Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Watching Wave 95L for Next Week
Fri Aug 13 2010 03:48 PM
8 AM EDT 20 August 2010
The first sign of activity for next week is the East Atlantic system, designated 95L this morning.
This system is likely to develop slowly at first, but is fairly likely to develop. But not until early next week (Monday or Tuesday).
Once it does develop, odds highly favor it becoming a hurricane that goes out to sea well before the islands of the Caribbean.
6 PM EDT 19 August 2010
Continued slowness throughout the Atlantic basin, with two areas with a slight development chance.
The first area, in the West Caribbean is running out of time to develop and likely will just impact central America with rainfall, and another area in the far west Atlantic that may develop next week if it persists, but even if it does odds are it would stay out to sea.
There may be other activity next week to watch, but nothing this week.
7:45 AM EDT 18 August 2010
The area in the Caribbean likely won't develop and will just be a rainmaker, and the rest of the basin is fairly quiet, and likely to remain so most of this week.
7:45 AM EDT 17 August 2010
The remnants of Tropical Depression five have moved back onshore eliminating the chances for development it had, This leaves the Atlantic without any pending areas to track. Which for this time in August is pretty rare. One wave in the east Atlantic has fizzled and likely will not develop, another may later.
There is also an area in the East Caribbean that may be worth watching. Convection has increased as the wave interacts with an upper level low in the central Caribbean.
In short, not much happening in the next few days. Late this week into next week may get busy, however.
6:45 AM EDT 16 August 2010
The system formerly known as tropical depression 5 has a chance to reform as early as this afternoon, but will likely only bring more rainfall to the area. Most of the rain is currently offshore and south of the center of the storm, which right now is just south of Panama City Beach in the Florida panhandle.
The system is forecast to loop over the gulf and make landfall again somewhere near the Louisiana/Mississippi border likely Thursday.
In the meantime the system has a chance to become a Tropical Storm and cause minor surge and plenty of rainfall. For most areas of the gulf it will be a non-event.
Beyond that, it is quiet in the Atlantic, and the next hint of development may be in the Eastern Atlantic late this week.
7 AM 15 August 2010
It's mid August, and with a mostly quiet Atlantic there is a system that has hung around and is likely to move back over water, the former Tropical Depression #5 area.
The system is currently near Montgomery, Alabama, the area is expected to drift southward over the Florida Panhandle and re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico overnight tonight, there it has a brief opportunity to regain strength and become a tropical depression or storm again. Conditions are actually more favorable once it gets back into the gulf than when TD#5 originally formed.
Looping tropical systems are notoriously hard to predict, but the best guess is another landfall early Wednesday near Louisiana as a tropical storm or depression.
Overall though, Odds are that it just will continue to bring rain, as the biggest issue with it developing is likely to be not enough time over water.
The remnants of former TD5 are now over eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama. NRL position estimate at 13/18Z was 31.4N 88.2W. Some models poke it back out over the northern Gulf, but as weak as this system has become, I don’t think that it would be of much consequence since some models still maintain a mid-level low over the Florida panhandle and Alabama. Area is worth watching since heavy rain potential still exists in Alabama. Added: At 14/00Z the center position estimate was 32.2N 87.0W - the system has been moving to the northeast on Friday - away from the coast.
A broad area of lower pressure north of Panama and east of Nicaragua has some cyclonic curvature. The area is centered near 13.5N 79W and has been stationary. Convection remains on the outer limits of the system. The Atlantic side of Panama has no windshear, but the Pacific side is under moderate easterly shear. There is a slight chance for some slow development in this area.
A non-tropical system east of the Carolinas is developed into a stronger system by many of the longer range models and slowly transitioned into a more tropical system as it heads off to the northeast. Probability for tropical cyclone development is still low, but it has some potential and worth keeping an eye on.
A well developed tropical wave will exit the west African coast at about 18N in a couple of days – this wave has remained intact and large and looked well developed when it was at 17E quite a few days ago. Another SAL outbreak started yesterday and now extends south to the Cape Verde Islands, so like others before it, this new wave will have dry air ahead of it to contend with. But this one seems to have enough structure to have a better chance for survival and could become a tropical system in about a week.
Sat24 West Africa Loop
Just some areas to watch - nothing is expected to develop in the next few days.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 21 2010 10:17 AM)