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Alberto a messy system, Rain starts for Florida later today. Rainy on east side of system, hot on west side. Landfall near AL Monday.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 230 (Nate) , Major: 248 (Maria) Florida - Any: 258 (Irma) Major: 258 (Irma)
20.9N 85.1W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: TD criteria
      Wed Aug 16 2006 07:22 PM

Quote:


It seems this could be the case. 93L has developed some deeper convection the last hour or so............
-we`ll see,
Weather_Wise911





The NHC's 530pm ET TWO flat-out says "THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD...BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY"

It seems like they expect it to fall apart, so they are holding the trigger back until there is clear and irrefutable signs of a tropical depression. Looking at the IR loop, I see weakening convection, not strengthening. It might blossom overnight, but it's got a ways to go.

I think it's interesting that the NHC doesn't even mention the probably SW track toward the Georgia/Florida east coast, which is where most of the models put this thing.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Two Systems to Watch MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 16 2006 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Two Systems to Watch Cat 5orBust   Tue Aug 15 2006 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Two Systems to Watch Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 15 2006 07:50 AM
. * * Re: Two Systems to Watch allan   Tue Aug 15 2006 09:16 AM
. * * Model Updates Colleen A.   Tue Aug 15 2006 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Model Updates Old Sailor   Tue Aug 15 2006 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Model Updates Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 15 2006 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Model Updates nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Aug 15 2006 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Two Systems to Watch Colleen A.   Tue Aug 15 2006 08:47 AM
. * * Models and the TWO dem05   Mon Aug 14 2006 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Models and the TWO Colleen A.   Mon Aug 14 2006 09:21 AM
. * * Re: Models and the TWO Black Pearl   Mon Aug 14 2006 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Models and the TWO nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 14 2006 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Models and the TWO Nateball   Mon Aug 14 2006 11:24 AM
. * * 94L Brad in Miami   Mon Aug 14 2006 11:49 AM
. * * 92-94 HanKFranK   Mon Aug 14 2006 12:49 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 Colleen A.   Mon Aug 14 2006 02:59 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 cieldumort   Mon Aug 14 2006 03:48 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 scottsvb   Mon Aug 14 2006 05:49 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 cieldumort   Tue Aug 15 2006 02:45 AM
. * * Re: 92-94 HanKFranK   Tue Aug 15 2006 03:12 AM
. * * Re: 92-94 cieldumort   Tue Aug 15 2006 03:50 AM
. * * Re: 92-94 scottsvb   Tue Aug 15 2006 12:06 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Aug 15 2006 12:36 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 cieldumort   Tue Aug 15 2006 02:04 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 Ron Basso   Tue Aug 15 2006 02:02 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Aug 15 2006 02:05 PM
. * * 93;/gulf HanKFranK   Tue Aug 15 2006 03:00 PM
. * * Re: 93;/gulf Beaumont, TX   Tue Aug 15 2006 08:14 PM
. * * Re: 93;/gulf Ron Basso   Tue Aug 15 2006 03:19 PM
. * * Re: 93;/gulf rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 15 2006 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Azores MapMaster   Tue Aug 15 2006 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Azores Shawn M   Tue Aug 15 2006 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Azores stormchasersince1976   Tue Aug 15 2006 05:13 PM
. * * Re: READ THE UPDATE HURRICANELONNY   Tue Aug 15 2006 05:24 PM
. * * Re: READ THE UPDATE Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 15 2006 05:37 PM
. * * Re: READ THE UPDATE weather_wise911   Tue Aug 15 2006 06:09 PM
. * * Re: READ THE UPDATE stormchasersince1976   Tue Aug 15 2006 06:12 PM
. * * Re: READ THE UPDATE Beaumont, TX   Tue Aug 15 2006 08:21 PM
. * * 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site Colleen A.   Tue Aug 15 2006 10:29 PM
. * * Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site cieldumort   Tue Aug 15 2006 10:42 PM
. * * Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site Colleen A.   Tue Aug 15 2006 10:47 PM
. * * Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site cieldumort   Tue Aug 15 2006 10:56 PM
. * * Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site Genesis   Tue Aug 15 2006 11:20 PM
. * * Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site dem05   Wed Aug 16 2006 01:16 AM
. * * Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site dem05   Wed Aug 16 2006 01:38 AM
. * * Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site Goosus   Wed Aug 16 2006 03:06 AM
. * * *other HanKFranK   Wed Aug 16 2006 02:08 AM
. * * Re: *other dem05   Wed Aug 16 2006 03:07 AM
. * * Re: *other cieldumort   Wed Aug 16 2006 04:28 AM
. * * Re: *other GuppieGrouper   Wed Aug 16 2006 08:12 AM
. * * Re: *other MapMaster   Wed Aug 16 2006 09:30 AM
. * * 93L organizing HanKFranK   Wed Aug 16 2006 10:31 AM
. * * Re: 93L organizing BillD   Wed Aug 16 2006 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Question MapMaster   Wed Aug 16 2006 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Question HanKFranK   Wed Aug 16 2006 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Question cieldumort   Wed Aug 16 2006 06:13 PM
. * * Re: TD criteria MapMaster   Wed Aug 16 2006 04:39 PM
. * * Re: TD criteria cieldumort   Wed Aug 16 2006 05:10 PM
. * * Re: TD criteria weather_wise911   Wed Aug 16 2006 07:12 PM
. * * Re: TD criteria dem05   Wed Aug 16 2006 07:42 PM
. * * Re: TD criteria cieldumort   Wed Aug 16 2006 08:08 PM
. * * Re: TD criteria Hugh   Wed Aug 16 2006 07:22 PM
. * * 93L danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 16 2006 07:34 PM
. * * Re: 93L dem05   Wed Aug 16 2006 07:50 PM
. * * Re: 93L Louiss   Wed Aug 16 2006 08:39 PM
. * * Re: 93L HanKFranK   Wed Aug 16 2006 11:07 PM
. * * Re: 93L danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 16 2006 08:03 PM
. * * Re: 93L dem05   Wed Aug 16 2006 08:12 PM
. * * Re: 93L Clark   Wed Aug 16 2006 08:21 PM
. * * utterly weird HanKFranK   Wed Aug 16 2006 11:41 PM
. * * Re: utterly weird cieldumort   Thu Aug 17 2006 05:31 AM
. * * Re: utterly weird GuppieGrouper   Thu Aug 17 2006 05:40 AM
. * * Re: utterly weird cieldumort   Thu Aug 17 2006 06:01 AM
. * * Re: utterly weird cieldumort   Thu Aug 17 2006 04:04 AM
. * * Re: utterly weird wereallgonnadie   Wed Aug 16 2006 11:46 PM
. * * Re: TD criteria HurryCaneForm   Wed Aug 16 2006 06:02 PM
. * * Re: TD criteria cieldumort   Wed Aug 16 2006 06:16 PM
. * * Re: 93L organizing Clark   Wed Aug 16 2006 04:11 PM
. * * Re: 93L organizing danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 16 2006 11:28 AM
. * * Re: 93L organizing cieldumort   Wed Aug 16 2006 01:31 PM
. * * 93L QuikScat Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 16 2006 01:47 PM
. * * Re: 93L QuikScat HanKFranK   Wed Aug 16 2006 01:53 PM
. * * Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site HanKFranK   Wed Aug 16 2006 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Meanwhile MapMaster   Tue Aug 15 2006 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Azores HurryCaneForm   Tue Aug 15 2006 05:18 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Aug 15 2006 02:57 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 allan   Tue Aug 15 2006 01:05 PM
. * * 93L Colleen A.   Tue Aug 15 2006 09:01 AM
. * * Re: 92-94 Solak   Tue Aug 15 2006 07:03 AM
. * * Re: 92-94 cieldumort   Tue Aug 15 2006 12:10 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 wereallgonnadie   Tue Aug 15 2006 07:48 AM
. * * Re: 92-94 amonty   Mon Aug 14 2006 08:05 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 scottsvb   Mon Aug 14 2006 08:51 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 HurryCaneForm   Mon Aug 14 2006 09:01 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 15 2006 12:07 AM
. * * Re: 92-94 scottsvb   Tue Aug 15 2006 12:57 AM
. * * Re: 92-94 HanKFranK   Tue Aug 15 2006 02:23 AM
. * * Re: 92-94 dem05   Mon Aug 14 2006 06:18 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 Colleen A.   Mon Aug 14 2006 07:57 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 HurryCaneForm   Mon Aug 14 2006 01:23 PM
. * * Re: 92-94 scottsvb   Mon Aug 14 2006 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Models and the TWO GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 14 2006 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Two Systems to Watch danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 13 2006 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Two Systems to Watch ltpat228   Sun Aug 13 2006 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Two Systems to Watch danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 13 2006 10:59 PM

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