Original Update Ernesto's center of circulation is still inland in Cuba, but it is nearing the exit point. Still considered a weak tropical storm, it will begin to emerge into a much more favorible area north of Cuba.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up Vero Beach Southward, the hurricane watch from New Smyrna Beach southward also remains up.
Tropical Storm Warnings for the West coast run from Chokoloskee southward. Tropical Storm watches are up from there north to Englewood.
Ernesto is now a disorganized, low-end tropical storm with decreasing land interaction. Ahead of it lies the classic ingredients that make a mean storm (ridging aloft, agua caliente, a good inflow source from the east).
What it does not have is time. The critical question is this... Can Ernesto redevelop the inner core and bomb before it gets to shore? The National Hurricane Center official forecast does not allow for this, and it is likely correct. The chance of it getting re-organized in six hours and then plummeting 50 mb in the next 24 is not very high. The track should be very close to right on, and the GFS and globals that take it more over the peninsula but keep it weaker than it ought to be.
West florida isn't out of the woods in case it remains weaker and sweeps around through the straights or up the peninsula.. and it could miss east, too. Once it crosses florida it will again have another chance to develop.
The rest of the week will continue active as none of the models recurve the storm anymore... all either snag it offshore and push it back, or just run it into the carolinas outright. looks like 2 more landfalls for Ernesto. there's a mix of ways that the models are doing this and it's hard to know which one to buy into until it's visit with Florida is made.. whatever departs will determine whatever shows up down in Charleston, Myrtle Beach.. or maybe up in North Carolina.
More to come tonight as the system progresses.
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show Monday - Wednesday every night as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
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