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Although still very unlikely to develop or be very strong, there could be an area to watch in the in little more than a week out from energy currently associated with the systems in the East Pacific.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 607 (Milton), US Major: 607 (Milton), FL Any: 607 (Milton), FL Major: 607 (Milton)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Reged:
Posts: 2671
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: looks like a TD to me at the least
Mon Sep 24 2007 11:15 PM

Looks like the official word is as many of us were expecting. The 11PM came down to whether or not to begin advisories on TD12, or Karen. As the discussion states:

2004 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE AROUND 25 KT AT THAT TIME. SINCE THEN...DEEP CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME
SPREAD IN THE CENTER LOCATION OF THESE ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

As for future track --- I'm only buying into the first 60 hours until we get some richer data in. What is more, as weathernet mentions, 12 is quite possibly going to be one of those large and strong enough to create their own environments, and thus to some degree, dictate their direction.

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least	cieldumort	Mon Sep 24 2007 11:15 PM
Re: GOM System	cieldumort	Tue Sep 25 2007 01:35 AM
Re: GOM System	oil tracker	Tue Sep 25 2007 12:45 AM
GOM System	danielw	Tue Sep 25 2007 12:21 AM
TD 12	danielw	Tue Sep 25 2007 12:15 AM

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