cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean
Mon Dec 10 2007 06:43 PM
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This is starting to look really close. One can easily make the argument that 94L is nearly as developed now as Gabrielle was when first named, relatively speaking; subtleties still exist. On the other hand, Gabrielle has been a somewhat controversial call - being a highly sheared system, and originally more subtropical in nature - there are plenty who feel her upgrade was a bit premature, if not altogether generous.
Things seem to be right down to the line for the pros tonight. With the expectation that the cyclone is forecast to remain in a marginally favorable environment for less than another 24 hours, the decision to name may not be as easy as was the case with Gabrielle, which was largely expected to enjoy marginally favorable conditions for several (more) days. Nonetheless, 94 has shown a great deal of persistence, and a slow but rather steady improvement has continued basically uninterrupted for about two days and nights now.
The LLC has had a tendency to pull a slight bit northward more and more, towards convective flares, while the system overall continues to track generally westward. It now seems reasonable enough for this set of eyes to conclude that just a few more convective flares with a few more tugs of the LLC should do the trick. One such flareup is underway at present, with some cloud tops cooler than -60 having gone up to the northwest of the LLC. Prior deep bursts have tended to remain due north to northeast, so this really could be the start of that missing ingredient, working up an environment more sufficient. As it is, NRL has had a TCFA up for 94L since at least early this morning.
Future track and intensity of the cyclone are likely further complicated by potential interactions with the mountainous islands along its path. Given the tenacity, I can imagine the LLC doing a bit more jumping, should they get in the way, but this could also seriously disrupt whatever chance it has of strengthening beyond a marginal to mid-range named storm.
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