Tied For Third - FLHurricane.com

With Tomas, the 2010 season now has had 19 named storms – which ties this season for third place (along with 1887 and 1995) for the highest number of named storms in a season. 2005 had 28 named storms and 1933 had 21. 2010 also had 13 named storms after August 31st – second only to 2005 with 16. The organizations that forecast a seasonal outlook did a fine job of it this year. CSU, TSR and WSI all anticipated a highly active season of 18 named storms on their April forecasts – and it was all of that and more.

For CFHC, the annual contest produced a few forecasts that were still too high, but quite a few more (myself included) that were way too low. Although I didn’t think that it would make all that much difference in the seasonal totals, the ultra-warm SSTs at the beginning of the season in the far eastern Atlantic did indeed make quite a difference. The season is not yet officially over until the end of November (or even later if Mother Nature so dictates), but Tomas was probably the last storm that we will see in this remarkably active year. The totals for the year are now at 19 Named Storms with 12 Hurricanes and 5 Major Hurricanes.

Nobody hit the exact totals (perfect score), but there were 3 Excellent forecasts (total error of 1-3) and 8 Good forecasts (total error of 4-6). There were 20 other forecasts that didn’t do so well this year but your willingness to participate in the contest was certainly appreciated – and hopefully you (and I) will have better luck next year. A few of the inputs were not scored because the forecasts presented a range of numbers rather than an exact number. Kudos to the following folks for a job well done on the seasonal forecast for 2010 (format is User Name, Forecast, and score):

cieldumort: 19/11/6 – 2
Glen Johnson: 20/10/5 – 3
MikeC: 17/11/5 – 3

Bloodstar: 21/12/7 – 4
Storm Hunter: 20/11/7 – 4
gsand: 17/11/4 – 4
ftlaudbob: 20/12/8 – 4
saltysenior: 17/11/3 – 5
Chris566: 18/8/5 – 5
stormtiger: 17/8/5 – 6
weathernet: 17/14/7 – 6

Coming in with a score of 7, which is still pretty good in such an active season were rmbjoe1954 and okihabu. Even if there is another storm before the end of the year, the names listed above would not change and no new names would be added. In a few weeks I’ll start the process all over again in the Storm Forum with my initial thoughts for the level of activity in the 2011 season.
ED

Post Extras

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US

ADS