 08:41 PM
. * * Re: 91L cieldumort   Mon Aug 07 2006 08:20 PM
. * * Re: 91L Hugh   Mon Aug 07 2006 08:02 PM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 07 2006 08:22 PM
. * * Re: 91L dem05   Mon Aug 07 2006 09:18 PM
. * * Re: 91L allan   Mon Aug 07 2006 09:40 PM
. * * Re: 91L Storm Cooper   Mon Aug 07 2006 09:55 PM
. * * Re: 91L dem05   Mon Aug 07 2006 10:23 PM
. * * Re: 91L dem05   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:21 PM
. * * Re: 91L cieldumort   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:05 PM
. * * Re: 91L harmlc.ath.cx   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:23 PM
. * * Re: 91L HanKFranK   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:39 PM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:56 PM
. * * Re: 91L allan   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:13 PM
. * * Re: 91L Colleen A.   Tue Aug 08 2006 12:37 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 08 2006 12:52 AM
. * * Re: 91L Margie   Tue Aug 08 2006 08:10 AM
. * * Re: 91L JOC   Tue Aug 08 2006 08:28 AM
. * * Re: 91L Steve H1   Tue Aug 08 2006 10:02 AM
. * * Re: 91L allan   Tue Aug 08 2006 10:26 AM
. * * Re: 91L wereallgonnadie   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:08 PM
. * * Re: 91L Multi-Decadal Signal   Mon Aug 07 2006 11:17 PM
. * * Re: 91L Hugh   Mon Aug 07 2006 08:52 PM
. * * Re: 91L Randrew   Mon Aug 07 2006 09:08 PM
. * * Re: 91L Storm Cooper   Mon Aug 07 2006 09:20 PM
. * * Re: We all saw Chris cieldumort   Mon Aug 07 2006 07:12 PM
. * * Models Randrew   Mon Aug 07 2006 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Models MapMaster   Mon Aug 07 2006 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Models WeatherNut   Mon Aug 07 2006 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Models weather_wise911   Mon Aug 07 2006 06:43 PM
. * * Re: What is your take on the ULL dropping SW? stormtiger   Mon Aug 07 2006 05:50 PM
. * * GFDL Randrew   Mon Aug 07 2006 03:23 PM
. * * Re: GFDL FloydRTurbo   Mon Aug 07 2006 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Model Caveat MapMaster   Mon Aug 07 2006 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Posting timestamp on site in error? MapMaster   Mon Aug 07 2006 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Cat 5orBust   Sun Aug 06 2006 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby SirCane   Sun Aug 06 2006 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Black Pearl   Sun Aug 06 2006 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Hugh   Sun Aug 06 2006 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Randrew   Sun Aug 06 2006 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby weather_wise911   Sun Aug 06 2006 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby stormchazer   Sun Aug 06 2006 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby samiam   Sun Aug 06 2006 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby dem05   Sun Aug 06 2006 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby stormchazer   Sun Aug 06 2006 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby samiam   Sun Aug 06 2006 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby harmlc.ath.cx   Sun Aug 06 2006 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby allan   Sun Aug 06 2006 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Hugh   Sun Aug 06 2006 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby allan   Sun Aug 06 2006 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby samiam   Sun Aug 06 2006 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby SirCane   Mon Aug 07 2006 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby hurricaner   Mon Aug 07 2006 12:06 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby HurryCaneForm   Mon Aug 07 2006 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby samiam   Mon Aug 07 2006 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby allan   Mon Aug 07 2006 12:13 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby HanKFranK   Mon Aug 07 2006 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby madmumbler   Mon Aug 07 2006 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Storm Cooper   Mon Aug 07 2006 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby hurricaner   Mon Aug 07 2006 04:00 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby cieldumort   Mon Aug 07 2006 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Storm Cooper   Mon Aug 07 2006 06:52 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Hugh   Mon Aug 07 2006 08:01 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby JOC   Mon Aug 07 2006 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Ed in Va   Mon Aug 07 2006 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Storm Cooper   Sun Aug 06 2006 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby allan   Sun Aug 06 2006 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Hugh   Sun Aug 06 2006 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby allan   Sun Aug 06 2006 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby allan   Sun Aug 06 2006 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby allan   Sun Aug 06 2006 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Myles   Sun Aug 06 2006 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 06 2006 09:46 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Old Sailor   Sun Aug 06 2006 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Hugh   Sun Aug 06 2006 10:28 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Old Sailor   Sun Aug 06 2006 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 06 2006 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Next up, Debby Hugh   Sun Aug 06 2006 10:16 AM

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