We now have something that is definitely worth watching. Tropical Depression Six has formed east of the Caribbean, and it seems ready to strengthen into Erika fairly fast. The eastern Caribbean will have to watch this, as it may show up soon.
After this, the models have the storm going both straight west across the Caribbean and into the Southeast bahamas, the latter puts us in Florida more on the alert, but this is still days away. As is usual for this type of advanced "projected guessing" persistence is the key. See where the models deviate and which direction they trend toward. Also ignore them. The immediate concern is how they will interact with the Caribbean islands, and folks along there should be watching this one very closely.
More to come as the storm progresses. Note we have had an unusually large amount of storms for it not being even August yet.
We'll be watching. Additional comments from Ed Dunham are in the Storm Forum and can be found here .
Danny has weakened, but may yet still be around a while as it is forecast to do a large loop in the Atlantic.
And the damage from Claudette has cased 5 counties to be declared disaster areas in Texas. Damage estimates for Claudette are in the $60-$80 million range.
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