Good Morning All. TD-6 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Felix at the 5am advisory.
The convection continues to expand with continuing organization of the feeder bands, several of which are now in evidence in the western semi-circle, with more beginning to take shape in the S and SE quads.
Also, the deep convection has maintained very cold cloud top temps of -70 to -80, all the while continuing to organize better, implying that gradual intensification is underway. And upper level outflow is quite good and only improving.
From NHC's 5am discussion:
"THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW FOCUSED ON A CLUSTER VERY NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION ... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT ... SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FELIX."
Moving a little faster now, it seems that Felix is destined to be, like Dean, a 'Straight Shooter' type system, with high confidence in taking it directly towards Central America, with a possible landfall in Belize nearing Cat 3 strength.
Shear is expected to remain low, so an even stronger hurricane wouldn't be out of the question by the end of the forecast period. Remember that mid and long range *intensity forecasts* have a much greater degree of error than do those regarding location, and all factors appear to be favorable, certainly not inhibitive.
All in all, it would appear that Felix could become a quite 'respectable' Caribbean Hurricane, which fortunately, should not effect US interests.
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