cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Too soon?
Sun Sep 12 2010 01:36 AM
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Quote:
I notice NHC now has 3 areas of interest marked. I guess if you mark every circular cloud formation in the Atlantic basis, eventually you will have named enough systems to match your predictions at the start of the season.
Actually, if anything, the NHC has been perhaps a bit conservative this year with what Invests they have upgraded to an officiated tropical cyclone. There were so far two Invests I have tracked thus far which I would not have batted an eye had they been designated a TC officially and in real-time by NHC (one of them arguably qualifying as a TS, in fact).
In addition to the two Invests I mentioned above, there is reason to believe that Hermine was a Cat 1 hurricane into and/or just after landfall, and also that Alex had attained minimal Cat 3 heading into landfall. In fact, at 947mb, the min central pressure in Alex into landfall was at a level very often associated with Category 4 hurricanes.
Now as to the three features currently highlighted by the NHC for potential development, one, Invest 93L, is in reality probably already a tropical depression (and currently listed as a 90% probability of an upgrade within 48 hours - again, a very conservative call).
Another, Invest 92L, currently highlighted for a 60% chance of becoming a TC, is probably about spot on. While not yet a tropical cyclone, it has the kind of internal and external preconditions for TC development that easily warrant a forecast of about 60% chance of development over 48 hours.
The final area is flagged for a 10% chance of further development. Again, this seems reasonable given how soon this feature is likely to become entangled with an approaching front.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 12 2010 12:52 PM)
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