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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Tropical System Approaches South Florida
Wed Aug 13 2003 03:47 PM

At 19Z a Tropical Disturbance appears to be forming a low level center near 26.1N 75.9W (with considerable margin for error) or about 250 miles east of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Movement is to the west, perhaps even slightly north of due west, at 15 knots. Winds near the formative center are estimated at 25 to 30 knots with pressure estimated at 1010mb.

The system has gained better organization during the day and if this trend continues, formation of a Tropical Depression seems likely later this evening. Squalls extend outward about 100 miles to the west of the center and about 150 miles to the north, east and south of the center. Squalls should reach the southern half of the Florida east coast well before sunrise on Thursday with some squalls producing tropical storm force gusts and brief heavy downpours.

Since most of the 'weather' is east of the developing center, rain squalls should last through mid afternoon along the Florida east coast, and into the evening along the Florida west coast.

If the system continues to develop, there is a chance that it might reach Tropical Storm intensity just before landfall Thursday morning, so residents of southeast Florida should monitor the progress of this developing system closely. All residents from about St. Augustine southward can expect a wet and windy commute Thursday morning.

ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

Edited by CFHC (Wed Aug 13 2003 06:49 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Ed Dunham	Wed Aug 13 2003 03:47 PM
the other area	Alex	Thu Aug 14 2003 06:54 PM
THE wave...	bobbi... really	Sun Aug 17 2003 08:52 PM
Other noteworthy area	Alex	Thu Aug 14 2003 05:02 PM
west winds	Alex	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:26 PM
low level circulation forming?	Alex	Thu Aug 14 2003 02:27 PM
Re: low level circulation forming?	clyde w.	Thu Aug 14 2003 02:52 PM
Re: low level circulation forming?	J.J.	Thu Aug 14 2003 03:23 PM
Re: another ULL?	Tropics Guy	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:03 PM
recon found SW wind	Brad in Miami	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:18 PM
Re: recon found SW wind	clyde w.	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:27 PM
Re: recon found SW wind	Brad in Miami	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:33 PM
Re: recon found SW wind	Frank P	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:41 PM
ERIKA	Bill	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:50 PM
Re: ERIKA- upgraded by NHC at 1600 8/14	Bill	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:53 PM
Re: ERIKA- upgraded by NHC at 1600 8/14	Frank P	Thu Aug 14 2003 05:00 PM
Re: ERIKA- upgraded by NHC at 1600 8/14	Frank P	Thu Aug 14 2003 05:03 PM
Re: ERIKA- upgraded by NHC at 1600 8/14	Steve	Thu Aug 14 2003 05:34 PM
TS Erika	Rich B	Thu Aug 14 2003 05:27 PM
Re: ERIKA- upgraded by NHC at 1600 8/14	Bill	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:57 PM
Non-Weather Bulletin	clyde w.	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:56 PM
Re: Non-Weather Bulletin	Rich B	Thu Aug 14 2003 05:29 PM
Re: another ULL?	Frank P	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:14 PM
NRL	garyb	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:20 PM
Re: NRL	Rich B	Thu Aug 14 2003 04:24 PM
low level circ?	Alex	Thu Aug 14 2003 11:45 AM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Cocoa Beach	Thu Aug 14 2003 11:23 AM
low level center	Alex	Thu Aug 14 2003 11:18 AM
Re: low level center	stormchazer	Thu Aug 14 2003 12:10 PM
Re: low level center	Rad	Thu Aug 14 2003 12:21 PM
Re: low level center	Steve	Thu Aug 14 2003 12:40 PM
Re: low level center	scottsvb	Thu Aug 14 2003 01:24 PM
Re: low level center	Joe	Thu Aug 14 2003 01:08 PM
Re: low level center	caneman	Thu Aug 14 2003 01:25 PM
Re: low level center	Brad in Miami	Thu Aug 14 2003 02:21 PM
Re: low level center	andy1tom	Thu Aug 14 2003 11:46 AM
60 mph gust	Alex	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:31 PM
Re: 60 mph gust	Brad In Mia mi	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:35 PM
What's your guess	CocoaBeach	Wed Aug 13 2003 08:31 PM
Re: What's your guess	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 13 2003 08:59 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	mp3reed	Wed Aug 13 2003 06:40 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 13 2003 05:28 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	javlin24	Wed Aug 13 2003 07:37 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 13 2003 07:59 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	javlin24	Wed Aug 13 2003 08:14 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	TROPIC KING	Wed Aug 13 2003 08:06 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	TROPIC KING	Wed Aug 13 2003 08:15 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	TROPIC KING	Wed Aug 13 2003 08:32 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	TROPIC KING	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:03 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Ray	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:21 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	caneman	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:24 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Tropics Guy	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:33 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	RBL	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:36 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	TROPIC KING	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:49 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	PFSThunder	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:28 PM
Some Answers	Ed Dunham	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:55 PM
Re: Some Answers	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:02 PM
