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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL
Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba
      Mon Aug 28 2006 07:22 PM

11PM Update
Tropical storm warnings now extend on the west coast up to Bonita Beach.

It's expected to make landfall in south or southwest Florida crossing the Keys as a tropical storm.

Some strengthening will occur when Ernesto gets over water (it's still not quite off Cuba yet) but most likely not enough to take it to hurricane strength.




Know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here

Original Update
Ernesto's center of circulation is still inland in Cuba, but it is nearing the exit point. Still considered a weak tropical storm, it will begin to emerge into a much more favorible area north of Cuba.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up Vero Beach Southward, the hurricane watch from New Smyrna Beach southward also remains up.

Tropical Storm Warnings for the West coast run from Chokoloskee southward. Tropical Storm watches are up from there north to Englewood.



Ernesto is now a disorganized, low-end tropical storm with decreasing land interaction. Ahead of it lies the classic ingredients that make a mean storm (ridging aloft, agua caliente, a good inflow source from the east).

What it does not have is time. The critical question is this... Can Ernesto redevelop the inner core and bomb before it gets to shore? The National Hurricane Center official forecast does not allow for this, and it is likely correct. The chance of it getting re-organized in six hours and then plummeting 50 mb in the next 24 is not very high. The track should be very close to right on, and the GFS and globals that take it more over the peninsula but keep it weaker than it ought to be.

West florida isn't out of the woods in case it remains weaker and sweeps around through the straights or up the peninsula.. and it could miss east, too. Once it crosses florida it will again have another chance to develop.

The rest of the week will continue active as none of the models recurve the storm anymore... all either snag it offshore and push it back, or just run it into the carolinas outright. looks like 2 more landfalls for Ernesto. there's a mix of ways that the models are doing this and it's hard to know which one to buy into until it's visit with Florida is made.. whatever departs will determine whatever shows up down in Charleston, Myrtle Beach.. or maybe up in North Carolina.

More to come tonight as the system progresses.

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show Monday - Wednesday every night as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

"This Week in the Tropics" with Dave Tolleris from wxrisk.com has an audio show with Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) at 8PM EDT. Mike Watkins will be discussing Ernesto with him.

Event Related Links

Cuban Radar near Ernesto
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop

Emergency Management/County info
East Coast Florida Coutny Websites (South to North along the East Coast)
Miami-Date County, FL
Broward County, FL (Ft. Lauderdale)
Palm Beach County, FL
Martin County, FL
St. Lucie County, FL
Indian River County, FL (Vero Beach)
Brevard County, FL
Volusia County, FL (Daytona Beach)
Flagler County, FL
St. Johns County, FL (St. Augustine)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)
[Nassau County, FL


West Coast Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)




Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.



Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 28 2006 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba ernestos   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba dolfinatic   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba ernestos   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba dolfinatic   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Tropics Guy   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:13 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:26 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba scottsvb   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba scottsvb   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:22 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba HanKFranK   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:35 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:45 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:59 AM
. * * Ernesto moving to se Florida ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:27 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida nl   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:49 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida JMII   Tue Aug 29 2006 07:22 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida BrooklynMommy   Tue Aug 29 2006 07:14 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida StormHound   Tue Aug 29 2006 07:22 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 29 2006 07:29 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida NewWatcher   Tue Aug 29 2006 07:40 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida Ginger   Tue Aug 29 2006 07:14 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba meto23   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:24 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:13 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba TampaRand   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba DougBaker   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba The Bear   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Daniel294   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba The Bear   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba TampaRand   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba 7 Deadly Zins   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba andy1tom   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba *DELETED* tornado00   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba offdalip   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:58 PM
. * * Vipir FireAng85   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba dredlox   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba JMII   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba sprghill   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:59 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba TampaRand   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba scottsvb   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba rhendryx   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Geoff   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Londovir   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba wereallgonnadie   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba pcola   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba weather_wise911   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba hawg92   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba hawg92   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:54 PM
. * * IF he stays over warmer water longer LoisCane   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:12 PM
. * * Re: IF he stays over warmer water longer madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba saluki   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Ginger   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba pcola   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Neilt   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba TampaRand   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Tropics Guy   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba The Bear   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba engicedave   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba EMS   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Tony Cristaldi   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba BillD   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba JMII   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba engicedave   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba NewWatcher   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba dem05   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba MissMary   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba dem05   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba The Bear   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba amonty   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba The Bear   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba inHISgrip   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba TampaRand   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Hugh   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba West FL Jess   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba dolfinatic   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba jbmusic   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba chase 22   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba dolfinatic   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba SirCane   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba SirCane   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba HurryCaneForm   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba scottsvb   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Colleen A.   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba HanKFranK   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba dolfinatic   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba mj- maxx   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* ZackWeather   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba scottsvb   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Genesis   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba hurricaneguy   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Heather   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Storm Cooper   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba JustMe   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba TampaRand   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Ron Basso   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba chase 22   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba The Bear   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Tropics Guy   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:48 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba hurricaneguy   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba madmumbler   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba pcola   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba TampaRand   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba tpratch   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba vvvteddybearvvv   Mon Aug 28 2006 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:23 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Josh Delsman   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba dem05   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Hugh   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:59 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba TampaRand   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba amonty   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba OrlandoDan   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba sara33   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:25 PM

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