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80% chance for something tropical to form around Saturday in the Gulf. Lots of rain for Florida and the NE Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 228 (Nate) , Major: 246 (Maria) Florida - Any: 256 (Irma) Major: 256 (Irma)
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
something immediate?
      Wed Aug 09 2006 10:56 AM

mind, even if this thing develops.. it's scraping along the very edge of a higher shear zone. allan is right.. if there' s a center it may have reformed early this morning (or somehow stayed concealed under the outflow decks from convective bursts last night), it is staying further to the south.
the forward speed has been increasing since yesterday and is now exceeding 20mph. this would be dangerously fast for a weak tropical cyclone. the trades are pushing it so fast that it helps increase storm relative shear and makes it difficult to remain closed.
we've seen waves in the past come barrelling into the islands (usually in july and the first half of august) during synoptic patterns like these, generating t.s. force winds but having only a vortmax aloft and a sharp windshift at the surface. 91L may be one of those... while it clearly had a closed surface low 24-72 hours ago, back then it was only doing 10-15 mph.
the upper air progs don't look very good for it. there is diffluence aloft, but it just under the base of a nike-swoosh shaped TUTT section that is weakening and reorienting as a sharp north-south upper trough... if it were just sliding along slowly this feature would likely reorient in front of 91L... not affecting it too harshly. over the next 2-3 days ridging should increase in the northern caribbean and this would create a favorable environment for the system. it has to run through an upper trough at high speed during the meanwhile though, so it's doubtful that a closed system would remain over the weekend, regardless.
gut tells me that even if recon goes in and finds a closed system or even a tropical storm... that it will tear right back open during the next day or two.
HF 1456z09august

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Nothing Immediate MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 09 2006 10:56 AM
. * * Re: recon Cat 5orBust   Sun Aug 13 2006 11:29 AM
. * * Re: recon HanKFranK   Sun Aug 13 2006 12:18 PM
. * * Re: recon lowtax   Sun Aug 13 2006 01:18 PM
. * * Re: recon scottsvb   Sun Aug 13 2006 01:38 PM
. * * Re: recon Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 13 2006 01:46 PM
. * * Re: recon scottsvb   Sun Aug 13 2006 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 11 2006 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 11 2006 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate cieldumort   Fri Aug 11 2006 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Clark   Fri Aug 11 2006 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate cieldumort   Fri Aug 11 2006 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate *DELETED* wereallgonnadie   Fri Aug 11 2006 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Storm Cooper   Fri Aug 11 2006 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate sara33   Fri Aug 11 2006 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate BillD   Fri Aug 11 2006 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate cieldumort   Sat Aug 12 2006 12:00 AM
. * * stuff that probably doesn't matter... HanKFranK   Sat Aug 12 2006 12:28 AM
. * * Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter... cieldumort   Sat Aug 12 2006 02:57 AM
. * * Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter... HurryCaneForm   Sat Aug 12 2006 04:24 PM
. * * NCEP Discussion roundup-early danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 12 2006 09:53 PM
. * * NWS Randrew   Sun Aug 13 2006 12:27 AM
. * * Re: NWS Ron Basso   Sun Aug 13 2006 10:10 AM
. * * Re: NWS cieldumort   Sun Aug 13 2006 03:16 AM
. * * Cent Atl. Randrew   Sun Aug 13 2006 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 13 2006 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. sunnygm   Sun Aug 13 2006 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. recmod   Sun Aug 13 2006 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 13 2006 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. stormchazer   Sun Aug 13 2006 11:06 AM
. * * Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter... Ed in Va   Sat Aug 12 2006 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate *DELETED* Major7   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate bhnole   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Texas Cane Tracker   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:06 PM
. * * something immediate? HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:56 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might stormtiger   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:46 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might FloydRTurbo   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:24 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might sunnygm   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:35 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Colleen A.   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:57 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might sunnygm   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:40 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might sunnygm   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:43 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might nl   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:25 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might madmumbler   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:15 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might SirCane   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:21 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might *DELETED* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* meto23   Wed Aug 09 2006 06:10 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might sara33   Wed Aug 09 2006 06:28 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might SebastianLou   Wed Aug 09 2006 07:20 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 09 2006 07:50 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:07 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might dem05   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:47 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:52 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Hugh   Wed Aug 09 2006 09:07 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might dem05   Wed Aug 09 2006 09:16 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:41 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Genesis   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:22 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might dem05   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:37 PM
. * * 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:10 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:24 AM
. * * Re: 91L cieldumort   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:10 AM
. * * GOM ULL danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:36 AM
. * * status quo HanKFranK   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:23 AM
. * * Re: status quo Bloodstar   Thu Aug 10 2006 03:56 AM
. * * Re: 91L taking the hard road stormtiger   Thu Aug 10 2006 09:53 AM
. * * Re: 91L taking the hard road bhnole   Thu Aug 10 2006 11:07 AM
. * * nodebby HanKFranK   Thu Aug 10 2006 11:27 AM
. * * Re: nodebby cuidado   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:37 PM
. * * Re: nodebby cieldumort   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:22 PM
. * * Re: nodebby Beaumont, TX   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:41 PM
. * * Re: nodebby cieldumort   Thu Aug 10 2006 02:03 PM
. * * Re: nodebby Texas Cane Tracker   Thu Aug 10 2006 03:30 PM
. * * Re: nodebby weather_wise911   Thu Aug 10 2006 04:59 PM
. * * Is this the right page? Randrew   Thu Aug 10 2006 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Is this the right page? cuidado   Fri Aug 11 2006 12:31 PM
. * * GOM ULL danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2006 10:51 PM
. * * Re: nodebby Genesis   Thu Aug 10 2006 04:52 PM
. * * Re: nodebby SirCane   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:34 PM
. * * Re: 91L taking the hard road Ed in Va   Thu Aug 10 2006 11:25 AM
. * * Re: status quo GeneF   Thu Aug 10 2006 08:35 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might dem05   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:49 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:35 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might GuppieGrouper   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:51 PM
. * * It Ain't over yet Randrew   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:29 PM
. * * Re: It Ain't over yet Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:51 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might bhnole   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:34 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might weather_wise911   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:44 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:31 PM
. * * No Closed Circulation Randrew   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:59 PM
. * * NRL Site Colleen A.   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:20 PM
. * * Re: NRL Site Fletch   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:35 PM
. * * Re: NRL Site HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:30 PM
. * * Re: NRL Site JOC   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:39 PM
. * * Re: NRL Site Randrew   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:29 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might cieldumort   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:01 PM
. * * ReWasn't it in 2004 we had similar instances stormtiger   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:17 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might cieldumort   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:53 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:57 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:54 PM
. * * barbados obs HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Is the process starting again? stormtiger   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:38 PM
. * * Recon.. wxman007   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. cieldumort   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. HurryCaneForm   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. JoeFL   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. SirCane   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:45 PM
. * * Florida ltpat228   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:43 PM
. * * Debby Randrew   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:52 AM
. * * RECON NOT CANCELLED NewWatcher   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:03 AM
. * * Re: HUH? MapMaster   Wed Aug 09 2006 09:36 AM
. * * Re: HUH? NewWatcher   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:03 AM
. * * Re: HUH? CoalCracker   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:32 AM
. * * Re: HUH? sara33   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:17 AM
. * * Re: HUH? HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:34 AM
. * * Re: HUH? LaVidaCyclone   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:03 AM
. * * Re: HUH? allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Steve H1   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate bhnole   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:00 AM

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