Loc: Orlando, FL
Watching Two Systems
Thu Jul 15 2010 03:04 PM
6:30 PM Update 21 July 2010
There is still no low level circulation is correct, if one were to form tomorrow it would probably be right near or just south of the Caicos islands in the Caicos Bank. But the make or break will be tomorrow.
It has on more night of shear (tonight) to survive before conditions improve tomorrow. The upper level low is moving out toward the west now, away from the system.. If it makes it through relatively intact tonight then it has a real shot for development tomorrow. Track wise it's still seems south Florida/straits is the odds favorite, again deepening if it develops tomorrow or not. If it doesn't develop tomorrow, chances drop off greatly it will this side of Florida.
Thankfully, odds are that it is just a rainmaker for south Florida.
A new area (98L) Is being tracked in the Bay of Campeche, this was the wave mentioned earlier in the week in the NHC outlook that was in the West Caribbean at the time at 20.0N 92.8W, more to come on this system soon.
Another area in the far eastern Caribbean may be worth watching next week.
7:00 AM Update 21 July 2010
The tropical wave north of Hispaniola (97L) has diminished in activity, but overall development chances are still high for the next 48 hours, at around 60%.
The good news is that it will likely remain weaker, which means a more westerly track, at least in the short term, is more likely. The most likely scenario at the moment is rain or a moderate Tropical Storm approaching south Florida Friday or Saturday, but it could take longer if the forward motion of the system remains erratic or if the center changes. If it remains weaker for much longer, the further south it would likely stay, and may miss Florida to the south (although South Florida may still get rain out of it)
Recon is scheduled to head out there this afternoon. (Update: This was canceled) It is possible a center forms further east of where the current estimate is, which would drag the time line out longer. The forecast models that take it further west (and through the Florida straits) keep the system weak.
The system's convection will probably re-fire this afternoon and have a real shot at development Tomorrow.
It's under the influence of shear around the edges of the system, and the upper level low to the northwest of the system is keeping the wave down. In short things are trending back in the right direction for less of an impact. Those in the Bahamas, Keys, Central and South Florida should continue to monitor the system, as there is potential for things to change rapidly.
7:30 PM Update 20 July 2010
The chances for the wave to develop within 48 hours have increased to 60%, and indeed, by Thursday we could have a system. The wave is currently near 19.4N 67.4W and is moving generally west northwest around 10 mph.
Those in the Bahamas will need to watch this one closely, and those in South Florida will want to monitor this system very closely if it develops. Note if it were to develop, then tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings would likely go up for South Florida as early as Thursday, earlier for parts of the Bahamas. Those in East Central Florida also will want to watch for any trends that may bring it further north.
If it were to make landfall in Florida, it would likely be Friday.
Some people are still having missing images on flhurricane.com, we have made another tweak to fix it, but it may take a few hours for it to show up.
7:00 AM Update 20 July 2010
Not much has changed since yesterday on the wave north of Puerto Rico.
It still remains under heavy influence from an upper level low and a lot of negative factors for development, which may not let up until Thursday. There is a 30% chance it could develop in the next 48 hours, but currently it doesn't look all that impressive. The center was actually relocated a little southeast of yesterday's position.
Track forecast is fairly similar, it's moving slowly generally westward and how far south it stays depends on the riding. Most likely it stays in South Florida/Florida Straits (or even further south) nd brings some rain to the area. However that may change, once it gets near the Bahamas we may have a better idea of the future of the system.
Currently it's bringing heavy rain to eastern Puerto Rico.
7:00 AM Update 19 July 2010
A new area in the Leeward islands and just north, is now being tracked as 97L. This system will have to be closely watched over next several days as it is likely to enter the Bahamas.
This wave currently has a 20% chance for development. In the near term, shear will likely keep this from developing, but once it gets closer to the Bahamas that begins to drop off, so there is some chance for slow development then. Those in Central and mostly South Florida will want to watch this system as it nears the Bahamas, but most likely it will not have much of an impact at all.
What this wave has going against it is the upper level environment, and that should keep it in check in the short term.
97L currently is rather disorganized, an upper level low near the system is enhancing convection right now. It may not make it until Thursday when conditions begin to improve. Estimate of location is 19.2N 65.0W
A rather strong ridge building to the north is likely to keep this system on a westward track, into the Bahamas and possibly south Florida later (or more likely the Florida Straits or south) in the period, most likely as a rain maker. It will have to be watched for development since systems can change rapidly over that area.
That said, If it were to develop, the most likely time would be around Thursday. This is when shear may abate some, and an upper high may get a foothold. Right now it's dealing with 20-30 knots of wind shear, and an upper level low to the northwest of the system. Ironically, if the upper level low moves far enough away to the west and dies out, it may wind up having a play in spinning up 97L.
This week will likely see an increase in overall activity from the last two weeks, especially the latter half of this week..
The other area in the West Caribbean isn't being tracked as an invest yet, but it may be worth watching if it gets to the Bay of Campeche intact. It also has a 20% chance for development.
One of flhurricane's image servers went down over the weekend, there will be a day or so where some of you may see blank images, but it should clear up by the end of the day as the dns changes propagate.
3:30 PM Update 16 July 2010
Although nothing appears to be developing over the weekend, there are a few areas being watched, but nothing being tracked as an "Invest area"
There is a low area over the northern Gulf of Mexico that has a small chance to develop, but is not likely. It's worth watching only for the proximity to land. The hurricane center gives this area about a 10% chance.
Another area in the Western Caribbean is approaching land and is running out of time to develop, the hurricane center gives this one about a 10% chance.
Another area, not mentioned by the hurricane center, in the Florida Straits. This upper level low south of Florida appears to have developed a weak mid to low level circulation near 23.5N 80.5W at 16/14Z. The upper low is moving west at about 6 knots and is situated just off the north coast of central Cuba. Westerly windshear at 25mph should curtail any further development for the next couple of days.
In short a few things to watch, but nothing to track.
The generally slow pattern of mid-July continues. It will likely become more active in a few weeks, but there is not much going on right now.
There is one area in the Central Atlantic, currently not being tracked as an invest, that the national hurricane center gives a 10% chance for development. With the sal north of it, I'd give it a little less, but it is something to watch over the next few days.
Most likely nothing will come out of it.