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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
Loc: Orlando, FL
Noel Over Cuba, Weaker
      Mon Oct 29 2007 06:25 PM

Midnight EDT Update 31 October 2007
Noel has started moving more north and is approaching a "wall" of sorts to moving much further west. No Tropical Storm watches have been issued for Florida, and this will likely remain the case.

The current forecast track takes Noel abruptly to the north and east over tomorrow, and things are shaping up for this to be the most likely scenario,

For discussion of other, less likely, scenarios check out this thread here.
What's it like in your area? Let us know here


11AM EDT Update 30 October 2007
Surface reports in Cuba have confirmed that Noel has made its way westward into Cuba. This should keep the system weak, the forecast still calls for a sharp northeastern turn, but because of more land interaction, will likely stay weak or fall apart before it gets to the Bahamas.

No Tropical Storm watches or warnings for Florida have been issued, as the system is still expected to pass to the east of Florida. The pressure gradient will keep the wind brisk for the next few days in Florida, however.



Since the system is still moving west at this hour, it is still possible for Tropical Storm Watches in Southeast Florida. Noel still needs to be watched until the projected turn has been made.

An interesting possibility is that the storm keeps moving west and reenters the Caribbean sea, missing the current kick out to sea. This would keep Noel in the Caribbean for a few days before anything else came along to move it out. This is less likely, but if it continues more westward it becomes more likely.



Original Update
Tropical Storm Noel has moved away from Haiti, and has now entered the Atlantic south of the Bahamas. The forecast track takes it generally Northwest and then Recurving back to the northeast once between the Bahamas and South Florida.

Noel has caused at least 20 reported deaths in Haiti due to mudslides an rain. Parts of Hispaniola received as much as 30 inches of rain.



This may force Tropical Storm Watch for a good chunk of South Florida tomorrow, with the pressure gradient as large as it is, winds will be felt well away from the system, including Central Florida. Which may cause erosion and rough conditions at the beach. But most models suggest the system staying offshore. Many have trended west during the day today.

Slow to modest Strengthening is possible over the next few days, but the official forecast still holds it at no stronger than a Tropical Storm. The way it is set up now, the stronger the system gets, the more likely it will remain away from South Florida.

Due to the proximity to the Bahamas and South Florida, everyone in the cone should be prepared for a Tropical Storm, and perhaps make sure you still have hurricane supplies anyway in case of unexpected further west movement or strengthening.

The most likely scenario right now is that it remains offshore, maybe a few rain bands for south Florida, and gradient driven winds for a good chunk of Florida, some of which may be rough. Be very mindful of this for Halloween night.

Radar Loops
Flhurricane Long Term Noel Radar Approach Recording
Large Florida Composite Radar Loop
Large Miami Radar Loop
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne FL}}
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville FL}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami, FL}}
{{radarlink|tba|Tampa Bay, FL}}
Cuban Radar
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Noel|16|16|2007|1|Tropical Storm Noel}}

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Noel Over Cuba, Weaker MikeCAdministrator Mon Oct 29 2007 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker allan   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:26 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:25 AM
. * * Heads Up danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:56 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:27 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions dem05   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:02 PM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions cieldumort   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:35 PM
. * * CUBA current conditions danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:29 PM
. * * SE Florida current conditions danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:17 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:05 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track jessiej   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:49 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:33 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:34 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Bloodstar   Tue Oct 30 2007 06:11 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:55 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:55 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:50 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:40 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Old Sailor   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:31 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:23 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:14 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Steve H1   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:02 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:01 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:55 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:52 PM
. * * storm still moving west LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:49 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lamar-Plant City   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:34 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:24 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:10 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:38 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:35 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:32 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:15 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:56 PM
. * * Decoupled? Bloodstar   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:37 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:58 AM
. * * There is an "H" in the NHC's track - NO MORE vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:54 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:40 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:13 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:01 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:54 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lamar-Plant City   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:51 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:42 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ChessieStorm   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:05 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track craigm   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:00 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 09:58 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 30 2007 09:44 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 09:39 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:18 AM
. * * There is an "H" in the NHC's track vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:06 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:05 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel dem05   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:04 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel dem05   Tue Oct 30 2007 06:28 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel cieldumort   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:02 AM
. * * More-not what you wanted to hear danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:41 AM
. * * Re: Non Tropical model run weathernet   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Non Tropical model run danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:33 AM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas weathernet   Mon Oct 29 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 29 2007 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2007 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas nowhammies   Mon Oct 29 2007 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2007 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2007 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Haiti, Moving Toward Bahamas vineyardsaker   Mon Oct 29 2007 06:43 PM

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