Loc: Orlando, FL
Lisa in East Atlantic, Area in East Caribbean
Mon Sep 20 2010 06:29 AM
7:30AM Update 21 September 2010
Tropical Depression #14 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Lisa this morning, and is expected to stay that way for the next 4 or so days as it slowly moves around in the East Atlantic. This system likely will be no threat to land.
Another area, not marked as an invest, is worth watching as several long range models (GFS, EMCWF) are trending toward the possibility of a Gulf coast US impact. As it has not formed yet, it's just a general watch area, but it has a good chance to develop later in the week or weekend.
Those in Honduras and Nicaragua will want to watch this system closely.
The odds currently slightly favor it turning more northward into the gulf, and being a possible impact somewhere along the central and eastern half of the gulf, but confidence is only about 60%. It's the first Caribbean developing system of the year that the odds favored that vs going more westerly into the Yucatan (Which is also still a possibility with this). So this area will probably be the story for the next week or two.
Still, as of now it hasn't formed, and until then, just be aware of it and watch the trends.
10:45PM Update 20 September 2010
Tropical Depression 14 forms from 94L in the far eastern Atlantic, the official forecast takes it to tropical storm strength, but not beyound. It is already moving north and likely to stay far out to sea.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up in Newfoundland as Igor will come close enough to bring Tropical Storm Force Winds.
Julia has dissipated, and is no longer being tracked.
Nothing else is likely to form until perhaps the weekend. The area currently over the eastern Caribbean is this next likely spot to watch over the rest of the week.
Hurricane Igor moved roughly 70 miles west of Bermuda, sparing the absolute worst, but still causing a great deal of coastal flooding, and a lot of power outages and downed trees across Bermuda. The full extent won't be know until later today.
Igor is now headed for a close approach to Newfoundland in Canada, it should increase winds along the coast there, but avoid a direct landfall. It should weaken down to Tropical Storm strength today, and head to extratropical tomorrow.
Julia continues to weaken, and probably will be gone by tomorrow night.
The area in the east Atlantic (94L) has a good chance to develop today, and has a shot to become a hurricane, but should recurve well before any land.
Any other development probably won't happen until late in the week into next week, and the Caribbean is the most likely spot for that.
There will be a short break of no storm threats to land, but October has a larger than normal chance for activity closer to home than usual this year.
Bermuda Radar Recording of Igor Approach (flhurricane)
Mark Sudduth over at hurricanetrack has a video stream from Bermuda
Another live stream from Bermuda
A new wave, in the far eastern Atlantic has been designated 94L and likely will stay out to sea.