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Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3507
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
93L Nearing the GOM
      Sat Jun 27 2009 08:26 PM

Evening roundup...

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FL TO THE TX
COAST WILL SPLIT LATE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE SEPARATES FROM ITS PARENT WAVE. THE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S CENTRAL GULF WATERS
TONIGHT AND LIE UNDER THE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AND CUT OFF CYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BASICALLY
EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO BEGIN DRIFTING E SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH
A LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH. THE LOW HAS THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND LATEST GUIDANCE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE SO TONED DOWN THIS
MORNINGS TEXT PACKAGE AND TONING DOWN GRAPHICAL PACKAGE IN
PROGRESS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
WHILE NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N87W SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA TO 7N89W IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 18N. ISOLATE MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER ALL OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN
COUNTRIES IN PART FROM FORCING BY THE WAVE IN PART FROM NORMAL
AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE TROPICS. NUMEROUS STATION...BUOY...
AND A 1506Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A DISTINCT TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE...BUT AS OF YET NO SURFACE LOW. THE GFS 700 MB ANALYSES
SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS LEVEL.
THE WAVE IS ALSO WELL-DEFINED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH A MAXIMUM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
236 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

VALID JUN 27/1200 UTC THRU JUL 01/0000 UTC

...DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE NAM HAS MAINTAINED ITS IDEA THAT SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
NO CLEAR SIGNAL AS TO WHICH IF ANY EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY AS SEEN IN H700mb VORTICITY FIELD. THE GFS
KEPT A MORE DISCRETE ENTITY ROUNDING THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN
OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z SOLutioNS FROM THE NCEP MODELS ARE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR EARLIER SOLNS. THE 12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS IDEA IN BRINGING A DISCRETE VORTicity CENTER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN AND THEN LETTING THE SYStem MEANDER
NORTHWARD. THE UKMET IS CLOSER TO THE NAM IDEA IN NOT BEING AS
WELL DEFINED. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THINK THAT THE NAM IS
TOO WEAK/UNDERDEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE. WOULD FAVOR AN
ECMWF/UKMET/GFS COMPROMISE IN TERMS OF BOTH POSitioN AND STRENGTH.

lower case letters inserted to replace abbreviations~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 27 2009 08:31 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching the Gulf, but Not Expecting anything for the week. MikeCAdministrator Sat Jun 27 2009 08:26 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 gatorman   Mon Jul 13 2009 05:09 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 M.A.   Mon Jul 13 2009 04:51 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 Lee-Delray   Mon Jul 13 2009 07:58 AM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 10 2009 10:32 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 gatorman   Fri Jul 10 2009 08:41 PM
. * * Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 Jane   Fri Jul 10 2009 07:06 PM
. * * El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 10 2009 05:41 PM
. * * Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 02 2009 03:17 PM
. * * Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch gatorman   Thu Jul 02 2009 10:42 AM
. * * Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch scottsvb   Thu Jul 02 2009 10:20 AM
. * * 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 02 2009 07:32 AM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. cieldumort   Sun Jun 28 2009 06:16 PM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. hogrunr   Sun Jun 28 2009 05:18 PM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 28 2009 03:54 PM
. * * Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. cieldumort   Sun Jun 28 2009 01:36 PM
. * * Re: 93L Nearing the GOM danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 28 2009 08:28 AM
. * * Re: 93L Nearing the GOM doug   Sun Jun 28 2009 07:32 AM
. * * area east of florida Robert   Sun Jun 28 2009 04:49 AM
. * * Re: 93L Nearing the GOM dem05   Sun Jun 28 2009 02:45 AM
. * * 93L Nearing the GOM danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 27 2009 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Sat Jun 27 2009 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 27 2009 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 27 2009 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday OrlandoDan   Sat Jun 27 2009 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 27 2009 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Sat Jun 27 2009 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 27 2009 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Sat Jun 27 2009 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday docrod   Fri Jun 26 2009 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday hogrunr   Fri Jun 26 2009 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday cieldumort   Fri Jun 26 2009 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday LadyStorm   Fri Jun 26 2009 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday cieldumort   Fri Jun 26 2009 04:36 PM
. * * Western Caribbean System in GOM Sunday danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday CDMOrlando   Fri Jun 26 2009 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up LoisCane   Fri Jun 26 2009 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up HCW   Fri Jun 26 2009 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up hogrunr   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 26 2009 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up hogrunr   Fri Jun 26 2009 09:52 AM

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