Loc: Orlando, FL
Western Atlantic Basin Becoming More Active
Fri Jul 02 2010 06:59 AM
11PM EDT Independence Day Update
Invest 95L located at 27.7N 90.3W at 05/00Z. As quickly as the system seemed to spin up this afternoon, it has spun down this evening. NHC still says a 20% chance for tropical cyclone development in the next couple of days, but those chances are probably on the decline. System is drifting west at 5mph with very limited convection.
Invest 96L has multiple centers between Grand Caymen Island and northeast Honduras at 05/00Z and has a 50/50 chance for additional development in the next couple of days. The system has slowed down and seems to be moving generally to the northwest at 10mph into a zone of light but increasing north windshear. Although buoys/ships have reported winds close to TS strength, the wave still appears to be an open system.
A third active wave east of the Islands near 14.5N 59.5W at 05/00Z has developed additional convection and could become an area of interest in a few days. Thunderstorms observed at Barbados earlier today - the Windward Islands can expect showers and gusty easterly winds on Monday.
An area of earlier convective development in the Bahamas has quieted down this evening. The area is quasi-stationary and its future development chances are low.
5:30PM EDT 4 July 2010 Update
95L in the Gulf suddenly has spun up quite a bit this afternoon, and has a chance to become a depression/storm. If so it would be a very small system, similar to Marco in 2008.
Many are "out of pocket" today, so we'll update as soon as possible.
8:25AM EDT 4 July 2010 Update
The low in the Gulf looks like it will be history today, as it was never expected to develop.
However the wave in the western Caribbean (96L) has a much better overall chance to develop, and could in the next few days. If it were to form it would most likely take the westerly track and wind up in Mexico. The situation is slightly different than with Alex, so it'll require monitoring by those in the Gulf through the week.
8:35PM EDT 3 July 2010 Update
Nothing much as changed during the day regarding the two areas. The area in the western Caribbean is not being tracked as an invest at this time. The area in the Gulf is being tracked as an invest (95L) because of proximity to US land, but is still not expected to develop.
The low in the Gulf is on its way to dissipating, and likely will not develop. IT has less than !0% chance to, and dropping.
This leaves a good tropical free weekend for those in the Atlantic Basin, last next week it may change, but for now ifor those in the US, enjoy the independence and holiday.
The areas to watch for later in the week are a wave in the Central Atlantic, and a disturbance in the Western Caribbean.
Hurricane Alex was a large hurricane, and caused a great deal of flooding rains, but for South Texas it was far south enough to only have minimal surge. In Mexico, things were much worse, but it also made landfall in a mostly unpopulated area.
What comes after Alex? It's likely to be a quiet weekend for development, but there are things to watch, especially after that, and a lot of rain in the Northeastern Gulf.
The Gulf has too much northerly shear right now and has a low chance for anything to form in it in the short term. There is an area of lower pressure that is the remnants of a mid latitude system. Since it is close to land and is worth watching to see if conditions change.
There is however, tons of moisture in the Gulf will cause a lot of extra rainfall in the southeast either way. There is a low chance (10%) of development here. It would take a while for anything to transition to tropical here.
This system is being tracked as Invest area 95L.
Most likely the system in the Gulf will not develop.
Another viable potential wave right now is one in the Central Atlantic (near 40W), but that probably won't even get a shot at development until it gets much closer to the Caribbean.
Models are picking up something in the West Caribbean for early next week as well.
Those in Texas/Mexico will have to deal with the Flooding Rains. Otherwise, for those in the US, enjoy independence weekend, but keep watching the tropics.