Tropical System Approaches South Florida	WXMAN RICHIE	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:36 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:18 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	squirralee	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:28 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:39 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Steve	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:47 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Storm Cooper	Thu Aug 14 2003 06:05 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:30 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Jamie-on-dabyu	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:02 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	lisagolias	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:09 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	clyde w.	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:11 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Steve	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:12 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	BillD	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:31 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Tropics Guy	Thu Aug 14 2003 12:20 AM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	javlin	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:22 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	clyde w.	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:17 PM
interesting	Robert	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:25 PM
New center or MLC?	Bill	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:02 AM
Re: New center or MLC?	Hurric	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:37 AM
someone have a link please	LoisCane	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:57 AM
Palm Bay Florida report	Floridacane	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:10 AM
Re: Palm Bay Florida report	Mary K.	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:40 AM
Saint Cloud	PFSThunder	Thu Aug 14 2003 11:09 AM
Re: Saint Cloud	PFSThunder	Thu Aug 14 2003 12:01 PM
Re: Palm Bay Florida report	Steve	Thu Aug 14 2003 11:04 AM
Re: Palm Bay Florida report	javlin	Thu Aug 14 2003 03:33 PM
Re: Palm Bay Florida report	caneman	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:50 AM
Re: Palm Bay Florida report	Lisa NC	Thu Aug 14 2003 11:08 AM
Re: New center or MLC?	Hurric	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:10 AM
Re: New center or MLC?	andy1tom	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:38 AM
Thanks Robert...	bobbi	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:54 PM
Re: Thanks Robert...	Steve-unplugged	Thu Aug 14 2003 12:26 AM
Re: Thanks Robert...	BillD	Thu Aug 14 2003 12:51 AM
Re: Thanks Robert...	LadyStorm	Thu Aug 14 2003 05:11 AM
Re: Thanks Robert...	Storm Cooper	Thu Aug 14 2003 06:06 AM
since when does a 1.5 rate a designation?	LoisCane	Thu Aug 14 2003 09:17 AM
Re: since when does a 1.5 rate a designation?	Storm Cooper	Thu Aug 14 2003 06:11 PM
Re: since when does a 1.5 rate a designation?	met	Thu Aug 14 2003 06:46 PM
Re: Thanks Robert...	57497479	Thu Aug 14 2003 06:33 AM
Re: Thanks Robert...	JustMe	Thu Aug 14 2003 08:05 AM
Re: Thanks Robert...	stormchazer	Thu Aug 14 2003 09:14 AM
Port St. Lucie, Florida report	Hurric	Thu Aug 14 2003 09:23 AM
Re: Port St. Lucie, Florida report	Ray	Thu Aug 14 2003 09:52 AM
Closed circulation	Bill	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:00 AM
Re: Port St. Lucie, Florida report	LoisCane	Thu Aug 14 2003 09:44 AM
Re: Thanks Robert...	andy1tom	Thu Aug 14 2003 09:21 AM
Re: Thanks Robert...	Steve H.	Thu Aug 14 2003 07:58 AM
Re: Thanks Robert...	Steve	Thu Aug 14 2003 08:00 AM
Re: Thanks Robert...	Steve	Thu Aug 14 2003 12:47 AM
Re: Interesting note	Jim M	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:21 PM
Hey Jamie...	Steve	Wed Aug 13 2003 11:06 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	squirralee	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:43 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Storm Cooper	Thu Aug 14 2003 06:07 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Justin in Miami	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:42 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:50 PM
Heh.	Steve	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:35 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	HanKFranK	Wed Aug 13 2003 08:49 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Rad	Wed Aug 13 2003 08:07 PM
bigger picture	HanKFranK	Wed Aug 13 2003 08:47 PM
Re: bigger picture	BillD	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:40 PM
Re: bigger picture	BillD	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:05 PM
Re: bigger picture	JustMe	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:19 PM
Re: bigger picture	BillD	Wed Aug 13 2003 10:39 PM
Re: bigger picture	stormchazer	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:02 PM
Re: bigger picture	k___g	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:07 PM
Re: bigger picture	caneman	Wed Aug 13 2003 09:14 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	javlin24	Wed Aug 13 2003 06:14 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Rich B	Wed Aug 13 2003 06:18 PM
Tropical System Approaches South Florida	WXMAN RICHIE	Wed Aug 13 2003 06:40 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Rich B	Wed Aug 13 2003 06:56 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 13 2003 06:37 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	BillD	Wed Aug 13 2003 07:02 PM
Tropical System Approaches South Florida	WXMAN RICHIE	Wed Aug 13 2003 07:12 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	BillD	Wed Aug 13 2003 07:24 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 13 2003 07:36 PM
Recon??	ShawnS	Wed Aug 13 2003 07:34 PM
Re: Recon??	TROPIC KING	Wed Aug 13 2003 07:36 PM
Yeah I noticed it...	Steve-Unplugged	Wed Aug 13 2003 05:37 PM
Re: Yeah I noticed it...	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 13 2003 05:44 PM
I got off my lazy butt and logged in...	Steve	Wed Aug 13 2003 05:41 PM
Re: I got off my lazy butt and logged in...	GATOR	Wed Aug 13 2003 05:56 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Tropics Guy	Wed Aug 13 2003 05:05 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Will from Miami	Wed Aug 13 2003 04:06 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Tropics Guy	Wed Aug 13 2003 04:15 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Jim M	Wed Aug 13 2003 05:18 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Steve H.	Wed Aug 13 2003 05:23 PM
Dvorak	Brad in Miami	Wed Aug 13 2003 04:16 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Will from Miami	Wed Aug 13 2003 03:58 PM
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida	Brad in Miami	Wed Aug 13 2003 04:12 PM
Winds Increasing Along The Gold Coast	WXMAN RICHIE	Wed Aug 13 2003 04:23 PM
Re: Winds Increasing Along The Gold Coast	The Saints	Wed Aug 13 2003 05:15 PM
Thank You Ed.. love the new room/board	bobbi	Wed Aug 13 2003 04:09 PM

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