MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Ernesto Over Cuba
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:07 AM
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4:45PM Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are up Vero Beach Southward, the hurricane watch from New Smyrna Beach southward also remains up.
Tropical Storm Warnings for the West coast run from Chokoloskee southward. Tropical Storm watches are up from there north to Englewood.
More to come soon.
Original Update
Ernesto is currently inland over southeastern Cuba, barely a tropical storm at this time. It is feeling the effects of both land plus an upper level low immediately to its north. Those of you who have been watching Ernesto since it's birth may recall that this is the upper low that was located about 10 degrees N of the storm at its inception. Model guidance initially called for it to fracture and move off to the east, but it never did. Instead, it kept a weakness in the ridge and has been the primary culprit for not allowing Ernesto to move toward the west. For instance, the upper low that initially sheared Ernesto -- it got underneath the ridge and accelerated toward the west. Differences in handling the upper low over the Atlantic -- and not the upper low over the Pacific NW -- have resulted in these unforseen track changes, and thus it is the eastern US seaboard from Miami all the way up to the Outer Banks and potentially New England that is under the gun from Ernesto, and not Texas.
Hurricane watches are currently up along the east coast of Florida from the keys to New Smyrna Beach, FL, with Ernesto forecast to be a category 1 hurricane at landfall in the next 2 days or so. Residents along the entire Eastern seaboard need to pay attention to the evolution of Ernesto over the next couple of days. There is always a chance that Ernesto is significantly affected by interactions with Cuba, necessitating future track changes, so stay tuned.
More to come soon...
Know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here
Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Emergency Management/County info
East Coast Florida Coutny Websites (South to North along the East Coast)
Miami-Date County, FL
Broward County, FL (Ft. Lauderdale)
Palm Beach County, FL
Martin County, FL
St. Lucie County, FL
Indian River County, FL (Vero Beach)
Brevard County, FL
Volusia County, FL (Daytona Beach)
Flagler County, FL
St. Johns County, FL (St. Augustine)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)
[Nassau County, FL
West Coast Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here
"This Week in the Tropics" with Dave Tolleris from wxrisk.com has an audio show with Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) at 8PM EDT. Mike Watkins will be discussing Ernesto with.
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob
Reply and let us know of other links.
Ernesto
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto
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