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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
The Basin - West to East
      Tue Jul 29 2003 10:54 PM

At first glance everything appears quiet, but that may change in a few days. This season started so early that the end of July seems like the halfway point rather than the normal beginning of the season. I glanced back at other seasons which had an early start and compared the season totals against the Spring ENSO conditions for each of the five recent active early seasons. To be honest, I can't find much of a correlation, but here are the results:

1959 - 5 named storms through the end of July - total of 11 for the season - Neutral SSTs
1966 - 5 named storms through the end of July - total of 11 for the season - weak El Nino
1989 - 4 named storms through the end of July - total of 11 for the season - weak La Nina
1995 - 5 named storms through the end of July - total of 19 for the season - Neutral SSTs
1997 - 5 named storms through the end of July - total of 8 for the season - moderate El Nino

So far we've had 4 named storms and the Spring ENSO conditions were Neutral.

The Basin:
East coast trough - Invest 99L - noticed an area of cyclonic turning today near 24N 76W in the central Bahamas. Still fires convection from time-to-time. Not moving much at all and continues to have some potential for future development.

Central Atlantic tropical wave - may have a weak circulation center near 8N 48W, but system has no real organization.

Tropical low south of the Cape Verde's near 10N 24W - Invest 90L - system has a good convective envelope to the south. If the circulation can hold together, this system has development potential in three or four days.

Not quite in the Basin yet is a strong wave over northwest Africa near 15N 5W - seems to have a low level circulation and with its more northern latitude this may be the future Invest 91L by early next week.

Lots of areas to keep an eye on in the days ahead.
ED

Additional comments from Ed Dunham are in the Storm Forum and can be found here .

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.



