Ernesto has made it through the night, and probably some of the worst shear it will encounter, which leaves just a bit more shear today and tomorrow, but gradually upper level high pressure will build over it, giving it the potential to become a major hurricane as it nears Cuba and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico.
Overall Ernesto became more organized overnight.
For Jamaica, currently it is forecast to be a stronger Tropical Storm as it approaches the island. A tropical storm watch remains up for the island, if Ernesto were to strengthen more than forecast in the short term, it may be possible to see a hurricane warning or watch as well.
Beyond Jamaica things begin to be interesting, the western tip of Cuba likely will be impacted from this system, by then most likely a hurricane. Beyond Cuba, it is currently forecast to be in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which I don't like to see as it puts a very large area of coastline under the gun at least for future track. Anywhere in the cone needs to be on the watch for this system. As far west as Texas, and east as Florida. The models have trended more east overnight too, but I'm waiting to see if this persists through the day to bank on that. Unforunately, conditions are setting up to allow the system to become a strong hurricane in the Gulf.
Midnight Update Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from the Haiti-Dominican Republic Border westward to the Southwestern tip of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Jamaica
Interests in the Cayman Islands and Cuba should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ernesto.
4:40PM Update Tropical Storm watches are up for southwest Haiti, and Tropical storm watches are also up for Jamaica.
Original Update From Recon Reports and observations, it is apparant that Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed, and the next advisory should reflect this.
The center of circulation may be a bit ahead, but the storm still has reached enough strength to be considered a tropical storm.
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