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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3889
Loc: Orlando, FL
What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto?
      Sun Aug 27 2006 10:32 PM

7 AM Monday Update
At 5 AM EDT the National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Southern Peninsula of Florida.
From Deerfield Beach Southward, and
from South of Chokolokee Southward along the West Coast.
A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for All of the Florida Keys, and for Andros Island in the Bahamas.



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ragged Island and Great Exuma in the Bahamas.

Ernesto is betwen Hati and Cuba at the moment, still recovering from land interaction yesterday. The current official national hurricane center forecast now keeps the storm a tropical storm over Cuba, but allows for some reintensification before reaching the upper keys and crossing into south Florida, and up through the state very near the east coast of Florida throughout Wednesday. It could give us in central Florida up to 6 inches of rain.

Intensity wise the hurricane center expects it to regain to hurricane strength in the Florida Straits, as the conditions there will be almost perfect for intensification when it reaches there. Very warm water, near zero shear, which gives it a window to rapidly strengthen (Remember Ernesto is a compact system).

The window of opportunity, however, is short, so it's not too likely, but possible, so those in the south Florida coastline will want to prepare for a Category 2 hurricane at least and hope for much better. Better would be further east and off the coast entirely and / or a weaker storm.

If the system stays over Cuba longer it may never reach hurricane strength before crossing into Florida, interactions with Cuba make predicting how strong the system will be very difficult.

In short we probably will not know this until tomorrow / after it cross Cuba..

11 PM Sunday Update
Hurricane Watches are now up for Andros island in the Bahamas. And tropical storm warnings for other parts. No new watches for Florida have been issued tonight.

The current forecast track has Ernesto staying a Tropical Storm over Cuba, then strengthening into a Category one hurricane before making landfall on the west coast of Florida and moving up through the central part of the
state into central Florida just west of Orlando wednesday night.





What happened? One guess is that the small upper vortex directly north of Ernesto is shearing it from one side, and helping enhance the anticyclone situated in a swath around the south and east sides of the storm. With the exception of the dab of convection firing near the center in the windward passage, the rest has pretty much been on feeder bands east of the center, bursting like crazy over and around the rest of Hispaniola.

The core has spun down from lack of inflow -- these factors took a marginal hurricane this morning and cracked up the small core . Iit has weakened enough to where it may just redevelop on the north coast of Cuba. Otherwise it should weaken, maybe even to a depression, and drift across Cuba. Now with the somewhat unexpected twists to the synoptic environment around the storm that it will fare very well unless/until it gets north of the greater Antilles. Hispaniola looks to have really wrecked the intensity, but strangely the satellite signature and overall profile of the storm does not suggest it will do anything but remain weak until it can get a little distance from mountainous land, then reintensify.

The entire Florida coast, Cuba, and the Bahamas are still under the gun. Ernesto can spin up just as fast as it spun down.

Where do you thiink Ernesto will go? Let us know here


Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop

Emergency Management/County info
East Coast Florida Coutny Websites (South to North along the East Coast)
Miami-Date County, FL
Broward County, FL (Ft. Lauderdale)
Palm Beach County, FL
Martin County, FL
St. Lucie County, FL
Indian River County, FL (Vero Beach)
Brevard County, FL
Volusia County, FL (Daytona Beach)
Flagler County, FL
St. Johns County, FL (St. Augustine)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)
[Nassau County, FL


West Coast Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.



Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 27 2006 10:32 PM
. * * Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:50 AM
. * * Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am JMII   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:09 AM
. * * Water Vapor Loop Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Water Vapor Loop madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Upper Low MapMaster   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Water Vapor Loop anon tiger   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Water Vapor Loop MikenHoliday   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:01 AM
. * * Re: anything else? madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:59 AM
. * * Re: anything else? BillyG60   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:06 AM
. * * Re: anything else? nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: anything else? JOC   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am LisaC   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am mommy21   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am charlottefl   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am JMII   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am tpratch   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am amonty   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am Wxwatcher2   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am JMII   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am NewWatcher   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am tpratch   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am tpratch   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am NewWatcher   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am hornedcow   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:15 AM
. * * Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? NewWatcher   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:59 AM
. * * Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:08 AM
. * * Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? hornedcow   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:21 AM
. * * Re:Time stamps MapMaster   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:24 AM
. * * Bush's Press Conf. LisaC   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:30 AM
. * * Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:34 AM
. * * Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? JustMe   Mon Aug 28 2006 06:30 AM
. * * Ernesto.... nicolew   Mon Aug 28 2006 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:47 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... engicedave   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:04 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... flranger   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:17 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... engicedave   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:29 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:50 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:59 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Hugh   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:14 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... LoisCane   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... charlottefl   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:22 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... meto23   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Wxwatcher2   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... MadDog   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Ned   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... sara33   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:00 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... amonty   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... LisaC   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... inHISgrip   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... The Bear   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:55 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... hawg92   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... hawg92   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... NewWatcher   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... chase 22   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:29 AM
. * * over cuba HanKFranK   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:37 AM
. * * Re: over cuba amonty   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:00 AM
. * * Re: over cuba nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... charlottefl   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... vineyardsaker   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... tpratch   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto and History MapMaster   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... NewWatcher   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:46 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... The Bear   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:45 AM
. * * water vapor shows high possibly eroding.. LoisCane   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Future storm? Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:11 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:57 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Beach   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Ned   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:52 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... leetdan   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:39 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... RockledgeRick   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:44 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto.... charlottefl   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:28 AM
. * * Ernesto & FL East Coast Track? berrywr   Mon Aug 28 2006 02:47 AM
. * * Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? NeilT   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:12 PM
. * * First shot HanKFranK   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:45 PM
. * * Re: First shot dredlox   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:25 PM
. * * Re: First shot TampaRand   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:29 PM
. * * Re: JETSTREAM dhsfireman   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:35 PM
. * * Re: First shot HanKFranK   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:34 PM
. * * Re: First shot JMII   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:51 PM
. * * Re: First shot TampaRand   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:59 PM
. * * Re: First shot MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 28 2006 12:03 AM
. * * Re: First shot inHISgrip   Mon Aug 28 2006 12:19 AM
. * * Re: First shot Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 12:14 AM
. * * Re: First shot TampaRand   Mon Aug 28 2006 12:19 AM
. * * Re: First shot TampaRand   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:40 PM
. * * Re: First shot Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:53 PM
. * * Re: First shot Rasvar   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:59 PM
. * * Re: First shot Josh Delsman   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:48 PM
. * * Re: First shot JMII   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:51 PM
. * * Re: First shot RevUp   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:54 PM
. * * Re: First shot Josh Delsman   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:57 PM
. * * Re: First shot TampaRand   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:04 PM
. * * Re: First shot Josh Delsman   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:11 PM
. * * Re: First shot TampaRand   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:19 PM
. * * nasa's reaction clueless   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:09 PM
. * * Re: nasa's reaction Rasvar   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:19 PM
. * * Re: First shot Rasvar   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:08 PM
. * * Model Shifts Colleen A.   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Model Shifts inHISgrip   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Model Shifts Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Model Shifts HurryCaneForm   Mon Aug 28 2006 12:21 AM
. * * this is rich HanKFranK   Mon Aug 28 2006 12:47 AM
. * * Re: this is rich danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:00 AM
. * * Re: this is rich inHISgrip   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:04 AM
. * * Re: this is rich nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:09 AM
. * * Re: this is rich danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:13 AM
. * * Re: this is rich hurricaneguy   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:23 AM
. * * Re: this is rich Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:23 AM
. * * Re: this is rich nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:34 AM
. * * Re: this is rich Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:39 AM
. * * Re: this is rich JustMe   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:46 AM
. * * Re: this is rich nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 28 2006 02:10 AM
. * * Re: this is rich WeatherNLU   Mon Aug 28 2006 02:14 AM
. * * Re: this is rich danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 28 2006 02:19 AM
. * * Satellites danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 28 2006 02:31 AM
. * * Re: Satellites HanKFranK   Mon Aug 28 2006 02:40 AM
. * * Models danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 28 2006 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Models WeatherNLU   Mon Aug 28 2006 02:53 AM
. * * Re: Models danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 28 2006 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Models cieldumort   Mon Aug 28 2006 03:26 AM
. * * Re: Models hurricaneguy   Mon Aug 28 2006 03:38 AM
. * * Re: Models Ned   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:33 AM
. * * Re: Models Ned   Mon Aug 28 2006 12:02 PM
. * * re: ULL pulling it.. LoisCane   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:14 AM
. * * Re: Models tornado00   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Models Susan in Jupiter, FL   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Models Ned   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:29 AM
. * * Re: Models tornado00   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:48 AM
. * * Re: Models SebastianLou   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:22 AM
. * * Re: Models Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:29 AM
. * * Re: Models Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:28 AM
. * * Re: Models Ned   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:17 AM
. * * Re: this is rich nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:45 AM
. * * Re: this is rich Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Model Shifts hurricaneguy   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:53 PM
. * * Update danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati Josh Delsman   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati Colleen A.   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati allan   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati Rasvar   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati chase 22   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:42 PM

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