Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2106
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The Basin - West to East
Tue Jul 29 2003 10:54 PM
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At first glance everything appears quiet, but that may change in a few days. This season started so early that the end of July seems like the halfway point rather than the normal beginning of the season. I glanced back at other seasons which had an early start and compared the season totals against the Spring ENSO conditions for each of the five recent active early seasons. To be honest, I can't find much of a correlation, but here are the results:
1959 - 5 named storms through the end of July - total of 11 for the season - Neutral SSTs
1966 - 5 named storms through the end of July - total of 11 for the season - weak El Nino
1989 - 4 named storms through the end of July - total of 11 for the season - weak La Nina
1995 - 5 named storms through the end of July - total of 19 for the season - Neutral SSTs
1997 - 5 named storms through the end of July - total of 8 for the season - moderate El Nino
So far we've had 4 named storms and the Spring ENSO conditions were Neutral.
The Basin:
East coast trough - Invest 99L - noticed an area of cyclonic turning today near 24N 76W in the central Bahamas. Still fires convection from time-to-time. Not moving much at all and continues to have some potential for future development.
Central Atlantic tropical wave - may have a weak circulation center near 8N 48W, but system has no real organization.
Tropical low south of the Cape Verde's near 10N 24W - Invest 90L - system has a good convective envelope to the south. If the circulation can hold together, this system has development potential in three or four days.
Not quite in the Basin yet is a strong wave over northwest Africa near 15N 5W - seems to have a low level circulation and with its more northern latitude this may be the future Invest 91L by early next week.
Lots of areas to keep an eye on in the days ahead.
ED
Additional comments from Ed Dunham are in the Storm Forum and can be found here .
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by CFHC (Tue Jul 29 2003 11:45 PM)
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