MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
Sun Aug 27 2006 12:54 PM
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4:35 PM Update
Ernesto has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm.
Hurricane Watches are up for the entire Florida Keys as well.
More to come soon...
2 PM Update
Official advisory still has Ernesto as a hurricane, but based on the latest recon observation, it is much weaker and being affected by land. With hope, the island of Hati will disrupt the storm enough to tear it apart. More information is needed, however. More to come later...
1:30 PM Update
Monroe County Emergency Management Officials have ordered all visitors and non-residents to begin leaving the Keys at 1 PM EDT today. Those in the areas should start looking toward state and local officials and local news media outlets for more details.
Original Update
Mid day Ernesto Update: Also see Clark Evans' blog below.
Hurricane or Tropical Storm watches may go up for the lower Florida keys later today.
Residents of the Florida Keys should begin to make evacuation plans for the early morning hours tomorrow in advance of the storm. Residents of the southern half of the Peninsula should begin reviewing their hurricane preparedness plans, just in case. Residents further north along the west coast of Florida north of Tampa need to begin thinking about making preparations for a potential direct imapct from Ernesto sometime late in the work week, and e veryone else just needs to stay abreast of the situation for the time being.
Cuba has issued hurricane warnings for Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Cgranma, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Camaguey provinces.
A hurricane warning also remains for southwestern Hati. High winds and much rainfall will cause a lot of grief for the folks in the area.
Hank tells us that the thoughts on Ernesto are almost a completely different situation than yesterday.
For most of yesterday it seemed as if Florida wasn't even in the 'cone' everybody always worries over..... today it's the most prominent feature there behind perhaps Cuba.
However, this is one of those situations where subtleties of the track and the character of the storm make the intensity forecasts close to useless. We are likely going into a Dennis or Charley type situation here (See map of all three storms plotted).. something with elements of both, but with some potential key differences.
Hurricane Ernesto appears to be a very small-core system. Systems like these can spin up and down very rapidly. Ernesto is in a very similar position to where Dennis was last year.. and Dennis spun up to a very strong category 4 as it grazed into southern Cuba.
Hurricane Ernesto does not have nearly the organization or quite the upper environment Dennis had, so while it may finally deepen (hasn't really since yesterday... 997mb is usually associated with a Tropical Storm) some before making landfall tomorrow morning, it probably won't be a major hurricane going in.
It also looks to take a longer, more tortuous track over Cuba than Dennis did.. and after that the similarities with Dennis may end. Dennis did spin rapidly back up to a category 4 after leaving Cuba, though.. as a note.
The similarities with Charley are that a trough will be stationed northwest of Ernesto and Recurve the storm... maybe over the peninsula of Florida, maybe into north Florida... maybe even across southeast Florida.
The storm will likely be a mid-range tropical storm leaving Cuba (note the official NHC forecast keeps it a hurricane, both are possible) with a disrupted core. a few hours over the Florida straits may or may not allow it to reorganize, so if it goes right into south Florida, don't expect much of a storm.
If it tracks a bit further west, say into or west of the Keys, and is not hugging the southwestern Florida coast.. it will be doing something like what Charley did, and may be able to spin up substantially.
A much weakened storm over Cuba may actually be worse than a slightly weakened one, because the tendency to get further out in the gulf will be greater if the storm is weaker.
These are just subtle factors in track here, but they also can make the difference between a tropical storm for Florida, or a major hurricane. It is worth noting that the threat of a massive, large wind field hurricane that can smash hundreds of miles of coastal structures with surge is out of the question. The threat for a strong hurricane would be one with a tight, intense wind core that could inflict substantial structural damage close to the landfall point, and maybe a ways inland from there.
There is something else a tad interesting and that is the threat of the storm slowing down, if the ridging doesn't decay as much as shown or the trough doesn't dig as much. The storm could potentially slow to a drift over the Gulf in such scenario... not strongly represented by any model, but theoretically possible. It could also move very slowly over Florida and cause flooding in places. The threat for a big hurricane hit on Florida is fairly limited to the west central coast up to the big bend area. the panhandle, isn't totally out of the woods and if the storm were to come up there could be facing a mature and dangerous hurricane.
Right now it doesn't look like there will be enough ridging to take it there. Places like Georgia and the Carolinas... the northeast part of Florida... would maybe experience tropical storm conditions along the coastline... maybe a little stronger further up in the Carolinas right near the coast if it were to move a little offshore and reintensify.
There will be lots of rain whether it does that or tracks inland... either way.
elsewhere.. Debby has just about signed off for 2006... the wave/low combo near 17/33 is well-defined with weak convection, but in a region of subsidence and marginal water that should prevent any development for another day or two.
Mild model support for it, and it already has plenty of latitude which should promote an early recurvature for anything that might form. Beyond that the Atlantic may very well continue active in the coming week or two.
Where do you thiink Ernesto will go? Let us know here
Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob
Reply and let us know of other links.
Ernesto
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto
Debby
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
More model runs on Debby from Jonathan Vigh's page
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Debby
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
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