Edited by CFHC (Tue Jul 29 2003 11:45 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The Basin - West to East Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Jul 29 2003 10:54 PM
. * * Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO Jamie   Sat Aug 02 2003 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO HanKFranK   Sat Aug 02 2003 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO Cycloneye   Sat Aug 02 2003 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO javlin24   Sat Aug 02 2003 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO Steve H.   Sat Aug 02 2003 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO javlin24   Sat Aug 02 2003 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO Steve h.   Sat Aug 02 2003 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO javlin24   Sun Aug 03 2003 06:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO 57497479   Sun Aug 03 2003 08:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO Storm Cooper   Sun Aug 03 2003 07:16 AM
. * * if you look really carefully at the invest bobbi aka lois   Sun Aug 03 2003 08:11 AM
. * * Re: if you look really carefully at the invest 57497479   Sun Aug 03 2003 09:42 AM
. * * Sayonara? Doesnt look good Bobbi   Sun Aug 03 2003 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 02 2003 01:26 PM
. * * low in atlantic alex   Wed Jul 30 2003 04:50 PM
. * * Re: low in atlantic met   Wed Jul 30 2003 06:04 PM
. * * Re: low in atlantic HanKFranK   Wed Jul 30 2003 06:38 PM
. * * data alex   Wed Jul 30 2003 04:17 PM
. * * interesting(somewhat trivial) fact Alex   Wed Jul 30 2003 04:01 PM
. * * Introducing..... LoisCane   Wed Jul 30 2003 04:10 PM
. * * Cape verde low Alex   Wed Jul 30 2003 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Cape verde low Storm Cooper   Wed Jul 30 2003 06:39 PM
. * * Kevin's New Avatar ! Rad   Wed Jul 30 2003 07:41 PM
. * * One More Day WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Jul 30 2003 09:31 PM
. * * Re: TD #8 ? Tropics Guy   Wed Jul 30 2003 10:37 PM
. * * Re: TD #8 ? clyde w.   Wed Jul 30 2003 11:24 PM
. * * Re: TD #8 ? Storm Cooper   Thu Jul 31 2003 06:00 AM
. * * Re: TD #8 ? 57497479   Thu Jul 31 2003 06:32 AM
. * * Re: TD #8 ? Rich B   Thu Jul 31 2003 06:43 AM
. * * Re: TD #8 ? javlin24   Thu Jul 31 2003 08:02 AM
. * * Re: TD #8 ? stormchazer   Thu Jul 31 2003 09:42 AM
. * * Re: TD #8 ? javlin24   Thu Jul 31 2003 12:32 PM
. * * Re: TD #8 ? tornado00   Thu Jul 31 2003 12:44 PM
. * * Re: TD #8 ? Dolphinshahahaha   Thu Jul 31 2003 01:18 PM
. * * Re: TD #8 ? islander   Thu Jul 31 2003 01:36 PM
. * * Thank you HAHA LoisCane   Thu Jul 31 2003 02:26 PM
. * * NE of PR Bill   Thu Jul 31 2003 03:53 PM
. * * i think... there are two centers within the wave... bobbi aka lois   Thu Jul 31 2003 05:32 PM
. * * going active anytime.. HanKFranK   Thu Jul 31 2003 06:49 PM
. * * Re: going active anytime.. Storm Cooper   Thu Jul 31 2003 07:04 PM
. * * Re: going active anytime.. Robert   Thu Jul 31 2003 07:48 PM
. * * Re: going active anytime.. Storm Cooper   Thu Jul 31 2003 07:59 PM
. * * Re: going active anytime.. Frank P   Thu Jul 31 2003 08:33 PM
. * * Re: going active anytime.. islander   Fri Aug 01 2003 09:43 AM
. * * Re: going active anytime.. caneman   Thu Jul 31 2003 08:37 PM
. * * Re: going active anytime.. Frank P   Thu Jul 31 2003 08:45 PM
. * * Re: going active anytime.. caneman   Thu Jul 31 2003 08:49 PM
. * * another track meet? Frank P   Thu Jul 31 2003 08:57 PM
. * * Re: another track meet? caneman   Thu Jul 31 2003 09:02 PM
. * * Anyone See my Convection? clyde w.   Thu Jul 31 2003 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Anyone See my Convection? Robert   Fri Aug 01 2003 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Storm south of Bahama Mary K.   Fri Aug 01 2003 07:04 AM
. * * Re: Storm south of Bahama Storm Cooper   Fri Aug 01 2003 07:52 AM
. * * What The hell Happend Robert   Fri Aug 01 2003 09:43 AM
. * * 90 L--perking up? Kevin   Fri Aug 01 2003 01:18 PM
. * * Re: 90 L--perking up? javlin24   Fri Aug 01 2003 01:54 PM
. * * almost there.. HanKFranK   Fri Aug 01 2003 02:58 PM
. * * Re: almost there.. lisagolias   Fri Aug 01 2003 03:53 PM
. * * Re: almost there.. 57497479   Fri Aug 01 2003 06:15 PM
. * * Re: almost there.. Storm Cooper   Fri Aug 01 2003 07:53 PM
. * * go figure..about to write it off and bursts a bit LoisCane   Fri Aug 01 2003 02:47 PM
. * * Re: go figure..about to write it off and bursts a bit javlin24   Fri Aug 01 2003 09:03 PM
. * * 90L HanKFranK   Sat Aug 02 2003 12:30 AM
. * * Re: 90L stormchazer   Sat Aug 02 2003 05:26 AM
. * * Re: 90L 57497479   Sat Aug 02 2003 09:20 AM
. * * Re: 90 L--perking up? islander   Fri Aug 01 2003 01:25 PM
. * * Re: 90 L--perking up? Kevin   Fri Aug 01 2003 01:53 PM
. * * Re: i think... there are two centers within the wave... Young Droop   Thu Jul 31 2003 06:34 PM
. * * Re: NE of PR Bill   Thu Jul 31 2003 04:51 PM
. * * 90L Rich B   Thu Jul 31 2003 05:16 PM
. * * Re: TD #8 jth   Thu Jul 31 2003 11:08 AM
. * * Good Water Vapor Loop Frank P   Thu Jul 31 2003 11:16 AM
. * * Joe B jth   Thu Jul 31 2003 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Joe B LoisCane   Thu Jul 31 2003 01:14 PM
. * * Possible TC Rich B   Wed Jul 30 2003 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Possible TC jth   Wed Jul 30 2003 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Possible TC tornado00   Wed Jul 30 2003 01:39 PM
. * * they turn north early often... LoisCane   Wed Jul 30 2003 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Possible TC tornado00   Wed Jul 30 2003 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Possible TC Kevin   Wed Jul 30 2003 01:31 PM
. * * what would pull the cv wave that far north?? perhaps LoisCane   Wed Jul 30 2003 01:54 PM
. * * Re: what would pull the cv wave that far north?? perhaps Kevin   Wed Jul 30 2003 02:26 PM
. * * Re: what would pull the cv wave that far north?? perhaps Joe   Wed Jul 30 2003 02:58 PM
. * * Re: what would pull the cv wave that far north?? perhaps Cycloneye   Wed Jul 30 2003 02:02 PM
. * * TWO 11:30AM EDT Jamie   Wed Jul 30 2003 11:14 AM
. * * From the 8:05AM EDT TWD Jamie   Wed Jul 30 2003 10:53 AM
. * * From NWHHC 10:00am garyb   Wed Jul 30 2003 10:26 AM
. * * humility HanKFranK   Tue Jul 29 2003 11:36 PM
. * * Re: humility Steve   Wed Jul 30 2003 01:43 AM
. * * bon voyage Steve.. find an internet cafe somewhere please LoisCane   Wed Jul 30 2003 10:13 AM
. * * Still early to say if it misses the islands or not. Cycloneye   Wed Jul 30 2003 07:49 AM

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