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80% chance for something tropical to form around Saturday in the Gulf. Lots of rain for Florida and the NE Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 228 (Nate) , Major: 246 (Maria) Florida - Any: 256 (Irma) Major: 256 (Irma)
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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3504
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
May 2012 Preseason
      Sun May 13 2012 03:04 PM

Sorry about the length of the post. Forecaster is very good with the week ahead forecast. Starting Wednesday Morning.
Models can be inaccurate!
Bold emphasis added~danielw
Posted one hour after transmission:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
203 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 12Z WED MAY 16 2012 - 12Z SUN MAY 20 2012

...COASTAL LOW/NOR'EASTER POSSIBLE NEAR THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND...

OUTSIDE THE 00Z CANADIAN GUIDANCE BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING...THE
AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN. TROUGHING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE RIDGING EXISTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND A DEEP CYCLONE MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SINCE THERE WAS SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT...USED A
40/30/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS PREFERENCE LED TO GOOD CONTINUITY.

THE DEEP CYCLONE/NOR'EASTER FORECAST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HYBRID SYSTEM AS IT HOVERS
NEAR THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. EVEN IF IT REMAINS COLD CORE...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
LEAD TO LOWERED PRESSURES/DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE BASE OF ITS UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...NORMALLY A PROBLEM WHEN A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE
FORMS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA. HEAVY COMMA HEAD
RAINS/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA/NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A
MORE COASTAL ROUTE AS SEEN IN THE 00Z ECMWF. IF IT DEVELOPS AND
STAYS FARTHER OFFSHORE...IT COULD EVOLVE INTO A WILDFIRE CONCERN
FOR SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA WHICH ARE WITHIN THEIR
ANNUAL SPRING DROUGHT...SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION SEEN DURING
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREAS DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY MAY 2007. THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN BY ECMWF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS
IS DIFFERENT THAN THAT OF 2007 EVOLUTION OF ANDREAS...BUT THE
FINAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANDREAS INTO ITS SUBTROPICAL FORM IS SIMILAR
IN THE MID LEVEL H500 FLOW OF THIS EVENT.

VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES OF GFS/ECMWF/CMC CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALREADY HAS A SYSTEM READY TO GO AND WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SEE NHC DISCUSSIONS. THE ATLANTIC SIDE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD ALSO HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A
LARGE NUMBER OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING THE OPERATIONAL
RUN WITH THE SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND.
BEYOND THIS TIME
FRAME LONGER TERM RUNS OF GFS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING TROPICAL SYSTEMS
IN THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN WITH AN EXIT NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD.
THIS IS ANOTHER INDICATION THAT THE MODELS RECOGNIZE FUTURE
FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS OR CYCLOGENESIS.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE
WITH AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LOW SOUTHWARD OF
THE EARLY PRELIMS OFF THE SC COAST AS A BETTER FIT TO LAGGED
AVERAGE FORECASTS OF ECMWF AND GFS.

AFTernooN FINALS REMAIN THE SAME. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR EARLIER PROGS
BY HIRES UKMET OVER CONUS AND ADJACENT WATERS. SOUTHEAST SEABOARD
LOW FORECAST SE OF CAPE FEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z ECMWF DAYS
6-7.
ROTH/ROSENSTEIN

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Nothing Much Going On... Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun May 13 2012 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Much Going On... srquirrely   Sat Feb 04 2012 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Much Going On... Lamar-Plant City   Sun Feb 05 2012 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Much Going On... danielwAdministrator   Fri Apr 13 2012 12:30 AM
. * * May 2012 Preseason danielwAdministrator   Sun May 13 2012 03:04 PM
. * * Re: May 2012 Preseason danielwAdministrator   Mon May 14 2012 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Much Going On... Lamar-Plant City   Sat Feb 04 2012 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Much Going On... danielwAdministrator   Tue Nov 29 2011 08:37 PM

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